powderfreak Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Love how it's always north or south on models and never east or west Well SWFE vs coastal storm will be different. Plenty of conversations about east or west depending on the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Well SWFE vs coastal storm will be different. Plenty of conversations about east or west depending on the system. East of the river, south of the pike, in and up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 I’m not entirely convinced this doesn’t weaken a bit as we get closer though… seems to fit the bill for what we’ve seen so far this season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, forkyfork said: This is actually a really good loop....the midlevel center obviously has trended solidly north in the past few runs....but notice how out to the east in the gulf of maine, the 850 temps haven't moved much....which shows the confluence working. The last frame has solid southerly flow at 850 while the first frame was actually out of the north in that area....but yet not a big difference in temps. That's what you want to see for a classic several hour thump. Only limiting factor in the antecedent airmass is pretty crappy....otherwise this would probably be a decent thump down to even near NYC instead of BOS-ORH being near the line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: East of the river, south of the pike, in and up. As someone often on the edge of synoptic systems, I feel like an expert that can speak on plenty of systems where east/west is the discussion . Meanwhile folks in ORH don’t know what worrying about ticks east/west/north/south are like. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Still gotta watch the 12/24-12/25 potential 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Jeez maybe SEA and PDX can have a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Jeez maybe SEA and PDX can have a white Christmas. What a monster ridge near Bering sea.....and then a monster -NAO block on the other side of the pole. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: What a monster ridge near Bering sea.....and then a monster -NAO block on the other side of the pole. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 That's a tasty look at 5h at day 10 on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, Allsnow said: Yep...I was looking even further into the future....but it's already pretty well established before that....even back to around 84-96 hours it's well under way. D10, it's pretty mature and that's a party time look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Pretty amazing they were able to build the MA Turnpike right on the rain/snow line lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep...I was looking even further into the future....but it's already pretty well established before that....even back to around 84-96 hours it's well under way. D10, it's pretty mature and that's a party time look. Real nice to see this stuff move up in time and not just stuck in fantasy land. We probably wait down here for something after xmass but up by sne/nne it’s sooner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 those height anomalies are deceptive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 Someone else start a thread...I have bad karma right now. First Call ready. First plowable snowfall likely across at least the northern half of the region late Saturday into early Sunday likely to result in a white Christmas, especially points north of the Mass Pike. Mess mix points south with perhaps a period of nasty ice in northern CT. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/12/white-christmas-ensured-for-much-of.html Should have update Friday or Saturday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: those height anomalies are deceptive Wouldn’t this be more of pattern for low level cold then 850? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: those height anomalies are deceptive Many further south will have to wait until the good stuff advects in from the plains post-Xmas, but those 850 anomalies are totally fine for snow up in NE as long as you squashing storms south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's funny that NARCAN is a lot more generous at 00z than you'd expect but less generous down there at 12z. That run looked definitively snowier to me down there than those snow maps would suggest. Yea, I like it because it doesn't go weenie, but sometimes it goes aggressive limiting snow due to low levels...often times you need to ignore it near the coastline. i'm not arguing that run wasn't better down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Many further south will have to wait until the good stuff advects in from the plains post-Xmas, but those 850 anomalies are totally fine for snow up in NE as long as you squashing storms south of us. Troll application submitted, reviewed and denied. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: does that thing just off the se coast get pulled into the trough coming down into the lakes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Many further south will have to wait until the good stuff advects in from the plains post-Xmas, but those 850 anomalies are totally fine for snow up in NE as long as you squashing storms south of us. congrats caribou 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 What a bad “fake met” 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 No threads until tomorrow afternoon! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Troll application submitted, reviewed and denied. I mean, it's a valid point....usually that pattern would be colder but we haven't had the initial advection of arctic air south so we're dealing with a more marginal airmass pre-Xmas. But as long as storms are shove south of us, we'd still be snow in that setup. 850 climo by Xmas is about -6C or -7C....so hovering a degree or two above that with storm tracks to our south will work....but if a storm tries to hug or cut west, it could be a bigger issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Extreme cold over Russia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, forkyfork said: those height anomalies are deceptive Those 850 anomalies are deceptive. We live at the surface. 5 day anomaly leading to Christmas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Extreme cold over Russia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: No threads until tomorrow afternoon! Yeah, after going 0-2 in the last 2 threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 24 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Pretty amazing they were able to build the MA Turnpike right on the rain/snow line lol And Route 495 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: does that thing just off the se coast get pulled into the trough coming down into the lakes? The northern stream doesn’t dig enough so it gets pushed out to sea. If the block trends stronger it’s probably something that could happen. The airmass is a bit marginal down here but for the interior it could work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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