DavisStraight Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:00 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Long range looks like 2010-2011. Expand I just felt tingly all over my body Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:03 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Trying my best to not LBE. Expand Don't get me wrong.....I'm not saying to expect 60" in a month, but it has that kind of upside if it isn't too transient and/or we get some luck. 2011 we had the NAO hand off to the PNA in order to protract a very favorable two week stretch to a month. You need breaks for that to happen. But this isn't a shock...2010 was a great ENSO analog this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 The EPS at the end of the 00z run started to lift heights in the PNA area as the EPO relaxed a bit. Hopefully that extrapolates to a more +PNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:00 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Long range looks like 2010-2011. Expand Yeah there are similarities though the PNA is more negative and NAO not quite as west-based, but it's definitely a very favorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:03 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Trying my best to not LBE. Expand The blocking in Greenland just sets up shop right through the New Year. The question is, is it believable? Lots of blocking in the North pole region as well, looks great as of now....but we have seen this story before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:05 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't get me wrong.....I'm not saying to expect 60" in a month, but it has that kind of upside if it isn't too transient and/or we get some luck. 2011 we had the NAO hand off to the PNA in order to protract a very favorable two week stretch to a month. You need breaks for that to happen. But this isn't a shock...2010 was a great ENSO analog this season. Expand On 12/15/2021 at 2:06 PM, CoastalWx said: The EPS at the end of the 00z run started to lift heights in the PNA area as the EPO relaxed a bit. Hopefully that extrapolates to a more +PNA. Expand Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:07 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there are similarities though the PNA is more negative and NAO not quite as west-based, but it's definitely a very favorable pattern. Expand Yea....though the latter is trending. I do think we see the PNA more variable in January...or course, I thought that about December, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 On a seasonal level, its a no-brainer that it will be RNA in the means, but the trick is pinning down when the periods of volatility will be. I have missed on that so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:07 PM, Spanks45 said: The blocking in Greenland just sets up shop right through the New Year. The question is, is it believable? Lots of blocking in the North pole region as well, looks great as of now....but we have seen this story before Expand It’s coming. How much we cash in on it though is a different discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Jan 11 was a great month, not as good as the 2015 blitz but we built up a pretty good pack that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:10 PM, DavisStraight said: Jan 11 was a great month, not as good as the 2015 blitz but we built up a pretty good pack that month. Expand It was fabulous here…the pack was incredible….roofs were collapsing everywhere. I never expect that(2011), but I like this look on guidance for sure. Hoping we can cash in on it with some vigor. Doesn’t need to be 2011 or anything, just some good solid action is fine for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:00 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Long range looks like 2010-2011. Expand Sign me up. Started in earnest with Boxing Day. I know that storm triggers some folks but it was a great event here. January was like a mini 2015… pack got pretty substantial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 @WinterWolf@Ginx snewx@weatherwiz Are you guys still planning on coming Saturday? Not trying to be a PIA, but there are a few folks who are on the edge and want to know if enough are coming to make it worth it. I know Garth, Jerry and @ScituateWX (Brian) are in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:19 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Sign me up. Started in earnest with Boxing Day. I know that storm triggers some folks but it was a great event here. January was like a mini 2015… pack got pretty substantial Expand Boxing day was a really good event...it was the perspective that jaded me on it. That Miller B came out of nowhere and I had my heart set on the deformation zone, but never imagined it would trend SO FAR west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:22 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: @WinterWolf@Ginx snewx@weatherwiz Are you guys still planning on coming Saturday? Not trying to be a PIA, but there are a few folks who are on the edge and want to know if enough are coming to make it worth it. I know Garth, Jerry and @ScituateWX (Brian) are in... Expand yeah I'm definitely planning on it. I'm actually probably going to drive to Wellington and take the T in. I am NOT a city driver. Last time when I went to Clarke's I almost died driving in Boston and parked in a garage and it cost $45 Probably plan on staying until around 7 then want to get back for the Pats game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 The analog for 2010-2011 had some real doozy's around here. Wouldnt mind a repeat. As much as I would love snow for xmas, I'd rather have a great run, that means it's starting in January I'll wait and be patient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:35 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Boxing day was a really good event...it was the perspective that jaded me on it. That Miller B came out of nowhere and I had my heart set on the deformation zone, but never imagined it would trend SO FAR west.... Expand I got shafted in that event That storm makes me cringe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:36 PM, Snowcrazed71 said: The analog for 2010-2011 had some real doozy's around here. Wouldnt mind a repeat. As much as I would love snow for xmas, I'd rather have a great run, that means it's starting in January I'll wait and be patient Expand I'll give up a white Christmas for a 2011 January too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:35 PM, weatherwiz said: yeah I'm definitely planning on it. I'm actually probably going to drive to Wellington and take the T in. I am NOT a city driver. Last time when I went to Clarke's I almost died driving in Boston and parked in a garage and it cost $45 Probably plan on staying until around 7 then want to get back for the Pats game. Expand You need to get some lesson from Jay on how to navigate boston streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2010-2011 was nothing special up here, Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:36 PM, weatherwiz said: I got shafted in that event That storm makes me cringe Expand I did too, big totals to my East and to the West, I was in the middle in the screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:35 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Boxing day was a really good event...it was the perspective that jaded me on it. That Miller B came out of nowhere and I had my heart set on the deformation zone, but never imagined it would trend SO FAR west.... Expand It tilted too, so the def zone was almost N-S. Really bizarre event. The only thing that saved ern areas, was the strong low level forcing. Not necessarily a CF...but it was really convergent at 925-850. Dry as a bone above 850 but unstable. So that forcing was able to get some upward motion going in the unstable layer and create a band of heavy precip. Not a common setup. On the other hand, almost everyone even inland gusted to 50kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:42 PM, dryslot said: You need to get some lesson from Jay on how to navigate boston streets. Expand I can barely handle driving in Hartford and I could barely handle driving around in Danbury cities stress me out...worrying about where to turn and if you'll miss it whether you're in the right lane. I prefer the highway On 12/15/2021 at 2:45 PM, DavisStraight said: I did too, big totals to my East and to the West, I was in the middle in the screw zone. Expand sucked on subsidence all night (and 40's) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:44 PM, dryslot said: 2010-2011 was nothing special up here, Pass. Expand Very special here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:44 PM, dryslot said: 2010-2011 was nothing special up here, Pass. Expand How was Jan 11 there? We got the big deform band here. 21” from that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:55 PM, MJO812 said: Very special here Expand If your happy i won't be ha ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:53 PM, weatherwiz said: I can barely handle driving in Hartford and I could barely handle driving around in Danbury cities stress me out...worrying about where to turn and if you'll miss it whether you're in the right lane. I prefer the highway sucked on subsidence all night (and 40's) Expand Do you take 84 to the Pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:55 PM, dendrite said: How was Jan 11 there? We got the big deform band here. 21” from that event. Expand 15.5", It was a good 3 week stretch from 12/27 to 01/21, The book ends were meh, Finished slightly below avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:00 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Long range looks like 2010-2011. Expand Boi-oi-oi-oi-ing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 2:58 PM, DavisStraight said: Do you take 84 to the Pike? Expand I'd be going from Springfield Saturday with my gf so probably (I forget what route it is) something briefly to the Mass Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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