George001 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 When is the trough out west expected to go away? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How many inches are you expecting ? I'm ready to start measuring in feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah. Instead of being positively tilted and sucking out killer whales in Puget Sound, it should broaden a bit and move east. It will remain well west and force a SE ridge, but if you want low pressure and something with QPF, that’s what is needed. Hopefully weenies remain grounded and not expect epicosity. I think that still leads to attenuating waves here, but more juice than current...like what the GL are seeing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that still leads to attenuating waves here, but more juice than current...like what the GL are seeing now. It depends, but it's probably more of an overrunning or SWFE look too. You won't need 970 lows for decent QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, George001 said: When is the trough out west expected to go away? Don't expect it move away anytime soon. Your blizzard call FTL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How many inches are you expecting ? Said Kevin to his wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, George001 said: When is the trough out west expected to go away? After the next blizzard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, moneypitmike said: Said Kevin to his wife. Do you see what I see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don't expect it move away anytime soon. Your blizzard call FTL. oh well, hopefully we can get a few decent storms and be on the right side of the gradient for the next couple weeks, and then once the trough out west goes away we start getting big nor’easters in January and February. The pattern looked really good, but the trough out west kept strengthening as we moved up in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Said Kevin to his wife. When you were at the Blue last weekend , when I saw you from Dunkin’.. didn’t you say the dancer asked if you were innie or outtie? You mentioned something about that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 Maybe this illustrates things a bit better. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/12/actively-quiet-holiday-period-appears.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Is George still calling for a blizzard? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Is George still calling for a blizzard? Nope, my forecast busted again. I do think we get a couple of blizzards later in the winter though. The pattern change is getting delayed more than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe this illustrates things a bit better. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/12/actively-quiet-holiday-period-appears.html what website is that graphic from? it's cute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 hours ago, dendrite said: The euro has a little under 0.50" of glop tomorrow morning for the Lakes Region. Congrats CAR. Seems like the temps are pretty low. It is colder than forecast here by a few degrees and the sun will be down shortly. Skies are clear so there will be some rad cooling. My point being it will likely add to the pack and solidify it vs. eroding it. That's all I'm concerned about with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Seems like the temps are pretty low. It is colder than forecast here by a few degrees and the sun will be down shortly. Skies are clear so there will be some rad cooling. My point being it will likely add to the pack and solidify it vs. eroding it. That's all I'm concerned about with this one. Your dewpoint should stay at or below freezing, so damage is minimized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, George001 said: oh well, hopefully we can get a few decent storms and be on the right side of the gradient for the next couple weeks, and then once the trough out west goes away we start getting big nor’easters in January and February. The pattern looked really good, but the trough out west kept strengthening as we moved up in time. The trough out west has never disappeared on any guidance except maybe clown range on the weeklies a few c HC les ago. It just shifted east slightly….the theme will remain -PNA…maybe we get it closer to neutral deeper in January of the weeklies are right but don’t expect 1977 and 2015 ridges out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Love the white right against the coast. Besides the Olympics it usually doesn't snow that much in those mountains. Like being in Alaska or BC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Your dewpoint should stay at or below freezing, so damage is minimized. Thank you. Now we just have to get some snow on top of it. Hopefully something pops before New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe this illustrates things a bit better. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/12/actively-quiet-holiday-period-appears.html Yeah you shift everything eastward a little bit and you will get more storm amplification…but even just something nuanced like a little piece or spoke of the 50/50 PV lobe retrograding and phasing can cause a storm to pop. Something like that won’t been seen on guidance though until way closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 17 minutes ago, GCWarrior said: Love the white right against the coast. Besides the Olympics it usually doesn't snow that much in those mountains. Like being in Alaska or BC. Paradise Ranger Station (which I visited in June 1990) begs to differ. To thnk the Cascades don’t get too much snow is to not know the area at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Said Scooter to Taunton Blizz..... Did you see NAM at 18z...did you see NAM at 18z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Said Scooter to Taunton Blizz..... Did you see NAM at 18z...did you see NAM at 18z.... Heh… I literally wasn’t going to look at anything this afternoon/ evening. I feel like the Christmas Eve/ Christmas deals are basically chasing delusions at this point. Maybe someone sees some flakes, but your asking a lot from some pretty weak sauce looks for accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 If we can keep that Xmas eve shortwave just barely robust enough, the midlevel profile is pretty nice for snow growth....you have like -12C temps at 700mb and the SGZ is also pretty deep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Said Scooter to Taunton Blizz..... Did you see NAM at 18z...did you see NAM at 18z.... Looks like a solid coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you shift everything eastward a little bit and you will get more storm amplification…but even just something nuanced like a little piece or spoke of the 50/50 PV lobe retrograding and phasing can cause a storm to pop. Something like that won’t been seen on guidance though until way closer. Which is why although I am not exactly thrilled with anything I see going on right now, things could have a different look in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm ready to start measuring in feet You must be using the GGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If we can keep that Xmas eve shortwave just barely robust enough, the midlevel profile is pretty nice for snow growth....you have like -12C temps at 700mb and the SGZ is also pretty deep. I’m actually rooting for that one, but not sure it won’t get grinded a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like a solid coating Bunch of miserable SOBs. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 41 minutes ago, George001 said: Nope, my forecast busted again. I do think we get a couple of blizzards later in the winter though. The pattern change is getting delayed more than I thought. In this forum its like baseball, And i believe that was strike two, So........... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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