40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 Probably a solid 3" here that run.....been thinking 2-5 SWFE all week....key diff being its inverse in that snow comes at end, which is key for white xmas potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Another tick or two on the Euro and you will have the track, Thinking 60/40 Euro/GFS blend right now, Starting to see where the convergence on track will be, Will start earlier then modeled too, Typical SWFE favored climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 4:23 AM, dryslot said: Another tick or two on the Euro and you will have the track, Thinking 60/40 Euro/GFS blend right now, Starting to see where the convergence on track will be, Will start earlier then modeled too, Typical SWFE favored climo. Expand My area is going to be right near the dividing line for appreciable snows or not.....judging by the past several years, I'll narrowly miss, but this area is due for some beeaks. Been porked for every reason in every direction past few seasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 4:29 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: My area is going to be right near the dividing line for appreciable snows or not.....judging by the past several years, I'll narrowly miss, but this area is due for some beeaks. Been porked for every reason in every direction past few seasons. Expand Yeah, You're on the fence, 10-20 miles could make a big difference for you, I have a little more room here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 4:32 AM, dryslot said: Yeah, You're on the fence, 10-20 miles could make a big difference for you, I have a little more room here. Expand You are a lock...told you, love your spot this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 4:29 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: My area is going to be right near the dividing line for appreciable snows or not.....judging by the past several years, I'll narrowly miss, but this area is due for some beeaks. Been porked for every reason in every direction past few seasons. Expand Some day you will get one like this . Alpine Meadows tonight 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 4:33 AM, Ginx snewx said: Some day you will get one like this . Alpine Meadows tonight Expand My bucket list is to chase in Sierra, LES and cane....part of me wanted to shoot out there for this w the family gone right now, but my time off from work is low after Africa. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Merry Christmas on the gfs That's a nice block 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 4:39 AM, MJO812 said: Merry Christmas on the gfs That's a nice block Expand How big? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 4:33 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: You are a lock...told you, love your spot this season. Expand Yes you did, This next one reminds me of how many went in 2007-08 when we were north of the gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 4:40 AM, dryslot said: Yes you did, This next one reminds me of how many went in 2007-08. Expand I would sign now for that year...I had like 80" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 4:39 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: How big? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2017-ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 Late bloomer just outside BM. Aside from the range....yea, yea...I get it...that is totally fair game. Not skeptical at all....I know it gets better, thereafter, but that block is trending faster to develop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 4:41 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would sign now for that year...I had like 80" here. Expand 128.7" that winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 4:43 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Late bloomer just outside BM. Aside from the range....yea, yea...I get it...that is totally fair game. Not skeptical at all....I know it gets better, thereafter, but that block is trending faster to develop. Expand Good to see the blocking get going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 4:44 AM, MJO812 said: Good to see the blocking get going Expand I explicitly stated in my write up last month that odds of a storm on the holiday itself far exceeded climo chances...holiday week should be a blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 4:46 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I explicitly stated in my write up last month that odds of a storm on the holiday itself far exceeded climo chances...holiday week should be a blast. Expand Gfs has another low about to hit a brick wall in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Uh huh, it’s coming: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 4:50 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Uh huh, it’s coming: Expand Man, I love that song Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 4:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, I love that song Expand Hard to pin point the best song of all time but no other tune brings out the emotions like that one does. It’s euphoric. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 5:03 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Hard to pin point the best song of all time but no other tune brings out the emotions like that one does. It’s euphoric. Expand Great segment on the song. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Cmc also has the Miller B storm but weak. All 3 models have a smiling outcome. Ways out there but blocking is doing its work on these models. The low tries to drive into the block but then heads east and re develops near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 I love blocking. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 CMC cool off for Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 5:07 AM, MJO812 said: Cmc also has the Miller B storm but weak. All 3 models have a smiling outcome. Ways out there but blocking is doing its work on these models. The low tries to drive into the block but then heads east and re develops near the coast. Expand Looks good for New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 4 muthufukkas for BOS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 The Canadian is showing why having blocking is so important, the 20-21st low actually misses out to sea, but due to the severe North Atlantic blocking the low cannot move, it just sits there. That gives the northern stream more time to catch up, phase with the southern low that is way offshore and hook it back in just enough to result in a big storm in new england. It may not evolve exactly that way, but it shows that there is a lot of room for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 0z Euro is nice still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/15/2021 at 6:30 AM, ineedsnow said: 0z Euro is nice still Expand Nice for what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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