40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: All kidding aside, I hope we’re not already seeing cracks in the good pattern. Just watch ensembles at that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: That was a longitude event. I lived a few blocks from wxniss and we met for a walk while it was pounding. After about 45 minutes it was pouring rain but the event got rescued as we went back to snow 2 hours later. I think my current location got around 8 inches. I would imagine the East coast of SNE has much more in the way of erratic ptype line with some storms than the south coast. That’s my guess. But I really haven’t spent much time in Massachusetts, cape, Boston or whatever. Not that I don’t like that, it’s just that my family and I always end up in CT or RI. Providence is sort of a transition area between south coast effect and east coast effect. i am much more familiar with the south coast. In any case, storms tend to start as snow then turn to rain. The flip back to snow isn’t that frequent in my memory. I know of areas that are the opposite where it always starts as rain and turns to snow… mostly because it’s a cold front thing. No matter where I live, I’ve had issues with cold front rain to snow transitions always taking longer than advertised especially back in the day. Just when it finally changes over it is coming to an end and it’s too late for accumulation. This effect is why leeside foothills out west can receive multiples of snow compared to the east side of the valley just a few miles to the east. And more than once I have purposely relocated myself to some cabin in those hills just to get the best of that. i can’t afford to do that anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 We’ll … the probabilistic upshot of that is that D10 GFS deterministic solutions are usually determined NOT to successfully take place. I posted that for fun btw - 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just watch ensembles at that range 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: We’ll … the probabilistic upshot of that is that D10 GFS deterministic solutions are usually determined NOT to successfully take place. I posted that for fun btw - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I notice Accuweather just posted their blurb about the holiday weekend. They’re taking a relatively warm assumption and it looks uncannily just like yesterday was for us. Off with their heads jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 18 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: I notice Accuweather just posted their blurb about the holiday weekend. They’re taking a relatively warm assumption and it looks uncannily just like yesterday was for us. Off with their heads jk maybe forkyfork works for them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 34 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: I would imagine the East coast of SNE has much more in the way of erratic ptype line with some storms than the south coast. That’s my guess. But I really haven’t spent much time in Massachusetts, cape, Boston or whatever. Not that I don’t like that, it’s just that my family and I always end up in CT or RI. Providence is sort of a transition area between south coast effect and east coast effect. i am much more familiar with the south coast. In any case, storms tend to start as snow then turn to rain. The flip back to snow isn’t that frequent in my memory. I know of areas that are the opposite where it always starts as rain and turns to snow… mostly because it’s a cold front thing. No matter where I live, I’ve had issues with cold front rain to snow transitions always taking longer than advertised especially back in the day. Just when it finally changes over it is coming to an end and it’s too late for accumulation. This effect is why leeside foothills out west can receive multiples of snow compared to the east side of the valley just a few miles to the east. And more than once I have purposely relocated myself to some cabin in those hills just to get the best of that. i can’t afford to do that anymore. Every event is nuanced here due to the effects of being right next to the Atlantic and a stones throw away from the Gulf Stream. There are several demarcation lines for events depending on how cold the air mass is and the track of the storm. We probably only have a couple events a year, if we’re lucky, that mixed precipitation isn’t an issue somewhere in SNE. Sometimes it’s I-95, sometimes it’s the Mass Pike, sometimes it’s I-495. The south coast definitely has more issues with P-type than the east coast. In fact the east coast (or north shore and south shore) often picks up extra snow in Nor’Easters where ocean enhancement kicks in as the storms pull east. That never really happens at the south coast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You fall for his traps literally every single time I just worry for the safety of him and his wife. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 hour ago, IowaStorm05 said: I notice Accuweather just posted their blurb about the holiday weekend. They’re taking a relatively warm assumption and it looks uncannily just like yesterday was for us. Off with their heads jk Mike Wankum did too on Channel 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 I suspect they’re just framing their outlooks with persistence in mind. Until something breaks toward a verification that at last validates all theses -so far- empty indications … can’t really blame them if that’s the case 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Nice and chilly outside. Down to 26.9/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Heh ICON’s 18z clipped eastern zones with cat paws from that old 22nd thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 18z euro was also nice for Maine on the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 18z euro was also nice for Maine on the 22nd. Assimilated data seems to do this … then the mains roll and it backs off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 As ALWAYS, this board talks in Riddles and Expects people to know what in Jesus you are saying…. “Come north to WRJ area mile marker 70.” What in TARNATION is WRJ???? And how would I know if it’s Snowing where the little Marker 70 is? And do you mean Mille Marker 70? Moose Marker 70? Is it a big green state sign? Is it a little yellow one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, TheSnowman said: As ALWAYS, this board talks in Riddles and Expects people to know what in Jesus you are saying…. “Come north to WRJ area mile marker 70.” What in TARNATION is WRJ???? And how would I know if it’s Snowing where the little Marker 70 is? And do you mean Mille Marker 70? Moose Marker 70? Is it a big green state sign? Is it a little yellow one? Look at a map? White River Jct. If you looked at a map, you would have seen I-91 and I-89 intersect there and you may have them been able to deduce what may have been a logical route, up 91 to 89, down to 93 and back to Boston, where you said you needed to end up. Along the way, you might have seen some small, green signs along the side of the road with a series of numbers on them. The one with a 70 would be mile marker 70. I know it’s complicated but I’m sure you can figure it out. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Snow to rain on the icon for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 This gfs run is colder overall. The trough isn't digging as deep as it did on the 18z run out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 39 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Snow to rain on the icon for Christmas Looks really good...too bad the model blows lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 18z vs 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Christmas trended colder for SNE on cmc 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Another model which doesn't have a clue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Why am I getting weenies for posting what the runs show ? Bunch of losers. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why am I getting weenies for posting what the runs show ? Bunch of losers. Why are you triggered? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, mreaves said: Why are you triggered? So that's you in sesh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Nice cold long walk with temperature of 20 tonight. I see BOS came in with 23 at midnight with room to drop. Feel of winter. Normal for a few weeks from now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why am I getting weenies for posting what the runs show ? Bunch of losers. Maybe the guys weenieing you can point out what you said that isn't true? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Gfs in deep clown range bringing in the motherlode into the upper Midwest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 35 minutes ago, mreaves said: Why are you triggered? So he's "triggered" when people post random warm maps of one snapshot in time, and triggered when he asks why he is being weenied when also simply posting maps....interesting lol Gotta love how posting long range snowstorms draws ridicule, but posting extended lead warm charts is "factual". This place is unbearable when it's not snowing. 11 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 6z models are so close but running out of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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