MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Christmas clipper Nao doing its work ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 It just shreds as it tries to move NE on the 12z GFS for Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1-2" on Xmas eve if GFS is right...hopefully that comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 4:04 PM, dryslot said: For it to stay on the models the next couple cycles, You're probably in one of the better spots as long as it tracks where the GFS has it. Expand Phin might be near warning snows on that… might sneak into it on that prog. Tamarack and Kuligan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 The low transfers from the lakes to the mid Atlantic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 4:14 PM, ORH_wxman said: 1-2" on Xmas eve if GFS is right...hopefully that comes through. Expand Yeah decent WAA push. That works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I love how that system just evaporated on Christmas… good grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 4:15 PM, powderfreak said: Phin might be near warning snows on that… might sneak into it on that prog. Tamarack and Kuligan. Expand Yes for sure they would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 4:14 PM, ORH_wxman said: 1-2" on Xmas eve if GFS is right...hopefully that comes through. Expand Stays cold enough Xmas Day to keep it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 If Wednesday phased sooner would it be a colder solution? I know it’s too late for that… just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 4:16 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I love how that system just evaporated on Christmas… good grief Expand If you can get 1-2" on the 24th and have it cool and dry on Christmas, that's a win. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 4:16 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I love how that system just evaporated on Christmas… good grief Expand Blocking giveth, Blocking taketh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 4:16 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Stays cold enough Xmas Day to keep it? Expand High 35-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 4:16 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Stays cold enough Xmas Day to keep it? Expand No big warmth. Some mid-upper 30s for a few hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 4:16 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Stays cold enough Xmas Day to keep it? Expand Yeah probably...depends on the low track but on the GFS it would. Prob highs in the low to mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Seems awfully dry aloft Christmas Eve ahead of the system. Would probably want it to directly track over one of the Lakes to help retain a bit of moisture. Probably some moistening up occurs towards coastal areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 4:17 PM, CoastalWx said: If you can get 1-2" on the 24th and have it cool and dry on Christmas, that's a win. Expand Yeah… the 1-2” on the 24th… looked tenuous at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 4:26 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah… the 1-2” on the 24th… looked tenuous at best Expand Tenuous, but in the game. Better than prior years lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I've been feeling that 22nd system for a couple of days now...was just waiting to see some model truth of it coming west with the southern stream system. It just has that feel of something that "wants" to phase sooner. You can see the surface isobars kinking back toward the northern stream almost south of NYC. It almost seems like the models have an event horizon with these things...get 2 shortwaves that are strong enough, close enough, and then they develop a sooner attraction. We'll see. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Cmc is also further south with the Christmas storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 3:54 PM, dryslot said: They Jack, 12" plus for CAR, I'm on the fence here but GFS drops 4" after a zr start. Expand Nice! That would solidify my trip planned for the 26th if that played out! Thank you for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 3:42 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Heh... 'cept, I don't really feel it's me doing the twisting? I feel more like an investigative reporter, ...disseminating ironies just comes from honest observation. The models are - figuratively of course ... - going out of their way to find a tribe in east Africa and then taking their sandwiches - ..ah, we'd be the tribe in that metaphor. Expand Hey, I just spent 3 weeks with a tribe from east Africa, and the sandwiches tasted a hell of a lot better than the early portion of this winter. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 4:30 PM, dendrite said: I've been feeling that 22nd system for a couple of days now...was just waiting to see some model truth of it coming west with the southern stream system. It just has that feel of something that "wants" to phase sooner. You can see the surface isobars kinking back toward the northern stream almost south of NYC. It almost seems like the models have an event horizon with these things...get 2 shortwaves that are strong enough, close enough, and then they develop a sooner attraction. We'll see. Expand I have been looking at the Ensembles on this one the last few days too, You can see the kinks back west at the surface with a few members moving in that direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 4:00 PM, weatherwiz said: This system actually has a pretty well defined inverted trough feature. Not just defined at the sfc either but pretty stout well through the llvls. Also looks like there may be multiple llvl convergence zones at play here. northern tip of Maine where nobody lives may do well. Expand Hey..that’s where I sled lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 4:30 PM, dendrite said: I've been feeling that 22nd system for a couple of days now...was just waiting to see some model truth of it coming west with the southern stream system. It just has that feel of something that "wants" to phase sooner. You can see the surface isobars kinking back toward the northern stream almost south of NYC. It almost seems like the models have an event horizon with these things...get 2 shortwaves that are strong enough, close enough, and then they develop a sooner attraction. We'll see. Expand Congrats and enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I'm curious what the euro is showing. That was the warmest and most North. Has that settled south of it with the latest run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 4:39 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Congrats and enjoy Expand Will enjoy my eventual cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 4:01 PM, TugHillMatt said: I assume the fast Pacific flow is involved with this rapid movement and inability to slow down and fully develop? Expand Pacific flow ... or which ever, yup - I just prefer to refer to it overall as a 'gradient rich' environment. By gradient, we mean the height contours on the weather map. When you see more of them, the ambient wind velocity - to wit, waves in the atmosphere move embedded in that field - increases in direct proportion. This is a circumstance - as an aside - that has been a repeating theme in winters over our continent, with increasing frequency observed since the early 2000's. This has happened regardless of ENSO this, or PDO that, or polar index multi-decadal indicators. Prooooobably related to the 'hocky-stick,' non-linear climate change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 4:39 PM, WinterWolf said: Hey..that’s where I sled lol. Expand You and about 25,000 others from out of state......... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Shades of last winter will all these systems getting chewed up. Better than cutter city but not very interesting as depicted right now. Still lots of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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