ineedsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Nam has a slp right over my fanny, Wut? huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 NAM is funny looking, just picks a cluster of convection and throws a low over it. I doubt it goes that far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I just have zero faith in anything on guidance right now....that's why I haven't even blogged about this week yet. So many head fakes this season. In my 25 years of model watching, I have seen a huge improvement in accuracy, particularly in the medium range. The models have never been this accurate. The problem is we keep looking further and further out and expecting greater and greater forecast precision.pre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I thought they were canceling the pathetic NAM. That’s all we kept hearing a year or two ago. But the Thing never goes away and just dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is funny looking, just picks a cluster of convection and throws a low over it. I doubt it goes that far offshore. Its OTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its OTL. That little inv trough signal is real though. It's basically a convergence zone. A weak closed isobar would not shock me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is funny looking, just picks a cluster of convection and throws a low over it. I doubt it goes that far offshore. Nam always does stuff like that 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: thought you meant the main low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is funny looking, just picks a cluster of convection and throws a low over it. I doubt it goes that far offshore. It is funny looking but it might not be far off. The main low across FL is quite a bit farther south than forecast models had indicated this would track. For example, TPA has been reporting NE winds since yesterday evening. Models (as late as 12z yesterday) had TPA predominately S winds then becoming NW as the low departed...indicating the sfc low was going to be tracking north of them. But it would appear the NAM tracks this sfc low directly off to the NE and probably far enough to limit any phasing. Models initially had this tracking NE just off the GA/SC coast and not hugging the coast but still close enough to the NE coast to get some phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Nam always does stuff like that thought you meant the main low I did mean the main low. The closed isobar on that inv trough is not far fetched to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: It is funny looking but it might not be far off. The main low across FL is quite a bit farther south than forecast models had indicated this would track. For example, TPA has been reporting NE winds since yesterday evening. Models (as late as 12z yesterday) had TPA predominately S winds then becoming NW as the low departed...indicating the sfc low was going to be tracking north of them. But it would appear the NAM tracks this sfc low directly off to the NE and probably far enough to limit any phasing. Models initially had this tracking NE just off the GA/SC coast and not hugging the coast but still close enough to the NE coast to get some phasing. Yeah i saw that. I think it should sort of develop and move closer to the baroclinic zone near the coast and move NE. But honestly it doesn't mean anything for me haha. Just something to watch in terms of meteorology I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Is that Boston harbor buoy or Stellwagen? I feel like Boston Harbor buoy gets solar issues in April because they spike during the day and cool at night. It shouldn’t be so diurnal. Tides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, eduggs said: In my 25 years of model watching, I have seen a huge improvement in accuracy, particularly in the medium range. The models have never been this accurate. The problem is we keep looking further and further out and expecting greater and greater forecast precision.pre I am talking 3-5 days out....in general models have improved, but they are struggling with this pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 17 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I am trying to get you to look on the bright side. Boston may not be good at reporting the weather BUT hey we can all celebrate that Boston only needed SIX more wins to win a WS title... I though they had a great season...could have won it, but didn't. They are ahead of where most expected them to be...I nailed the regular season, but wasn't sure they would win a round in the PS, but they did. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I though they had a great season...could have won it, but didn't. They are ahead of where most expected them to be...I nailed the regular season, but wasn't sure they would win a round in the PS, but they did. now that's upbeat! Forget the models for a day!..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah i saw that. I think it should sort of develop and move closer to the baroclinic zone near the coast and move NE. But honestly it doesn't mean anything for me haha. Just something to watch in terms of meteorology I guess. That's what I would figure too. It's not like this is an explosive area of convection either but there might be enough convective processes going on which is completely throwing off the NAM. but the NAM is completely shredding that southern energy apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 I wish the GEM would be right for xmas, but not even Santa could deliver that lol Hell, I would take the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Still no interest on the NAM for Christmas Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Still no interest on the NAM for Christmas Eve Probably a good thing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Still no interest on the NAM for Christmas Eve It's been moving south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 It will end up a SNE deal for both the 24-25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Seems like there is a bit of a displacement between more favorable ulvl dynamics and where the baroclinic zone exists? but instead of ejecting northeast as a more consolidated system it kinda has the appearance of just an open strung out piece of garbage wave. Very weird...I don't think the low ever really materialized. It looks like a hot mess. I was shocked to see the TOR watch when I hoped on this morning. I think there is dry air being wrapped into the low. Strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's been moving south. Not nearly enough… getting late in the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I feel like Christmas Eve may be a CT/RI thing to be honest. Maybe flurries or light snow to the north. That's fine if it means we can grab something 12/25. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Not nearly enough… getting late in the game? It's the NAM. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's the NAM. Its Tblizz. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Its Tblizz. It’s Scooter not being able to resist responding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It’s Scooter not being able to resist responding It's the holiday season and some people just need reaching out and help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Yeah NAM soundings aren't gonna cut it for here tomorrow morning...too much WAA around H9. We'll see what the globals say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 And let's talk about the possibility of a storm for the day after Xmas. It was mentioned by 2 of our local MET's here in CT and that they are keeping a close eye on it. Interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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