ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 12z GFS is coming in colder too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Starting to look pretty likely. I'll be spending the holiday in Wilmington, which should also be okay....I think any further south is dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Gfs looks colder through 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 WTTE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 12z GFS is coming in colder too. Was just gonna post this. That high arcing down over us looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM is like -4C at 925mb along the pike....lol. That would be a scalp-peeling pelletfest here I think. Hoping for a tick colder aloft so it's more snow. I could see pike all snow where DIT is in a battle between ZR/IP and snow; less mix the further north you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Scooter ripping fatties while Kevin is getting scalp-peeler on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 The big question will be how long does the pattern last before the next warm up and when the next warmup does happen, how long will it be? I’m very optimistic based on what I see on the long range guidance. The pattern on the models looks very similar to the types of patterns we get in our snowier La Niña years. March 2018, Jan 2011, ect. We wasted a couple weeks of December in a mild and snowless pattern, but that is not a problem at all. Even 2-4 weeks of this pattern will likely produce at least 1 if not 2 Miller B storms that bring blizzard conditions to eastern Mass. 2018 we got a blizzard early Jan, then an extended thaw, then all hell broke loose in March and we had one severe 2 foot blizzard just days after a nor’easter that gave my area 8 or so inches of snow. That pattern lasted 4 weeks. If this one lasts 4 weeks then we will have a March 2018 pattern in JANUARY. Maybe the storm around Christmas doesn’t pan out, just like the first storm didnt pan out in early March 2018 (was rain because the temps were a bit too warm), but even if it doesn’t what is important is we will have plenty of chances. Everything is lining up for a big winter, weak well coupled La Niña (likely peaks at about -.8 to -9), basin wide but biased east, so the structure of the La Niña is favorable. The MJO is going into phases 7 and 8, and the strong polar vortex that was the driving factor behind our mild first half of December is expected to stop deepening and start weakening. All great signs for not only this window, but windows of opportunity in Feb and March as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 That's definitely colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Where its all snow, Looking like the classic SWFE with 6-10" warning event, 12z GFS shows it nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Colder rain here…. But man…. That isn’t far from some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Scooter ripping fatties while Kevin is getting scalp-peeler on the GFS. I’d prefer all zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 The nam has a warm layer in the upper levels but it is freezing at the surface. I’m starting to think we could be getting an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Colder rain here…. But man…. That isn’t far from some snow You would actually start as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Basically snow-->rain-->end as brief snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: You would actually start as snow. Yup…. It’s trending in the right direction…. We’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 so close here need to nudge this south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 How's it looking for just west of Hartford, Ct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 GEFS coming in colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: How's it looking for just west of Hartford, Ct? Judging by the soundings, it looks pretty icy here in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Wow this is getting pretty interesting. Pretty stout high to the north too so hard to see this tracking farther north. If this does verify I probably wouldn't be going Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Icestorm brewing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Canadian already looks flatter at 54 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Canadian already looks flatter at 54 Significantly so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Significantly so. Yup…. Way flatter and cooler through 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 got to be up at 430 for work tonight these runs are killing me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 We should have a thread for saturday soon since the longer range also has promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 That’s like a 75-100 mile shift…. Snowing right down into northern Bristol county at 84 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Anytime you get these scenarios with cold air drainage from a high pressure to the north there is always the concern for dry air to drain down as well, however, that doesn't appear to be a concern in this scenario. Also note how the ULJ develops moving through Saturday morning across the Northeast...going to be a great deal of upper-level divergence present. Given the lift we should have where it snows its really going to come down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 There's a crazy gradient for this thing to feed off of too....you have like +13C 850 temps down near DC while it's -5C to -10C from northern SNE into NNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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