December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

6z gfs 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

First thing I've seen in 18 hours ... greets me with perfection.  At least the day started the day off right!   This is the Dec 21 00z GGEM solution...  for 180 hours, as I am sure by now this is passe' with this particular crew of carpet surfers haha.   But, I did notice the page count upped a bit over night - hmm... intriguing. 

That's a 20" er with winds going bonkers on exit type of NJ Model bomb you read about in fiction ... only an ode to dreams.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That seems incorrect. GFS would certainly give snows further south.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

First thing I've seen in 18 hours ... greets me with perfection.  At least the day started the day off right!   This is the Dec 21 00z GGEM solution...  for 180 hours, as I am sure by now this is passe' with this particular crew of carpet surfers haha.   But, I did notice the page count upped a bit over night - hmm... intriguing. 

That's a 20" er with winds going bonkers on exit type of NJ Model bomb you read about in fiction ... only an ode to dreams.

This is why I am okay with the continued RNA in conjunction with an EPO cold load and high latitude blocking....I said yesterday that this is a pattern primed for your fabled NJ model deals.

[CoastalWx]

NJ model fetish.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That seems incorrect. GFS would certainly give snows further south.

That map can be stingy at the surface due to low level warmth, but either way, it doesn't seem significant over SNE.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That seems incorrect. GFS would certainly give snows further south.

Yeah the narcan maps are not correct. You aren’t getting moderate snows that don’t stick. Even at 33-34F any snow that’s under a mile vis is going to stick.  

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the narcan maps are not correct. You aren’t getting moderate snows that don’t stick. Even at 33-34F any snow that’s under a mile vis is going to stick.  

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That map can be stingy at the surface due to low level warmth, but either way, it doesn't seem significant over SNE.

Plenty cold near Dendy for good snows though. Just seemed odd.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That seems incorrect. GFS would certainly give snows further south.

I would say 75/25 compromise towards the F5 map without analyzing soundings and everything.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the narcan maps are not correct. You aren’t getting moderate snows that don’t stick. Even at 33-34F any snow that’s under a mile vis is going to stick.  

Well, my bad...at this range I just check maps quickly, but I shouldn't have made definitive statements if I wasn't going to analyze the solution....but no way am I getting 10" like the wxbell maps. Those are trash.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Plenty cold near Dendy for good snows though. Just seemed odd.

Its prob like advisory snows north of pike, which is the outcome I have favored right along.

 

[George001]

The closer range storm threat isn’t anything big but if the european guidance is correct could be a 3-6/4-8 type deal which is really good for this time of the year. The North Atlantic blocking is just starting to build in at that point, and it appears the flow is still fast so I don’t think there is a ton of room for error, but still something to keep an eye on. Now the next storm threat, that one I think is going to be big. By then the North Atlantic blocking is well established, and there is a high pressure to the north with temps in the teens right to the coast the night before the storm on the Canadian guidance. On the European guidance, the low misses to the south, but there are some big hits on the ensembles. Everything we need is there, cold, North Atlantic blocking, digging northern stream energy, southern energy to phase with, ect. 

[NorEastermass128]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Same. I think the coldest I have been is 23. It's been so mild lately. We haven't had those real bitter airmasses. 

Coldest here was 27 I believe a couple weeks ago. We’re still eating lettuce from the garden. It’s a hardy lettuce - whose name escapes me at the moment. 

[dryslot]

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't read too much into it given that the EPS mean is virtually unchanged...actually edged north at 06z.

It did, A few edges.

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dryslot said:

It did, A few edges.

 

up and in

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

up and in

Generally speaking yes.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dryslot said:

Generally speaking yes.

That's all we should be talking right now.

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Coldest here was 27 I believe a couple weeks ago. We’re still eating lettuce from the garden. It’s a hardy lettuce - whose name escapes me at the moment. 

Chicory…lol? 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh what load. 

don't disappoint PF

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It did, A few edges.

 

Yea, not worried about that shredded OP with that look.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That's all we should be talking right now.

Most know this, Some take model output as outcome even this far out.

[NorEastermass128]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Chicory…lol? 

Red leaf. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, not worried about that shredded OP with that look.

Deal with it,

Cosgrove

Beware of warmer, calmer forecasts this week and next. I make this remark because many of the numerical models cannot correctly figure what will happen in situations where stronger high-latitude blocking ridges exist, concurrently with an equally impressive subtropical jet stream. The evolution of a Bering Sea and Greenland/Iceland couplet ridging is well underway. Positive height anomalies in those positions favor the formation of cold 500MB vortices in Alberta and below Newfoundland. The USA result is that colder than normal temperatures are probable in all but Texas and the Dixie states. Climatology for this type of event allows for stronger cold frontal passages through the Midwest and the Eastern Seaboard above Interstate 40. With the active southern branch adding energy, there can be phased events off of the Mid-Atlantic shoreline. Much like what the GGEM panels show December 20-22. Not only is there the chance for a rogue snow event then (along and west of the major cities), but warm-ups will be hard to maintain. I suspect that another risk for an important precipitation event may occur between Christmas and New Year's. That cold pool setting up east of Sable Island NS creates a window for redevelopment, which could be especially potent if the subtropical jet stream energy joins in the fray. Be very careful when handling cold air and storm transitions over the next two or three weeks. Note that the heat ridge complex in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida gets suppressed after this week!

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, not worried about that shredded OP with that look.

I think i see where that op member is on there............lol

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Generally speaking yes.

Ugh, it's that time of year when your posts give me the general idea of bad trends for mby. 

That being said, I never expected anything before 12/25. more of a longshot or hail mary

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’m not sure how anyone could discount a weak, shredded solution after what happened to the last 2 “threats”…. Lots of football spiking for an event that’s 5 days away 

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not sure how anyone could discount a weak, shredded solution after what happened to the last 2 “threats”…. Lots of football spiking for an event that’s 5 days away 

Here, we root for shrederola. 

[Henry's Weather]

Ill be in Seattle from the 27th to the 2nd, so we'll definitely get a storm in that time frame 

[Damage In Tolland]

This will be on weaker side and south 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not sure how anyone could discount a weak, shredded solution after what happened to the last 2 “threats”…. Lots of football spiking for an event that’s 5 days away 

I'm not sure who spiked a football, but I am under the impression that the ensemble mean is the course of least regret in the medium range. In the last threat, the mean also drifted well se....we do not see that here.