December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Dry.

Something tells me he already knew the answer to that....man, he must have really wanted to troll to fire one is five bullets on that lol

[leo2000]

Yesterday looked like the MJO was going to stall in Phase 7 now it looks like it moving along to Phase 8. 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

General rule of thumb is that winter blows when Tijuana is getting teabagged

[dendrite]

[Typhoon Tip]

It's a godsend for the western U.S. hydro -

Probably not a bad thing for them to continue along this course, regardless of what it means here.

[TrueBlue]

14 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Up to 46F here, but cloudy skies again. 

Snow is coming down pretty good at Sugarloaf.... 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

General rule of thumb is that winter blows when Tijuana is getting teabagged

Its too bad that the NAO ridge happened to position itself just the perfect distance from that heat ridge to royally pork us with that meat grinder.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a godsend for the western U.S. hydro -

Probably not a bad thing for them to continue along this course, regardless of what it means here.

Hopefully back into drought territory next year when the el nino develops.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its too bad that the NAO ridge happened to position itself just the perfect distance from that heat ridge to royally pork us with that meat grinder.

Well..east based would've meant more cutters..so what did we need ; it further west? 

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You know it’s bad when people are willing to risk it all for that inch on Xmas Eve day. 
 

one of these days one of these will drop measurable snow, may not be this winter, but it will happen 

Yeah we are all risking a lot of valuables hoping for an inch or two on Xmas Eve. Hopefully I have enough leftover for presents for the kiddies.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

He’s not wrong though. This is ridiculous 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we are all risking a lot of valuables hoping for an inch or two on Xmas Eve. Hopefully I have enough leftover for presents for the kiddies.

… at the very least… people are wasting time tracking and trying to will a juicier solution. It’s kind of nauseating at this point though. You’d think by dumb luck we’d get something 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Well..east based would've meant more cutters..so what did we need ; it further west? 

First of all, even if they did cut west, front enders would mean more snow than this. Secondly, its not just a longitude thing....if the RNA or the NAO ridges were weaker, there would have been less of a gradient.

Regardless, record RNA is difficult to overcome.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Well..east based would've meant more cutters..so what did we need ; it further west? 

Yeah further west would have actually been a little better...like over Hudson Bay and even into central Canada, but that is hard to do because it already becomes very west-based by Xmas....something further west is usually from a folded-over PNA ridge or something and not an NAO block.

[Sugarloaf1989]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, get us passed the holidays, and I prefer the torch to this. Something hopefully gives after the New Year...either shift the longwave pattern that is cursing us with this shear axis, or join the NAO with the heat ridge and be done with it.

I canceled meeting my son on Saturday and I'm leaving on Friday because I was afraid of driving in snow. Is it looking okay now, because I have a 200 mile drive. 

[Snowcrazed71]

I'm fine with whatever happens. When and if we get that surprise snowstorm, or that pattern shift it'll be exciting. Life is good regardless. There will be an awesome winter ahead,  and God willing I'll be here to see it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

He’s not wrong though. This is ridiculous 

Well, he's not wrong, either. I'm bored at work just melting like a snowbank on NYC in the dead of winter.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

… at the very least… people are wasting time tracking and trying to will a juicier solution. It’s kind of nauseating at this point though. You’d think by dumb luck we’d get something 

I mean, people on here track dewpoints all summer and others track 50F temps in winter....2" of snow on Xmas eve sounds like the World Series in comparison. Nobody is forcing anyone else to track these systems.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I canceled meeting my son on Saturday and I'm leaving on Friday because I was afraid of driving in snow. Is it looking okay now, because I have a 200 mile drive. 

Why cancel it over snowshowers?

GO

[IowaStorm05]

Am seeing some more consensus on around an inch for us here.

Ill take it

Because with these posts you’d think everything was completely cleared. But I realize not everybody lives in eastern CT

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm fine with whatever happens. When and if we get that surprise snowstorm, or that pattern shift it'll be exciting. Life is good regardless. There will be an awesome winter ahead,  and God willing I'll be here to see it. 

Thanks, tiny snowcrazed Tim.

God bless us, each and every one of us.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, people on here track dewpoints all summer and others track 50F temps in winter....2" of snow on Xmas eve sounds like the World Series in comparison. Nobody is forcing anyone else to track these systems.

Agreed, I think it's literally because it's on Christmas Eve..nothing more. Would be a festive look with a couple inches, or even 1"

Any other period, this system would be rightfully deserve a meh. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Agreed, I think it's literally because it's on Christmas Eve..nothing more. Would be a festive look with a couple inches, or even 1"

Any other period, this system would be rightfully deserve a meh. 

Yeah I'd prob barely track it if it wasn't Xmas Eve...and this does have a little bit of upside, because unlike the systems after it, it's not getting shredded to total crap. The shortwave maintains a little bit of integrity. So yeah while C-1" is probably the most common result....there's a legit shot at 2-3" too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Agreed, I think it's literally because it's on Christmas Eve..nothing more. Would be a festive look with a couple inches, or even 1"

Any other period, this system would be rightfully deserve a meh. 

Thing is, if it were a lock, then I would take some solace in that....but odds are it won't be a uniform distribution in the sense that the entire region will get it. That's why I just look past it.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro throwing us a bone as the ball drops.

[Hazey]

Difficult to get anything substantial from s/w's diving down from Timmins, ON. They can't turn the corner.   

[Typhoon Tip]

I've given up on trying to dispel the illusion of the -NAO ... I used to struggle to get that point across, and ultimately ...stopped struggling when it was clear that it never will

[tamarack]

After 1/2" snow and 4 hours of ZR, switched back to snow about 1:45.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I've given up on trying to dispel the illusion of the -NAO ... I used to struggle to get that point across, and ultimately ...stopped struggling when it was clear that it never will

You mean the illusion that its a panacea?

[ORH_wxman]

We'd probably have a week of 65F and tropical downpours with parakeets arriving at bird feeders if we didn't have that monster block...that western trough is very deep.

Tip is right that the block is also shredding shortwaves, but if they weren't, they'd be serving us Pina Coladas on the express tropical jet from Havana Cuba.