MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Uncle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 4:49 AM, ORH_wxman said: Oh Canada…nice little Xmas Eve burst and then Xmas Day again on the GGEM…not as prolific as the ICON but it’s several inches for a good chunk of SNE. Expand GEM and ICON....@MJO812 unholy alliance lol 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Very nice gfs run starting from Dec 26. Yes the storms get shredded but there is plenty of cold air around. NAO doing work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 4:59 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEM and ICON....@MJO812 alliance lol Expand Cmc got a big upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 4:59 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEM and ICON....@MJO812 alliance lol Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Euro gets parts of NH pretty good Wednesday now.. its a long shot but could see some flakes here but nothing more I dont think.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Euro is further south and weaker with the Christmas wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Euro doesn't bundle all the energy. A few waves trail the Christmas wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 It may be light but the euro is days and days of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 6:25 AM, weathafella said: It may be light but the euro is days and days of snow. Expand 2 waves which caused a southern trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 6:32 AM, MJO812 said: 2 waves which caused a southern trend Expand Its the near term first system that is a rain event for most in SNE that we can substantially thank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Good summary of the situation by BOX. This is a very fickle situation with multiple shortwaves to resolve over the next 96 or so hours. The first SW isn't even onshore of the West Coast yet. What complicates things even more for southern areas is the marginal airmass. Right now i wouldn't forecast anything beyond R/S showers for X-Mas Eve and Day. The 00Z Icon solution might as well be a 384 hour fantasy storm on a GFS OP run, but it's always nice to shovel digital snow. The first in a series of disturbances then moves through overnight into Christmas Eve, this one quite weak and unimpactful. A low pressure moving from the Great Lakes will likely bring warm frontal precipitation in the form of light snow showers or flurries lingering into Friday morning. Given the lack of moisture, not expecting much more than novelty flakes, perhaps a dusting by Friday morning. This isn`t set in stone though and will come into more focus over the next 24 hours as we get into the hi-res guidance (we`re just within the range of the NAM which presently wants to keep the system too far north to give us much of anything). Stay tuned to see if it might be a picturesque Christmas Eve morning. Turning our attention next to the weekend/Christmas holiday, there unsurprisingly remains even more uncertainty, as this will depend somewhat on the behavior of the system ahead of it. At this point what we can be sure of is that a shortwave will drop down from the western Great Lakes around Christmas bringing unsettled weather with it which may fall as rain, snow, or a wintry mix depending on the eventual track of the low. Too soon to stray from ensemble guidance which, as is often the case, shows the best probability of >1 inch of snow over the higher terrain of northwestern Massachusetts. Either way, this won`t be a blockbuster storm, with odds of snowfall exceeding 3 inches essentially nil. Some interesting climo for Christmas Day at BDL. In the past 30 years there have only been two days with an inch or more snowfall. Those days were in 2002 3.8" and 2017 with 3.3". There's a 58% chance of a defined "white Christmas" i.e. 1" or greater on the ground at 7AM. But only a 5% of a chance of 1" or more snow on that day. The record being 1974 with 4.0". Percentages of days with 1" or more snow depth at 7AM in Southern New England. KBDL 58% KORH 52% KDXR 46% (sparse data not official from airport) KPVD 42% KHVN 41% (sparse data not official from airport) KGON 26% (sparse data not official from airport) KBOS 24% KBDR 20% KISP 19% KEWR 18% KNYC 15% 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 9:50 AM, The 4 Seasons said: Good summary of the situation by BOX. This is a very fickle situation with multiple shortwaves to resolve over the next 96 or so hours. The first SW isn't even onshore of the West Coast yet. What complicates things even more for southern areas is the marginal airmass. Right now i wouldn't forecast anything beyond R/S showers for X-Mas Eve and Day. The 00Z Icon solution might as well be a 384 hour fantasy storm on a GFS OP run, but it's always nice to shovel digital snow. The first in a series of disturbances then moves through overnight into Christmas Eve, this one quite weak and unimpactful. A low pressure moving from the Great Lakes will likely bring warm frontal precipitation in the form of light snow showers or flurries lingering into Friday morning. Given the lack of moisture, not expecting much more than novelty flakes, perhaps a dusting by Friday morning. This isn`t set in stone though and will come into more focus over the next 24 hours as we get into the hi-res guidance (we`re just within the range of the NAM which presently wants to keep the system too far north to give us much of anything). Stay tuned to see if it might be a picturesque Christmas Eve morning. Turning our attention next to the weekend/Christmas holiday, there unsurprisingly remains even more uncertainty, as this will depend somewhat on the behavior of the system ahead of it. At this point what we can be sure of is that a shortwave will drop down from the western Great Lakes around Christmas bringing unsettled weather with it which may fall as rain, snow, or a wintry mix depending on the eventual track of the low. Too soon to stray from ensemble guidance which, as is often the case, shows the best probability of >1 inch of snow over the higher terrain of northwestern Massachusetts. Either way, this won`t be a blockbuster storm, with odds of snowfall exceeding 3 inches essentially nil. Some interesting climo for Christmas Day at BDL. In the past 30 years there have only been two days with an inch or more snowfall. Those days were in 2002 3.8" and 2017 with 3.3". There's a 58% chance of a defined "white Christmas" i.e. 1" or greater on the ground at 7AM. But only a 5% of a chance of 1" or more snow on that day. The record being 1974 with 4.0". Percentages of days with 1" or more snow depth at 7AM in Southern New England. KBDL 58% KORH 52% KDXR 46% (sparse data not official from airport) KPVD 42% KHVN 41% (sparse data not official from airport) KGON 26% (sparse data not official from airport) KBOS 24% KBDR 20% KISP 19% KEWR 18% KNYC 15% Expand how does BDL have a better chance then ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Only 3 more days for it to fall apart 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Hey could be worse back in 2011 today we had a severe Tstorm line cross the state with a brief spin up seen on radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 10:20 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Only 3 more days for it to fall apart Expand Ice for you tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 10:05 AM, ineedsnow said: how does BDL have a better chance then ORH? Expand Yeah i noticed that too, those are just raw percentages from records. The period of record is different between the stations and missing data from years, there's a lot of missing data from ORH including 2002. The reality is probably a 10-15% difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 10:40 AM, Ginx snewx said: Ice for you tomorrow? Expand I don’t think precip gets this far inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 10:40 AM, The 4 Seasons said: Yeah i noticed that too, those are just raw percentages from records. The period of record is different between the stations and missing data from years, there's a lot of missing data from ORH including 2002. The reality is probably a 10-15% difference. Expand Because ORH has so much missing data. Don't trust those numbers plus airports don't do depth anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 9:50 AM, The 4 Seasons said: Good summary of the situation by BOX. This is a very fickle situation with multiple shortwaves to resolve over the next 96 or so hours. The first SW isn't even onshore of the West Coast yet. What complicates things even more for southern areas is the marginal airmass. Right now i wouldn't forecast anything beyond R/S showers for X-Mas Eve and Day. The 00Z Icon solution might as well be a 384 hour fantasy storm on a GFS OP run, but it's always nice to shovel digital snow. The first in a series of disturbances then moves through overnight into Christmas Eve, this one quite weak and unimpactful. A low pressure moving from the Great Lakes will likely bring warm frontal precipitation in the form of light snow showers or flurries lingering into Friday morning. Given the lack of moisture, not expecting much more than novelty flakes, perhaps a dusting by Friday morning. This isn`t set in stone though and will come into more focus over the next 24 hours as we get into the hi-res guidance (we`re just within the range of the NAM which presently wants to keep the system too far north to give us much of anything). Stay tuned to see if it might be a picturesque Christmas Eve morning. Turning our attention next to the weekend/Christmas holiday, there unsurprisingly remains even more uncertainty, as this will depend somewhat on the behavior of the system ahead of it. At this point what we can be sure of is that a shortwave will drop down from the western Great Lakes around Christmas bringing unsettled weather with it which may fall as rain, snow, or a wintry mix depending on the eventual track of the low. Too soon to stray from ensemble guidance which, as is often the case, shows the best probability of >1 inch of snow over the higher terrain of northwestern Massachusetts. Either way, this won`t be a blockbuster storm, with odds of snowfall exceeding 3 inches essentially nil. Some interesting climo for Christmas Day at BDL. In the past 30 years there have only been two days with an inch or more snowfall. Those days were in 2002 3.8" and 2017 with 3.3". There's a 58% chance of a defined "white Christmas" i.e. 1" or greater on the ground at 7AM. But only a 5% of a chance of 1" or more snow on that day. The record being 1974 with 4.0". Percentages of days with 1" or more snow depth at 7AM in Southern New England. KBDL 58% KORH 52% KDXR 46% (sparse data not official from airport) KPVD 42% KHVN 41% (sparse data not official from airport) KGON 26% (sparse data not official from airport) KBOS 24% KBDR 20% KISP 19% KEWR 18% KNYC 15% Expand BDL definitely had one in 1995. There must be other years too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Lol 6z mini nuke right after Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 10:44 AM, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t think precip gets this far inland Expand Oh it will even if a tenth, that can cause havoc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 10:48 AM, CoastalWx said: BDL definitely had one in 1995. There must be other years too. Expand BDL had a christmas day storm in 95? i was too young to remember that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 10:51 AM, The 4 Seasons said: BDL had a christmas day storm in 95? i was too young to remember that one Expand I meant white Christmas with snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 10:48 AM, Ginx snewx said: Oh it will even if a tenth, that can cause havoc Expand some GEFS members have over a half inch of qpf something to watch I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 11:09 AM, ineedsnow said: some GEFS members have over a half inch of qpf something to watch I guess Expand Selling . This will all trend east today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Quite a few op runs are getting 0.30-0.40” back this way tomorrow morning. GFS soundings are borderline around H85-H9, but my hunch is mostly snow with a little mangled, refrozen flakes or sleet pellets mixed in. We’ll see what 12z brings…it’s an interesting forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 10:47 AM, Ginx snewx said: Because ORH has so much missing data. Don't trust those numbers plus airports don't do depth anymore Expand Yeah ORH hasn’t reported snow depth since the 1994-1995 winter. By my records, ORH has had a white Xmas in the following years post-1950: 1951, 1952, 1954, 1956, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1985, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2019 So that’s 42 out of 70 or 60%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 10:48 AM, CoastalWx said: Lol 6z mini nuke right after Christmas. Expand Guidance is all over the place with this weekend. Though for Xmas day itself we’ve seen some narrowing. Even euro gets some measurable snow into SNE now for Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 6z Euro has about a half inch of qpf here just needs to be a touch colder and we ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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