December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Let’s hope for some cooler tics 

I think all of us in SNE are going to need them because it’s prob coming back north a little once we get inside of 48-60h or so. My gut still says mostly a miss for the majority of SNE (maybe not up by Ray)...lots of sleet and maybe some ZR too but not much snow and mostly rain near the coast. 

But we’ll see. It’s already trended colder than I ever thought it would so maybe it’s got another tick or two left. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Really tight gradient there on rgem. Like, Foxborough def gets a decent hit of snow...tougher call for you. Right on the line. 

Icestorm conditions?

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One of my fav December analogs going in.

Hope the NAO is a little more west based this year. Don't think there was a lot is snow in SNE 70/71 but could be wrong.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you would want 3"+ to ensure a white xmas.

3” of sleet-infused pack would prob do it. Otherwise we’ll have to hope something in the 12/23-25 range works out....which it might. Pattern is ripe for it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think all of us in SNE are going to need them because it’s prob coming back north a little once we get inside of 48-60h or so. My gut still says mostly a miss for the majority of SNE (maybe not up by Ray)...lots of sleet and maybe some ZR too but not much snow and mostly rain near the coast. 

But we’ll see. It’s already trended colder than I ever thought it would so maybe it’s got another tick or two left. 

I am nervous I am a bit too far south on the first map.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hope the NAO is a little more west based this year. Don't think there was a lot is snow in SNE 70/71 but could be wrong.

Northern half of SNE did well.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you would want 3"+ to ensure a white xmas.

Why wouldn’t 1-3 last? It stays in the 30’s all next elevated interior 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Why wouldn’t 1-3 last? It stays in the 30’s all next elevated interior 

Well, easier for you...he lives in Taunton. But 1" even for you could sublimate 

[CoastalWx]

It also may get milder next week as flow gets a little zonal. So that could melt a bit. It's not really cold.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, easier for you...he lives in Taunton. But 1" even for you could sublimate 

I’m thinking 1-2” here tops ahead of zr . It may be mostly sleet and zr and never sniff freezing . You’ll get more snow for sure 

[mahk_webstah]

36 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Where do i sign? 70-71 was epic.

In that setup does the western trough just keep spitting out energy while the epo  feeds cold and the Atlantic doesn’t allow cutting without redevelopment?  Basically a bunch of 3-6, 4-8?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you would want 3"+ to ensure a white xmas.

I’d agree with that…. Like will said… add a little sleet for good measure 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d agree with that…. Like will said… add a little sleet for good measure 

If I were you, I’d prepare to meet Kali. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

If I were you, I’d prepare to meet Kali. 

We know where you stand …. You’ll sneak in last minute with some excitement if this holds promise on Friday 

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

In that setup does the western trough just keep spitting out energy while the epo  feeds cold and the Atlantic doesn’t allow cutting without redevelopment?  Basically a bunch of 3-6, 4-8?

There was some big coastal events that winter that helped in some big totals up here, I'm quite sure there were several lt/mod  events too, But i was more focused on girls back then then weather............

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We know where you stand …. You’ll sneak in last minute with some excitement if this holds promise on Friday 

Yeah I’m not expecting much but I wouldn’t rule out 1-3. That’s where I stand 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am nervous I am a bit too far south on the first map.

We'll be fine.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We know where you stand …. You’ll sneak in last minute with some excitement if this holds promise on Friday 

[ORH_wxman]

18z gfs came in a tick colder than 12z. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We'll be fine.

I think worst case, 3" here.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think worst case, 3" here.

I was thinking the same.  Rt 2 corridor into SNH 3-4" and 4-6" if we can get the juicier initial thump.  I'm fine with some freeing drizzle to finish.

[greenmtnwx]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think all of us in SNE are going to need them because it’s prob coming back north a little once we get inside of 48-60h or so. My gut still says mostly a miss for the majority of SNE (maybe not up by Ray)...lots of sleet and maybe some ZR too but not much snow and mostly rain near the coast. 

But we’ll see. It’s already trended colder than I ever thought it would so maybe it’s got another tick or two left. 

Will, What are your thoughts on the southern Greens for the weekend, Stratton/Mount Snow?

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said:

Will, What are your thoughts on the southern Greens for the weekend, Stratton/Mount Snow?

A good place to be.  I feel like these like to be SVT-Dendy-Dryslot style events for a jackpot zone.  Merely climo-wise.

[DavisStraight]

26 minutes ago, dryslot said:

There was some big coastal events that winter that helped in some big totals up here, I'm quite sure there were several lt/mod  events too, But i was more focused on girls back then then weather............

Nothing better than being with a beautiful lady while its S+ outside, best of both worlds.

[HoarfrostHubb]

16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I was thinking the same.  Rt 2 corridor into SNH 3-4" and 4-6" if we can get the juicier initial thump.  I'm fine with some freeing drizzle to finish.

That’s my take on it as well for now.  Would prefer a drier powder bomb but I’ll take anything.  At least wet mixed stuff sticks around

[weathafella]

This would be be a lot more productive with a non garbage antecedent.

[snowgeek]

18Z NAM torch runs often come true. I’m keeping expectations for much accumulating snow in the Cap District low for now but we’ll definitely watch dem trends. On another note, 70-71 redo in Albany would be welcome and frightening at the same time. Adrenaline might kill me…. but I guess death by snow is the weenie way to go.


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[snowgeek]

Decent sleet and zr here a safer bet for now with that cold drain down the Hudson gutter.


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[snowgeek]

Will, What are your thoughts on the southern Greens for the weekend, Stratton/Mount Snow?

I’ll be at Stratton Sat if it looks like sneaky warm later doesn’t penetrate into S VT.


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[weatherwiz]

What's happening in the heart of the country now is absolutely wild. The videos are epic. I guess some wildfires going too