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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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The dailies of the 00z operational models ...wow, was that a fantastically active pattern out there post Thursday's correction front...   

I don't buy the model's being successful at loading 45 to 50 N across N/A with sub 534 dam non-hydrostatic heights, and then undulating mass fields along and S of there in order to penetrate 558 dam hydrostatic heights so wildly around mere 18 to 30 hour periodicities... Nope -

Fyi - Hydro' vs non-hydrostatic heights are two different atmospheric height metrics:  one integrates theta-e into the column, the other doesn't.  Since it takes energy to evaporate water into gaseous form ... that is why thickness (hydro') will always be lower than the geopotential heights (non-hydro')  - ingesting water into the column takes the gravitational potential energy to do it. Gravitational potential energy is a fancy physics phrase that just means how far your brains splat away from your skull when you fall from that elevation.  The more, the higher the starting point...etc...

But in this day-and-age of attention span I'm sure I've already lost the reader in that digression.

Anyway, I think it is more likely that weaker embedded wave mechanics in stream(s) will modulate the flow synoptics more realistically along shallower N-S variance.   That means ... less amplitude. 

The first most guilty of that above is the Euro - toss that run.  That said, there is definitely in my perspective, an early coalescent notion for a Dec 22nd system.  As mentioned yesterday ...the entire period nearing the Solstice and then extending ... probably out to the end of the month or even turning the page, appears more baroclinically charged in mean of that period.  If the 22nd bears holiday fruit, it may not be the only Xmas cake in the mix. 

 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And actually I got Ray’d a bit too in ‘94 as I was too far west in Brockton to get into the 30” CJ places to my east had. A good winter, but was disappointed to miss that one. Blizz ‘96 broke the 2’ cherry.

Yea. My weenie was broken so many times in the 80s and early 90s. Then the king came in Jan96 and put my weenie back on. It was euphoric going through the busts and underwhelming stretches to finally get a two day 2ft blizzard that closed school for the entire following week. 

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1 hour ago, Pluffmud said:

Why am I getting spam in my inbox? Someone with Sex photo? Geesh?

Stop responding to Kev after he starts his tree house brews

 

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I think my life would have been in jeopardy if I lived there. Surrounded by feet of snow and nothing to show. 
For me, it was being under 10 miles from like 18”. We were under a blizzard warning and we did change to snow, but the only thing I can think of was that it slotted a bit and as the marine layer moved back in as it retro’d we flipped back to rain and mangled crap. Absolute toaster bath given what was anticipated and how my excitement built. I was devastated.  
Some of the younger weenies could use that humble pie.

 

It was a nice suprise for me...I expected like 4-8" and remember listening to the forecasts continue to go up on my NOAA weather radio.

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Didn't realize you were younger than my oldest. All makes sense now

I had just turned 12....still one of my favs. I was still jealous or ORH, though....I'll never forget hearing that they were S+ already on the weather radio and then learning that ORH airport had already had 1' by the time air I flipped.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

December1992_snowfall_revised.PNG.4c7fd25f83ea97ce8e0e91e7ccfd04d8.PNG

That is the weirdest dang situation for accumulation and elevation dependency. It shows even Willimantic at 230 feet was in on the action. But ct valley totally screwed. 
 

these lapse rates were even more insane than you’d see in the Sierra Nevada in the Lee side Great Basin side 

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’ll need that to keep trending west. Otherwise, with the -pna trending stronger, we risk cutters.

mm  Still yet another valid convention/destiny with that, tho. 

The -EPO on top of a -PNA changes the map a little.  And, although a little, those nuanced scale differences can mean huge sensible impacts along various climate zones.  

Like ...( most know this, but - ), but if we flood cold into Canada off the -EPO loading pattern ( and to wit, this one really is outright modeled to actually do that in both major clusters ...), and then the -PNA drills Pacific flow across the continent, S of 40 N, that can lead all kinds of winter storm problems, regardless of the exact phase state of the PNA.  

image.png.c0689ea77ff8785cbc53e8e8c197cfb6.png

Blah blah, but events are more overrunning and sheared along steeper inversion as the storm profiles.  

Folks tend to look for the idealized set ups.  Like the coveted -PNA --> + PNA modal switch that leads to grandpa's Archembault coastal - heh. But -EPO with -PNA can result in positive tilted mean L/Ws that situate road SW flow at mid levels from NM to MN ... with flat waves running along the cold-thickness gradient underneath, each capable of moderate mixed QPF events. 

If this were no -EPO ..I wouldn't be posting this. But seeing and knowing that looms pretty solidly in both continuity and cross-guidance clustering, I'm inclined to believe that the actual lower tropospheric baroclinic axis ( Dec 20 to Jan 7 or so...) may in fact end up S of the mid level flow. 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm  Still yet another valid convention/destiny with that, tho. 

The -EPO on top of a -PNA changes the map a little.  And, although a little, those nuanced scale differences can mean huge sensible impacts along various climate zones.  

Like ...( most know this, but - ), but if we flood cold into Canada off the -EPO loading pattern ( and to wit, this one really is outright modeled to actually do that in both major clusters ...), and then the -PNA drills Pacific flow across the continent, S of 40 N, that can lead all kinds of winter storm problems, regardless of the exact phase state of the PNA.  

image.png.c0689ea77ff8785cbc53e8e8c197cfb6.png

Blah blah, but events are more overrunning and sheared along steeper inversion as the storm profiles.  

Folks tend to look for the idealized set ups.  Like the coveted -PNA --> + PNA modal switch that leads to grandpa's Archembault coastal - heh. But -EPO with -PNA can result in positive tilted mean L/Ws that situate road SW flow at mid levels from NM to MN ... with flat waves running along the cold-thickness gradient underneath, each capable of moderate mixed QPF events. 

If this were no -EPO ..I wouldn't be posting this. But seeing and knowing that looms pretty solidly in both continuity and cross-guidance clustering, I'm inclined to believe that the actual lower tropospheric baroclinic axis ( Dec 20 to Jan 7 or so...) may in fact end up S of the mid level flow. 

Yea, this is not going to be a KU pattern, nor was it ever expected to be. It's going to be an active pattern with a slew of moderate potential events....the most prominent of which is likely to occur during the holiday week.

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48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had just turned 12....still one of my favs. I was still jealous or ORH, though....I'll never forget hearing that they were S+ already on the weather radio and then learning that ORH airport had already had 1' by the time air I flipped.

I'm feeling very old all of a sudden.

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