December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Deal with it,

Cosgrove

Beware of warmer, calmer forecasts this week and next. I make this remark because many of the numerical models cannot correctly figure what will happen in situations where stronger high-latitude blocking ridges exist, concurrently with an equally impressive subtropical jet stream. The evolution of a Bering Sea and Greenland/Iceland couplet ridging is well underway. Positive height anomalies in those positions favor the formation of cold 500MB vortices in Alberta and below Newfoundland. The USA result is that colder than normal temperatures are probable in all but Texas and the Dixie states. Climatology for this type of event allows for stronger cold frontal passages through the Midwest and the Eastern Seaboard above Interstate 40. With the active southern branch adding energy, there can be phased events off of the Mid-Atlantic shoreline. Much like what the GGEM panels show December 20-22. Not only is there the chance for a rogue snow event then (along and west of the major cities), but warm-ups will be hard to maintain. I suspect that another risk for an important precipitation event may occur between Christmas and New Year's. That cold pool setting up east of Sable Island NS creates a window for redevelopment, which could be especially potent if the subtropical jet stream energy joins in the fray. Be very careful when handling cold air and storm transitions over the next two or three weeks. Note that the heat ridge complex in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida gets suppressed after this week!

Yea, looks like a good period....I expect the signature event for the month to occur the week of xmas/New Year's, and then perhaps an even larger event in early Jan.

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure who spiked a football, but I am under the impression that the ensemble mean is the course of least regret in the medium range. In the last threat, the mean also drifted well se....we do not see that here.

Nobody has spiked a thing as far as i know, But throwing up OP runs and taking that verbatim this far out is really foolish and pointless as well as making assumptions of its going to weak because some of the last ones were, These SWFE's tend to favor some areas over others in most cases, But there are exceptions too, The air mass is another big issue too, Its marginal, That's why i have just monitored the ensembles to see where there heading.

[CoastalWx]

This one has origins in the south, so you have that going for it. However. the flow is very progressive so this won't get too far north either. But that said, there is a garbage airmass to start which favors up north and into maybe nrn Mass. Pike south should not expect much. Maybe a little snow to end, or rain to mix interior like Kevin. That's my take for now. Still time.

[NorEastermass128]

I’ll work some good bday juju for the 18th. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Also I think the Euro can't be trusted like it used to be around day 5. go with the consensus and ensembles

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This one has origins in the south, so you have that going for it. However. the flow is very progressive so this won't get too far north either. But that said, there is a garbage airmass to start which favors up north and into maybe nrn Mass. Pike south should not expect much. Maybe a little snow to end, or rain to mix interior like Kevin. That's my take for now. Still time.

We shredola. Like a 1-3” type event for C and SNE. Can envision a rain to snow deal 

[Typhoon Tip]

Conflicting schools on the Saturday thing ...

Firstly, glad to see folks coming around to giving it attention - mentioned this yesterday... that had an icy look, albeit below mid impact, for the interior, with similar snow implications to S VT/NH... and here we are with the models converging on the climate/experience, therefrom.  That said, you know ...advisory?  But there is interesting aspect below:

Deterministic philosophy on a meaningless event, by Jack Handy lol:  The conflicts are less whether there will be a flat wave rolling thru.  I think even the confidence of it forced S and staying < ALB-BOS latitude, is also > 50%. 

The conflicts are this business about over-assessment of mechanical power by the models in the mid/ext ranges, vs. systems seem to over perform QPF relative to modeling after the fact.  Those two are offsets...  It's like the system verifies weaker, but then drops 30" of snow from a (sarcastic) cumulus cloud

As to the former, the models are consummately having to shed a goodly amount of there prior systemic 'might,' as the forecast interval in question comes inside of 120 hours.  Here we are on the cusp at ...108 or so.  I'd like to see this be consistent particularly at hour 72, or I don't put Scott's snark re shred fest more inside the realm of possible results.  I don't know what causes the constant inflating of features out there in time, but it is a fairly consistently observable model error/biasing for me.   My suspicious is that the flow is having to be sped up, and that stretches things and starts attenuating fields...etc... complex.

I don't know... that said, I've also seen flat waves just over-perform because one or two synoptic/mechanical aspects are on roids.   That one or two parametrics overwhelm a total system profile that looks less than pedestrian at first glance...  Kind of Lance Bozartian and the "Lil' critters that bite" ...   

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Conflicting schools on the Saturday thing ...

Firstly, glad to see folks coming around to giving it attention - mentioned this yesterday... that had an icy look, albeit below mid impact, for the interior, with similar snow implications to S VT/NH... and here we are with the models converging on the climate/experience, therefrom.  That said, you know ...advisory?  But there is interesting aspect below:

Deterministic philosophy on a meaningless event, by Jack Handy lol:  The conflicts are less whether there will be a flat wave rolling thru.  I think even the confidence of it forced S and staying < ALB-BOS latitude, is also > 50%. 

The conflicts are this business about over-assessment of mechanical power by the models in the mid/ext ranges, vs. systems seem to over perform QPF relative to modeling after the fact.  Those two are offsets...  It's like the system verifies weaker, but then drops 30" of snow from a (sarcastic) cumulus cloud

As to the former, the models are consummately having to shed a goodly amount of there prior systemic 'might,' as the forecast interval in question comes inside of 120 hours.  Here we are on the cusp at ...108 or so.  I'd like to see this be consistent particularly at hour 72, or I don't put Scott's snark re shred fest more inside the realm of possible results.  I don't know what causes the constant inflating of features out there in time, but it is a fairly consistently observable model error/biasing for me.   My suspicious is that the flow is having to be sped up, and that stretches things and starts attenuating fields...etc... complex.

I don't know... that said, I've also seen flat waves just over-perform because one or two synoptic/mechanical aspects are on roids.   That one or two parametrics overwhelm a total system profile that looks less than pedestrian at first glance...  Kind of Lance Bozartian and the "Lil' critters that bite" ...   

This “lil” critter is coming in shredded. Like taco lettuce 

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Also I think the Euro can't be trusted like it used to be around day 5. go with the consensus and ensembles

There's some false infamy thrown at it, lately, too.

When a model is always superior, separated from the pact and peerless, a bad performance or two creates this disproportionate gravitas, and just like in human parlance ..it is unjust - because people were pining all along in a coveted head-space, to see the celebrating taken down.    Haha. 

we do this in our culture with people, to... The more a famous and popular and good-looking the transcendence's intangible mystique is, watch out should that individual f'up and be human even once.  Discarded ... usually, they're dropped,  fading to irrelevancy; but then some may resurface a decade later with new understated draw and gain popularity back slow cooked.  

Anyway, the Euro's been shakier that last 18 or so months... given - but shakier is still better than all other guidance by empirical measure.  I was just mentioning yesterday, that model bested the GFS ghost nor'easter it kept selling ... run after ran after run, earlier in the month. There were threads started for what ultimately worthwhiled to dim sun cirrus, because the striking consistency of the GFS grew too difficult to ignore ... if perhaps resist.   The Euro might have had it once or twice at D9..but it dropped it really pretty early, stayed the course, and silently won that debacle by a pretty bad looking pantsing - 

That, and... D5's  - boy have expectations changed over the years, huh?  I mean, I remember back in 1992 ...97 like it was yesterday, and nothing had any rights on that day anyway.   funny -

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Ugh, it's that time of year when your posts give me the general idea of bad trends for mby. 

That being said, I never expected anything before 12/25. more of a longshot or hail mary

People mock me when I sat Winter doesn't start in our area till after Christmas.  But it's true.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12z GFS doesn't look to have changed much.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Let me clarify my shrederola mindset.  What I mean is I don't think there will a strong defined SLP wound up on the coast.  I think we see a weaker SLP >1000mb ride up along the baroclinic zone.  Definitely a better setup than the last hot pile of dung though as there is a more defined s/w embedded in the flow.  The last one was buckshot.  Watching the confluence to our north as well as the energy in the southwest to see if that pinches off further southwest.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Let me clarify my shrederola mindset.  What I mean is I don't think there will a strong defined SLP wound up on the coast.  I think we see a weaker SLP >1000mb ride up along the baroclinic zone.  Definitely a better setup than the last hot pile of dung though as there is a more defined s/w embedded in the flow.  The last one was buckshot.  Watching the confluence to our north as well as the energy in the southwest to see if that pinches off further southwest.

So a SWFE then, Got it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

12z GFS doesn't look to have changed much.

Ticked north...looks like 00z.

[CoastalWx]

Gfs not budging much. 

[CoastalWx]

44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This “lil” critter is coming in shredded. Like taco lettuce 

Only thing shredded for you will be the Ptype.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Only thing shredded for you will be the Ptype.

White xmas for Methuen, sleety xmas Tolland?

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Only thing shredded for you will be the Ptype.

Enjoy the rains on coastal plains ?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Enjoy the rains on coastal plains ?

Not sure how I’ll get over a half Inch of sleet?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would honestly like it to shred a bit...pretty precarious here as is.

[dryslot]

12z GFS doesn't have much interest for the 21st fwiw.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS doesn't have much interest for the 21st fwiw.

Good spot 

These disturbances are in no man's land right now

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS doesn't have much interest for the 21st fwiw.

8 days out…that’s an ok place to have that sh*t box model. 

[CoastalWx]

Canadian is pretty far north.

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Good spot 

These disturbances are in no man's land right now

 

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

8 days out…that’s an ok place to have that sh*t box model. 

Hence my fwiw comment, Which is little this far out, Follow the GEFS.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian is a Rainer for all of SNE

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian is pretty far north.

Yeah that solution is how I envision the system going. Pretty much nada south of MA/NH border. Just not a good antecedent airmass. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that solution is how I envision the system going. Pretty much nada south of MA/NH border. Just not a good antecedent airmass. 

I'm sure it will nail that, and then whiff on the blizzard.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

…and, we’re off.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that solution is how I envision the system going. Pretty much nada south of MA/NH border. Just not a good antecedent airmass. 

Yep.