December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[dendrite]

It snows like 30 straight hours here…WAA to an undercutting low to a rotting inverted trough with H7 goodies.

[tunafish]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Here too, But its not consistent so far run to run as usual.

how's it looking down this way?  asking for a 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not even scanning models for threats right now because I just can't place any stick into it.

I look at them all but doesn't mean i believe everything i'm seeing........lol

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You’re prob fine in SE MA….maybe really early morning there could be a few icy spots in interior SE MA.
 

 But most of the ice looks more deeper interior and by Xmas evening it’s mostly ORH county and over to Essex county actually. 

Driving to Colchester, CT.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna have to watch for ZR Xmas day over the interior. NAM and 3k are both still showing this possibility. Doesn’t look like a lot of precip or anything but with people visiting family it could cause some nasty back road conditions…only takes a little. 

Yeah nice icy look. Hope it keeps sliding SE to coast for travelers 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

I look at them all but doesn't mean i believe what everything i'm seeing........lol

Yea, I just don't care enough to at this point. I need a break from that...probably until near the NY.

[dryslot]

Just now, tunafish said:

how's it looking down this way?  asking for a 

[SouthCoastMA]

looks plausible for tomorrow

[40/70 Benchmark]

Watching DT's latest video, I got the impression that he feels that the cold will bleed east after the New Year, but that the boundary will stall out down in the mid atl...with overrunning from the OHRV into the mid atl. Looked cold and dry up here. Not sure I buy the gradient setting up that far south....at least I hope not.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can't remember a period in which my confidence in guidance was lower. The only thing that I can say with confidence is that this isn't going to be one of those super PV seasons, January thaw not withstanding.

This. 

It really is just a guessing game as to what will transpire. 

Those who like cold/snow can make a justification as to why it will be cold/snowy. Those that like warm can make a justification as to why it will be warm lol. 

But at the end of the day confidence is any type of outcome is about as close to zero as you can get. Subtle changes within some key features = significant implications on the outcome.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Watching DT's latest video, I got the impression that he feels that the cold will bleed east after the New Year, but that the boundary will stall out down in the mid atl...with overrunning from the OHRV into the mid atl. Looked cold and dry up here. Not sure I buy the gradient setting up that far south....at least I hope not.

Not with that SE ridge. My hope was it to bleed east as well, but now we lose some -NAO so I highly doubt we are cold and dry. I don't see how that is possible at the moment. At least early January. 

[Torch Tiger]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Regardless of the political line in the sand artists place themselves in these days. I just think his music is and was always weak but he made a good living making it sound like he has talent…so he did something right. 

He is actually a multi-instrumentalist,  professional DJ and producer ( he produced most of his records iirc)   dude is loaded with talent

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not with that SE ridge. My hope was it to bleed east as well, but now we lose some -NAO so I highly doubt we are cold and dry. I don't see how that is possible at the moment. At least early January. 

I agree. He was using the EPS....which as Forky just pointed out, has been having to correct milder.

[EasternLI]

22 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The signs were there for much of the fall for a potential rat winter. 

 

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

UHMMM please point to where I cancelled winter and/or wrote that winter is over...

 

[SouthCoastMA]

looking back a few days ago the GEFS and GEPS we're dead wrong about the post Christmas period. I think they got too happy trying to crush the se ridge

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

He is actually a multi-instrumentalist,  professional DJ and producer ( he produced most of his records iirc)   dude is loaded with talent

100% correct. Fantastic and ultra talented musician . Highly respected in the rock , rap and country world 

[Typhoon Tip]

No one asked but ... I really don't care about white Xmas as an experience.   I think in my youth it may have been 'neat to see' but ... for having grown up in that late 1970s through the '80s, I was impelled to give up on any illusions in that regard.  You know, even those fantastic winters of in the last 70s, I don't think there was a lot of snow around prior to Christmas's,  but that's getting close to the event horizon of my quantum emergence ..so my recall is fuzzier.  

Come to think of it... maybe there is a reason in the song Irving Berlin wrote about "...Dreaming of white Christmas," he dreamed:  If it was far more common, ...he wouldn't need to ever dream of it.   It would be, "I'mmm  dreamin' of seeing friends and family. Without being found after the spring thaw exposed"

Anyway, I've been more getting a kick out of watching the technology of man ...struggle to claim the right vision in this hurried entropic  circulation that is so anomalous in its own characteristic, it feels like we'd be better off using a crystal ball. 

There is no statistical/climatology for f'ed up circulation modes - that would be a neat Standard Deviation come to think about it... heh. Like, a period of increasing threat, per assessment, with the caveat emptor being that it is taking place in a +7 SD "veiny" circulation inch ...I mean risk.  Talking about the models trying to operate in a -EPO/-NAO, with 15 contours of height gradient mashing the HC so far S it only "looks" like it's not there f'n bums out of winter storms.  It is... deal with it.

But snark aside, the GFS has failed twice to do what it started insisting again - not lending confidence.  For some three day's worth of model cycles, it's been jamming a light to middling S/W and associated ...whatever it can muster, through the NAO deformation wall.  Yesterday ... the ICON of all guidance starts nodding.  We laugh. Then the Euro, probably the most not-happeningest model that ever no-ed a Debbie Downer depiction ...comes on board with it ... and we still laugh - probably defensively.  Can't say we blame... because it's all rain.   That's a dark comedy for the winter enthusiasts...  when the GFS coups ( finally! ) for butting heads with the NAO deformation wall, it coups with rain. 

For what it's not worth ( and that's probably a LOT of not ... ), the NAO may actually help bring snow back. If the nuances of the large forcing allows this thing to squirt through, it is just as possible that it actually corrects S over these next couple of days of runs - it is climatologically a better track guidance for -NAO exertion model. The problem is, this fast flow is happening, while the NAO is doing that - that's an unusual combination of very large circumstance, causing oddities at smaller scales.  This thing's whole mechanical manifold as it squeezes through is down to meso-beta scaled. It's like trying to target a hurricane!

 

[Great Snow 1717]

8 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

 

 

 

8 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

 

 

The key word there is "potential"...

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

 

The key word there is "potential"...

 

 

I see the other side of the argument.....record warm fall followed by a very warm December during a healthy la nina season screams rat....but, there are conflicting signals because the blocky December and coolish Novie following a warm October does not.

We will see what happens, but my money is on the latter indicator.

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

meh define "suck" and what you're measuring. 

 

Umm  ...    really -

[CoastalWx]

RGEM dries up tonight and fairly dry on Christmas. LOL.

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can't remember a period in which my confidence in guidance was lower. The only thing that I can say with confidence is that this isn't going to be one of those super PV seasons, January thaw not withstanding.

by PV and super .... do you mean as in a hugely +AO ??

Or do you mean one of these SPV buzz saws in Canada -

Those are both PV 'flavors' that obviously offset the other.  A strong JB presentation is a "weak PV" relative to AO convention/domain geography ...blah blah semantics, but, it is in fact still a strong PV.  

Sorry but it's worth the distinction...  I was just looking over the 00z opertional runs out in the totally mentally responsible time range of D10 ... in a canon muzzle velocity flow regime no less... and taking note at how the Euro operational and the GFS operational, are actually in shockingly good agreement on a very strong SPV rollin' through mid and lower Canada on that day.  Neither the EPS nor the GEFs means around that time span agree - these operational version really divorce their ens systems pretty glaringly - if not for the day 10ness of it ... that might seem strange.

It's not about whether it happens, but I'm curious "IF" something like the operational blend did ...that might force the numerical EOFs to pop a +PNA by virtue of nadir weighting. These are excessively deep anomalies, such that the delta(HT) scalar values would drive the PNA calculation results, up -

believe it or not, this would transiently induce a +PNA calculation:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

RGEM dries up tonight and fairly dry on Christmas. LOL.

This is exactly why I don't bother tracking that crap...if it happens to snow at my house, great.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

RGEM dries up tonight and fairly dry on Christmas. LOL.

Both icon and rgem have nada for 12/26. GFS will be interesting. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

by PV and super .... do you mean as in a hugely +AO ??

Or do you mean one of these SPV buzz saws in Canada -

Those are both PV 'flavors' that obviously offset the other.  A strong JB presentation is a "weak PV" relative to AO convention/domain geography ...blah blah semantics, but, it is in fact still a strong PV.  

Sorry but it's worth the distinction...  I was just looking over the 00z opertional runs out in the totally mentally responsible time range of D10 ... in a canon muzzle velocity flow regime no less... and taking note at how the Euro operational and the GFS operational, are actually in shockingly good agreement on a very strong SPV rollin' through mid and lower Canada on that day.  Neither the EPS nor the GEFs means around that time span agree - these operational version really divorce their ens systems pretty glaringly - if not for the day 10ness of it ... that might seem strange.

It's not about whether it happens, but I'm curious "IF" something like the operational blend did ...that might force the numerical EOFs to pop a +PNA by virtue of nadir weighting. These are excessively deep anomalies, such that the delta(HT) scalar values would drive the PNA calculation results, up -

believe it or not, this would transiently induce a +PNA calculation:

 

I just mean that it isn't going to be like a 2019-2020, or 2011-2012 death star parked over the NP. Its also likely to fragment again during the second half.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Both icon and rgem have nada for 12/26. GFS will be interesting. 

Yeah... really, it's a fantastic philosophical voyage with that ultimately forgettable thing, huh -

I mean - imho - there should be no system with an NAO shunt.  I mentioned that last night... crash ... wake up, to find that all model have 'some'thing now.  Whaaa

So, I think it would almost be a interesting testament to an era where prediction/deterministics may be in an era-specific all-time low, if nothing does happen. That means that every model took turns being a piece of shit waste of electrons and man-hours.

[weatherwiz]

37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No one asked but ... I really don't care about white Xmas as an experience.   I think in my youth it may have been 'neat to see' but ... for having grown up in that late 1970s through the '80s, I was impelled to give up on any illusions in that regard.  You know, even those fantastic winters of in the last 70s, I don't think there was a lot of snow around prior to Christmas's,  but that's getting close to the event horizon of my quantum emergence ..so my recall is fuzzier.  

Come to think of it... maybe there is a reason in the song Irving Berlin wrote about "...Dreaming of white Christmas," he dreamed:  If it was far more common, ...he wouldn't need to ever dream of it.   It would be, "I'mmm  dreamin' of seeing friends and family. Without being found after the spring thaw exposed"

Anyway, I've been more getting a kick out of watching the technology of man ...struggle to claim the right vision in this hurried entropic  circulation that is so anomalous in its own characteristic, it feels like we'd be better off using a crystal ball. 

There is no statistical/climatology for f'ed up circulation modes - that would be a neat Standard Deviation come to think about it... heh. Like, a period of increasing threat, per assessment, with the caveat emptor being that it is taking place in a +7 SD "veiny" circulation risk.  Talking about the models trying to operate in a -EPO/-NAO, with 15 contours of height gradient mashing the HC so far S it only "looks" like it's not there f'n bums out of winter storms.  It is... deal with it.

But snark aside, the GFS has failed twice to do what it started insisting again - not lending confidence.  For some three day's worth of model cycles, it's been jamming a light to middling S/W and associated ...whatever it can muster, through the NAO deformation wall.  Yesterday ... the ICON of all guidance starts nodding.  We laugh. Then the Euro, probably the most not-happeningest model that ever no-ed a Debbie Downer depiction ...comes on board with it ... and we still laugh - probably defensively.  Can't say we blame... because it's all rain.   That's a dark comedy for the winter enthusiasts...  when the GFS coups ( finally! ) for butting heads with the NAO deformation wall, it coups with rain. 

For what it's not worth ( and that's probably a LOT of not ... ), the NAO may actually help bring snow back. If the nuances of the large forcing allows this thing to squirt through, it is just as possible that it actually corrects S over these next couple of days of runs - it is climatologically a better track guidance for -NAO exertion model. The problem is, this fast flow is happening, while the NAO is doing that - that's an unusual combination of very large circumstance, causing oddities at smaller scales.  This thing's whole mechanical manifold as it squeezes through is down to meso-beta scaled. It's like trying to target a hurricane!

 

Disappointed...when I first started reading this I thought this was headed into the direction of a failed Christmas love story where you were running across campus knee-deep in snow trying to give your crush a good-bye kiss as she departed for semester break. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Disappointed...when I first started reading this I thought this was headed into the direction of a failed Christmas love story where you were running across campus knee-deep in snow trying to give your crush a good-bye kiss as she departed for semester break. 

That rendition ended in a yuletide restraining order from the merry elf, Christine.

[Modfan2]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna have to watch for ZR Xmas day over the interior. NAM and 3k are both still showing this possibility. Doesn’t look like a lot of precip or anything but with people visiting family it could cause some nasty back road conditions…only takes a little. 

I asked a few pages back have we ever had a Xmas day icing event? 

[CoastalWx]

GFS continues to say eff you to any block and keeps moving north. At least Christmas is mostly dry.