40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It also didn't quite phase or have the storm as intense on the 22 which is sort of a key thing too. But, I am sort of encouraged to see the other guidance show some holiday cheer and I'm waiting to see what the EPS does I'm just exhausted by it all and don't want to look at guidance until after xmas....like 11 SWs all with a very small chance of producing much of any snow for SNE for various reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro can eat it. I haven't been impressed at all. GFS owned its azz on Saturday up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have no doubt the season is going to get going, but I am so exhausted by the early portion of this winter. It's always so easy to get impatient early on (maybe moreso this year given the climo of Nina regimes) but (outside of last winter) how often have we really gotten slammed early in the season? It certainly can happen but like mid-January into March is when we really seem to roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm just exhausted by it all and don't want to look at guidance until after xmas....like 11 SWs all with a very small chance of producing much of any snow for SNE for various reasons. Well I think we said anything before Christmas is gravy though and for good reason. At this point, 1-2" would be nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro can eat it. I haven't been impressed at all. Check out the difference in the Xmas Eve shortwave on Euro vs GFS....this is only an 84 hour prog. Euro on top and GFS below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: It's always so easy to get impatient early on (maybe moreso this year given the climo of Nina regimes) but (outside of last winter) how often have we really gotten slammed early in the season? It certainly can happen but like mid-January into March is when we really seem to roll. Who said anything about slammed? A single, solitary plowable event would have sufficed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Check out the difference in the Xmas Eve shortwave on Euro vs GFS....this is only an 84 hour prog. Euro on top and GFS below Wow, that's a sizeable difference. Lets go 'Murica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 is it still true that the GFS is better than the Euro with NS lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Euro has been off its game too, So will have to wait a couple more cycles. Euro was the one model who gave you any chance for snow the 22nd first though. See if it kowtows to the GFS for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm just exhausted by it all and don't want to look at guidance until after xmas....like 11 SWs all with a very small chance of producing much of any snow for SNE for various reasons. I think once we sort of spread the cold more east and south from Canada....fire up the baroclinic zone in the south and southeast...that's when we will have better chances. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: GFS owned its azz on Saturday up here. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm just exhausted by it all and don't want to look at guidance until after xmas....like 11 SWs all with a very small chance of producing much of any snow for SNE for various reasons. It feels like this has been a recurring theme for the last few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Who said anything about slammed? A single, solitary plowable event would have sufficed. 2015-2016 was the last winter where I didn't get at least an advisory level snowfall prior to New Years...you'd have to go back to 2006-2007 for the next one. So it obviously happens, but it's fairly rare. Especially inland. Right on the coast it's a bit more common. Both of those years I mentioned were El Ninos too. You'd have to go back to 1999-2000 to find one in a neutral or La Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro was the one model who gave you any chance for snow the 22nd first though. See if it kowtows to the GFS for Christmas I wasnt talking about the 22nd, I was referring to 12/18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 December 2018 was pretty bad here. I don't I had more than a couple of inches IIRC if that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: December 2018 was pretty bad here. I don't I had more than a couple of inches IIRC if that? I had 0.1" in Dec 2018, but we had two events in November 2018 including a warning criteria event (that gave us a white T-day) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I had 0.1" in Dec 2018, but we had two events in November 2018 including a warning criteria event (that gave us a white T-day) Hingham had 0.4". I'll look at mine, but likely similar. Yeah that event in November was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 EPS a little south for Christmas too. Sort of similar trends from the op compared to 00z.That's probably wintry at least near NH border and/or inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 So did the Euro show any trend re the 22nd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: So did the Euro show any trend re the 22nd? As compared to 00z, it was a little more west, but not like the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: So did the Euro show any trend re the 22nd? West some, But euro won't jump, It was a couple tics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS a little south for Christmas too. Sort of similar trends from the op compared to 00z.That's probably wintry at least near NH border and/or inland. Yeah tickled south some...even the mean snow algorithm has N ORH county into the 2" range now. Not that I put much stock into snow algorithms, but having that increase a bit shows the colder solutions becoming a little more numerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Hazey said: Nope. No Phase = No Bueno. Otherwise it's a southern low with no cold air to work with. It's rain with some catpaws at the beginning and maybe at the end. I'd rather punt it and save the snow on the ground for Christmas. No cold air?. You can clearly see the injection of cold air in Central New Brunswick like I said it wouldn't take much of a shift in the storm track to change this from being rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 One thing that is pretty noteworthy moving forward is how much the models pretty much turnover the Arctic and the stratosphere. Models really destroy the SPV over the next few weeks and multiple weak PV lobes just get sprayed everywhere. Also very interesting to see how the pattern actually looks to become more favorable as the NAO/PNA signals sort of weaken a bit. I think the biggest change though is models eliminate ridging across the Atlantic...I think that's been killing us b/c even with -NAO there have been weaknesses in the height field over eastern Canada and this ATL ridging feeds into the ridging over the Arctic domain and enhances the ridging and expands West. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Hopefully this works. This is fun to watch. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/9fafb126-8f56-451f-a6f4-35fd7f02271e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 This is sorta interesting... look what's packing into the almost cookie cutter same region as that record heat last year - those are minus 30C contours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Hopefully this works. This is fun to watch. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/9fafb126-8f56-451f-a6f4-35fd7f02271e For TT gifs you need to save and upload to a gif hosting site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx37 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Where do most of you view the EPS? Do you prefer different sites on PC vs. phone? I'm willing to pay for next few months but not sure what's best. TYIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: For TT gifs you need to save and upload to a gif hosting site. ughhhh thanks. damn it more work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Holy smokes... Did you see that big Blizzard for after Christmas on all the models?? NEITHER DID I LOLOLOLOL ( Sorry, couldnt help myself and its a slow week at the office hahaha ) 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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