40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 12:42 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Long range going downhill pretty quickly Expand Phase 8 gets the PNA involved...7 isn't a death knell, but just means we will continue to deal with the RNA longer. Roll the dice enough with -NAO/RNA and we will hit on something. Phase 8 was always iffy in my mind.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 1:13 PM, MarkO said: So much variability this season, especially deterministic models. I'm not sure how you can be so dismissive, although I hear you in a sense that there hasn't been much at all to talk about in SNE. Expand Models shouldn't go past 200 hours , heck even 150 hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 12:44 PM, Torch Tiger said: On the bright side, days longer and later PLUS only two months more of winter! Expand Are you a baseball fan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 12:44 PM, Torch Tiger said: On the bright side, days longer and later PLUS only two months more of winter! Expand so you're forecasting winter to end on Feb 21. good to know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 1:15 PM, MJO812 said: Models shouldn't go past 200 hours , heck even 150 hours. Expand “I don’t have the self control to not look at them for as long as they go out, so they should stop at 150 hours.” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 1:18 PM, SJonesWX said: so you're forecasting winter to end on Feb 21. good to know. Expand If I had to give the edge to December or March as a winter March, it would be March TBH...it bares fruit more often for SNE. This season will be no different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 1:15 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Are you a baseball fan? Expand nah, but I do look forward to hearing about ST On 12/21/2021 at 1:18 PM, SJonesWX said: so you're forecasting winter to end on Feb 21. good to know. Expand Met winter ends March 1st, though in late Feb. you feel that sun angle hitting different, Spring-like. Around here, winter's done by then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 1:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I had to give the edge to December or March as a winter March, it would be March TBH...it bares fruit more often for SNE. Expand I agree with this but often comes with strings attached Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 1:13 PM, MarkO said: So much variability this season, especially deterministic models. I'm not sure how you can be so dismissive, although I hear you in a sense that there hasn't been much at all to talk about in SNE. Expand I just have zero faith in anything on guidance right now....that's why I haven't even blogged about this week yet. So many head fakes this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 1:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I had to give the edge to December or March as a winter March, it would be March TBH...it bares fruit more often for SNE. This season will be no different. Expand close to peak low water temps helps me. Feb/March > Dec/Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 1:24 PM, SouthCoastMA said: close to peak low water temps helps me. Feb/March > Dec/Jan. Expand SSTs are furnacing. Still 48-49 in BOS harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 I wouldn't get too bent out of shape about down east Maine getting nailed this week, though I know I joked about it, but with the RNA going nowhere we are going to need that polar drain from confluence moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 1:28 PM, CoastalWx said: SSTs are furnacing. Still 48-49 in BOS harbor. Expand Curious, when do they hit those temps on the return side of the cycle… May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 1:28 PM, CoastalWx said: SSTs are furnacing. Still 48-49 in BOS harbor. Expand I live just far enough to be enthused by that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 1:29 PM, powderfreak said: Curious, when do they hit those temps on the return side of the cycle… May? Expand I feel like Late April or early May? They start to rise quickly by then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 1:30 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I live just far enough to be enthused by that.... Expand You need a good SWFE to bring that inland a bit. Like 07-08 style. On the other hand, your location maxed out snow potential this round with your latitude and then coastal front collapse south. I consider than a win when areas at 1K in SNE are looking at their clean and green lawns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 1:34 PM, CoastalWx said: You need a good SWFE to bring that inland a bit. Like 07-08 style. On the other hand, your location maxed out snow potential this round with your latitude and then coastal front collapse south. I consider than a win when areas at 1K in SNE are looking at their clean and green lawns. Expand Congrats to me on winning the trailer park beauty pageant, I guess I was speaking more to coastals.....if it tracks inside the BM, that is a lot of fuel for a CF between 128 and 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 1:23 PM, Torch Tiger said: nah, but I do look forward to hearing about ST Met winter ends March 1st, though in late Feb. you feel that sun angle hitting different, Spring-like. Around here, winter's done by then Expand I feel like central Jersey northward March is a snowier month than December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 5:03 AM, MJO812 said: Cmc got a big upgrade Expand The equivalent of Carolina signing Cam Newton... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 1:29 PM, powderfreak said: Curious, when do they hit those temps on the return side of the cycle… May? Expand On 12/21/2021 at 1:31 PM, CoastalWx said: I feel like Late April or early May? They start to rise quickly by then. Expand Looks like mid May to hit 48 again. But it should be around 44 on average right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 12:51 PM, Damage In Tolland said: The entire thread other than a few icestorm posts has been about Xmas. No one cares about a soaking rain in S Wey Expand Have faith buddy. I watch Gil Simmons ( WTNH )live feed every morning on Facebook live. He is on board for a much colder ( and hopefully Snowier ) January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 6z GFS bufkit for KCAR. Now this is sexy. what a beautiful cross hair signature. Actually much more intense than the NAM too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 1:49 PM, OceanStWx said: Looks like mid May to hit 48 again. But it should be around 44 on average right now. Expand Is that Boston harbor buoy or Stellwagen? I feel like Boston Harbor buoy gets solar issues in April because they spike during the day and cool at night. It shouldn’t be so diurnal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 2:00 PM, CoastalWx said: Is that Boston harbor buoy or Stellwagen? I feel like Boston Harbor buoy gets solar issues in April because they spike during the day and cool at night. It shouldn’t be so diurnal. Expand Boston can't to do anything right in terms of reporting weather. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 12z Nam has a slp right over my fanny, Wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 2:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Boston can't to do anything right in terms of reporting weather. Expand look on the bright side according to Chaim Bloom Boston was only SIX wins shy of a World Series title... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 1:28 PM, CoastalWx said: SSTs are furnacing. Still 48-49 in BOS harbor. Expand yeah just looked. pretty uniform 48-50 in cape cod Bay/Gulf of Maine. NE/ENE winds not our friend yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 2:05 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: look on the bright side according to Chaim Bloom Boston was only SIX wins shy of a World Series title... Expand They were.....what am I missing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Good I hope we keep above-average SST's through the winter and start racking up 80's in March so the water's are nice and toasty for the early part of severe season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 2:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: They were.....what am I missing? Expand I am trying to get you to look on the bright side. Boston may not be good at reporting the weather BUT hey we can all celebrate that Boston only needed SIX more wins to win a WS title... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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