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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The ensembles still show a lot of light precip later Christmas and into the 26th so that tells me a lot to resolve. In any case, latitude matters. You'll have a better chance of retaining than Kevin because the cold is lurking near the border. Unless somehow you get a coating and he gets 2" or something like that.

Hopefully we both make out okay...his elevation should help.

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think shady areas, hilly areas etc can keep it . It’s fluff though

So far, so good....my neighbor across the street still has cover, and his property sun bathes all day. I am just over the line, though...legit 2 miles down the road to join the highway, and its just patches.....nothing once you hit 495 in I93.

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12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This. If it snows on Christmas Eve, great, if not, fine, it was always the most likely outcome

Yea, don't get me wrong...I'm not punting through NYE....but its just apparent that there is a great deal of volatility and the overall pattern, while improving, is not ideal....so I would adjust expectations accordingly until a plowable event is on your door step.

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3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Tiny flakes here, took 3 hours to reach 0.3" with temp about 21.  Local school district canceled, probably due the ice forecast.

They cancelled school here last night, Have some pellets mixing in, Waiting for the windshield to thaw so I can go to work.

 

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A big key moving into the upcoming couple of weeks is going to see exactly how the pattern evolves across Asia and the western Pacific over the next 3-5 days. We think the pattern here is chaotic and complex it's probably moreso across that part of the globe. This may also be tied into the MJO given how strong that signal is but ultimately how the pattern exactly sets up across the western U.S. will have huge impacts for us. Until that SE ridge signal weakens (which there is some support for that) we could just as easy end up in an above-average temp regime with cutters as we can a colder pattern with snow chances. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

A big key moving into the upcoming couple of weeks is going to see exactly how the pattern evolves across Asia and the western Pacific over the next 3-5 days. We think the pattern here is chaotic and complex it's probably moreso across that part of the globe. This may also be tied into the MJO given how strong that signal is but ultimately how the pattern exactly sets up across the western U.S. will have huge impacts for us. Until that SE ridge signal weakens (which there is some support for that) we could just as easy end up in an above-average temp regime with cutters as we can a colder pattern with snow chances. 

Looks slightly cooler than average for the next week or so around here.

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57 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think 1-3" is gone with one day of 35-40 at this time of year, especially if dews are low. Hell, my inch of crust from Saturday survived low 40s yesterday. The sun is so week....

Agreed....if you have under an inch, it may not survive...esp in lower elevation in the western zones where precip finishes pretty early....but further east, the clouds will be slower to depart and I think anyone who grabs close to 1.5-2" isn't losing it on 3 hours of temps in the upper 30s with a Christmas Eve sun angle. Might fall off the bushes or something, but you aren't melting a couple tenths of frozen QPF in a couple hours of low-dewpoint 35-40 temps with the weakest sun angle of the year. The Euro doesn't even clear out eastern zones until 18-19z...sun is starting to set by 19z....lol.

Hopefully it trends a little juicier in the final 24 hours. Could still end up as a dusting.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks slightly cooler than average for the next week or so around here.

Yeah we're like being saved by the -NAO right now and these sfc high's sliding across SE Canada. But we are really walking a fine line over the next few weeks...which pretty much defines the gradient pattern that's been discussed but we could just as easily end up on the wrong side. 

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