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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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  On 12/13/2021 at 2:15 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

image.thumb.png.b5fbdde536c44504f2ac15920ba4f34f.png

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Yeah I should have clarified because the op was flatter (and maybe that does occur). Just my gut feeling...that might be more north. The one on the 21st looks much more interesting for you and perhaps the interior. Maybe Dec 2005-lite occurs for me like the 6z GFS shows. :lol: 

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  On 12/13/2021 at 2:22 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I should have clarified because the op was flatter (and maybe that does occur). Just my gut feeling...that might be more north. The one on the 21st looks much more interesting for you and perhaps the interior. Maybe Dec 2005-lite occurs for me like the 6z GFS shows. :lol: 

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My feeling on the first one is a SWFE that taints into CNE...just a guess.

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In any case, it's finally nice to look ahead and not see a 500mb blood bath over the northeast. I don't know how long it will last, but it also does not seem fleeting. I don't see signs of Nina like convection over the maritime continent roaring back and the easterly anomalies are kind of meh.  Maybe the beginnings of a base state change? 

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  On 12/13/2021 at 2:26 PM, CoastalWx said:

In any case, it's finally nice to look ahead and not see a 500mb blood bath over the northeast. I don't know how long it will last, but it also does not seem fleeting. I don't see signs of Nina like convection over the maritime continent roaring back and the easterly anomalies are kind of meh.  Maybe the beginnings of a base state change? 

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I feel like mid January will go to crap as we await the strat to lead the way for the second half.

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  On 12/13/2021 at 2:27 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like mid January will go to crap as we await the strat to lead the way for the second half.

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50mb strat gets elongated and digs into the CONUS at the end of the run. I take that as a good thing. Usually worst case is like a concentric circle over Siberia.

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  On 12/13/2021 at 2:29 PM, CoastalWx said:

50mb strat gets elongated and digs into the CONUS at the end of the run. I take that as a good thing. Usually worst case is like a concentric circle over Siberia.

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Partly my gut, but also based on a lot of researching analog years...... I think that PV is getting absolutely nuked beyond the mid way point of this season. Its going to be a wild second half...JMHO.

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  On 12/13/2021 at 2:42 PM, MJO812 said:

I'm patrolling naked if that happens

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Well, I went basically normal snowfall for NYC....don't get me wrong, I'm not calling for 1996 seasonal totals anywhere...but I think its going to be a departure from your typical nina snooze fest climo to close the season is what I mean. Should be some big cold shots and decent snow.

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  On 12/13/2021 at 2:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I went basically normal snowfall for NYC....don't get me wrong, I'm not calling for 1996 seasonal totals anywhere...but I think its going to be a departure from your typical nina snooze fest climo to close the season is what I mean. Should be some big cold shots and decent snow.

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Fine with me 

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  On 12/13/2021 at 2:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Naked KY sounding views Saturday?

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A different type of naked. The GFS tends to overmix (while the NAM tends to undermix)...why this is IDK but it's kinda annoying actually but how often do you see wind potential like this in a synoptic event? That part of the country does synoptic wind events much better than we do but this is still quite impressive for them. 

 

Winter dynamics aloft with a spring environment at the sfc

image.png.c436f285781950400fa0deb67abf847c.png

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  On 12/13/2021 at 3:18 PM, forkyfork said:

those chances can easily wind up as cutters with that western trough 

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Sure....but with the plentiful supply of cold air in Canada will ensure that it will at least begin as snowfall....and if the cold is pervasive enough, the system could triple point to the coast and be predominately snowfall.

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  On 12/13/2021 at 3:18 PM, forkyfork said:

those chances can easily wind up as cutters with that western trough 

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  On 12/13/2021 at 3:21 PM, forkyfork said:

if it's not a slam dunk KU pattern who cares. we've seen so many big events

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While perhaps not the favored outcome, you do realize that major Miller B cyclogenesis is still possible, correct?

Take a look at the 1968-1969 season.....1970-1971, as well.

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  On 12/13/2021 at 3:21 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure....but with the plentiful supply of cold air in Canada will ensure that it will at least begin as snowfall....and if the cold is pervasive enough, the system could triple point to the coast and be predominately snowfall.

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He thinks we can't get snow with a negative PNA. Chances of that further south are not as good as further north but as long the NAO and EPO cooperate , that should be enough. 

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