WinterWolf Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, ineedsnow said: if it were just a tad colder.. thats close Tick tick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: One would think that a low in that place would pull some cold air down from Canada, but it looks like the cold is closed off. Junk airmass. I can understand the frustration for you eastern New Englanders if that happens. Actually ... that's sort of the idealized model you have in mind there. It's not 'theoretically' wrong to outline a theme that way, but nuances relative to circumstance - long words for what this coastal is actually doing ... - is what fills the pages with the real story in each case. In this one, you have a low that moves from a zygote position E of GA to western NS in 24 hours ...that's ~ 85 mph of cyclone translation speed. That is unusually fast. The wind on the west side of this thing - even in a fuller strike - might actually not even be all that impressive due to that vector addition stuff ( think coastal accelerating hurricane, west side lower wind ..etc.). Simple words: not enough time to "grab" air in that sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: How bout the county…? How’s it look for them? They Jack, 12" plus for CAR, I'm on the fence here but GFS drops 4" after a zr start. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 at hr 54 GFS has 33 here 6z was 39 think we could atleast mix a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, ineedsnow said: at hr 54 GFS has 33 here 6z was 39 think we could atleast mix a bit Its not the surface temps that's the issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Foot hills back towards Brian is going to get croaked this run. probably not enough further back, but this can still develop a bit I'd think. If the trend to an earlier phase continues for another run or 2 then maybe it is cold enough for heavy wet snow in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, ineedsnow said: at hr 54 GFS has 33 here 6z was 39 think we could atleast mix a bit The problem is that it gets warm at like 925-850 ahead of it thanks to the primary well to the NW. It is close for you. Maybe nrn Berks and Monads have a shot too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 ughhh this could be so sexy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 just over a half inch of qpf here close to a inch in eastern CT and just west of Boston hmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: probably not enough further back, but this can still develop a bit I'd think. If the trend to an earlier phase continues for another run or 2 then maybe it is cold enough for heavy wet snow in the interior. Yes, If we could get this going just a tad sooner, Its still borderline here so it would not take much, But that is a potent s/w moving up the coast on the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Tick tick We don’t need rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Christmas Eve festive on GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 This system actually has a pretty well defined inverted trough feature. Not just defined at the sfc either but pretty stout well through the llvls. Also looks like there may be multiple llvl convergence zones at play here. northern tip of Maine where nobody lives may do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Still mid-20s at 11am...cold out there today. Too bad it's Monday and not Wednesday when we could use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Actually ... that's sort of the idealized model you have in mind there. It's not 'theoretically' wrong to outline a theme that way, but nuances relative to circumstance - long words for what this coastal is actually doing ... - is what fills the pages with the real story in each case. In this one, you have a low that moves from a zygote position E of GA to western NS in 24 hours ...that's ~ 85 mph of cyclone translation speed. That is unusually fast. The wind on the west side of this thing - even in a fuller strike - might actually not even be all that impressive due to that vector addition stuff ( think coastal accelerating hurricane, west side lower wind ..etc.). Simple words: not enough time to "grab" air in that sense. I assume the fast Pacific flow is involved with this rapid movement and inability to slow down and fully develop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Foot hills back towards Brian is going to get croaked this run. That’s a good look for my location, what do we need to lock that in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Snowflakes for many on Christmss Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Snowflakes for many on Christmss Eve meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: That’s a good look for my location, what do we need to lock that in? For it to stay on the models the next couple cycles, You're probably in one of the better spots as long as it tracks where the GFS has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Christmas eve is ground pork. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: For it to stay on the models the next couple cycles, Your'e probably in one of the better spots as long as it tracks where the GFS has it. Lol I was hoping for some words of wisdom but point taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Christmas day looks like it might be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Christmas day looks like it might be good Meh, It goes thru the grinder for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Looks like it will be wet, not white, on the 25th Edit... looks like little precip of any type after the flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Meh, It goes thru the grinder for you guys. ya just saw that ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Looks like it will be wet, not white, on the 25th On the GFS? Verbatim dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Gives CT some snow and then moves east at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 The air is drier than Anthony's Christmas cookies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, NW_of_GYX said: Lol I was hoping for some words of wisdom but point taken. Ha, Well, Its just the last couple runs it has shifted pretty far to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: On the GFS? Verbatim dry. Yeah... I was extrapolating before it updated. Poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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