CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 2:29 PM, ORH_wxman said: Southern NJ is def mid-atlantic....but pron not NNJ. Hilarious how all of NY State is labeled Mid-atlantic on that map....lol Expand Yeah I could see Atlantic city and srn NJ area as the Mid Atlantic if you want to divide NJ....but how they NY end up on that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 2:27 PM, CoastalWx said: What? LOL. Who made the map. Tossed. Expand Weird right? Everyone I looked up included all of NY State Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 2:32 PM, PhineasC said: VA is MA, not upstate NY. Expand My guess is that the author did it by state and included NY because of NYC, but still dumb. I consider NYC northern mid atl, but its iffy...I get it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 2:29 PM, ORH_wxman said: Southern NJ is def mid-atlantic....but pron not NNJ. Hilarious how all of NY State is labeled Mid-atlantic on that map....lol Expand It's silly to include as MA "Upstate" NY, basically everything north of Yonkers (or maybe north/west of the Tappan Zee). Also, all of NJ from the terminal moraine northward and PA north/west of Harrisburg, aren't really MA either, but political boundaries trump geography. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 The MA is a transition zone between the northeast and southeast. I include RIC to PHL/maybe Trenton basically. Just IMO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 2:41 PM, PhineasC said: The MA is a transition zone between the northeast and southeast. I include RIC to PHL/maybe Trenton basically. Just IMO. Expand Yeah this is what I view it as....S NJ to all of VA...and the zone in between. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 2:25 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Expand LOL!!! Was that run up with a clown snowfall map algorithm? I just about spit my coffee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 1:56 PM, EastonSN+ said: Expand those maps are a thing of beauty up here. enough ridging out west for amplitude, cold source nearby by not on top of us, ridging in the SE and Atlantic to feed moisture and push the track north enough, looks about as good as it gets for up here? If that Atlantic ridging builds up to the Davis Straight every once in a while, the the MA might have some fun. But this looks like a NNE CNE pattern am I right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 2:56 PM, mahk_webstah said: those maps are a thing of beauty up here. enough ridging out west for amplitude, cold source nearby by not on top of us, ridging in the SE and Atlantic to feed moisture and push the track north enough, looks about as good as it gets for up here? If that Atlantic ridging builds up to the Davis Straight every once in a while, the the MA might have some fun. But this looks like a NNE CNE pattern am I right? Expand That would be great here too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 2:57 PM, CoastalWx said: That would be great here too. Expand no need to be greedy, there's plenty for the needy and that's what he said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 2:57 PM, CoastalWx said: That would be great here too. Expand Ya I like that look for SNE too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Latest Teleconnections 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 2:57 PM, CoastalWx said: That would be great here too. Expand Yeah that look works from NYC on North. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 2:29 PM, ORH_wxman said: Southern NJ is def mid-atlantic....but pron not NNJ. Hilarious how all of NY State is labeled Mid-atlantic on that map....lol Expand Southern NJ isn’t even part of NJ. Different world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 2:28 PM, CoastalWx said: I'm going down to the Mid Atlantic to visit Lake Placid. Expand Thats the NEW Mid Atlantic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 3:17 PM, bwt3650 said: Southern NJ isn’t even part of NJ. Different world. Expand Upstate NY is a different world than NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 2:57 PM, CoastalWx said: That would be great here too. Expand Keep in mind that climo guidance will not pick op on any SSW activity, so should that happen as I think it may, it will be good well south of here later in Feb and into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 3:17 PM, bwt3650 said: Southern NJ isn’t even part of NJ. Different world. Expand For many folks, Jersey means NYC metro plus the corridor to Philly, period. West of there, the Jersey Highlands (where I grew up) are totally different, and to the south there's the Jersey Shore, pine barrens and farm country. When family moved from central Illinois to SNJ farm country, they found the land just as flat but instead of corn, beans and a few oil wells they saw trees and farm fields. Much nicer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Pattern starts to get going around the 18th on the gfs. Storm develops but cuts. It shouldn't cut with the blocking in Canada. Either way it's way out there to say anything. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 4:52 PM, MJO812 said: Pattern starts to get going around the 18th on the gfs. Storm develops but cuts. It shouldn't cut with the blocking in Canada. Either way it's way out there to say anything. Expand It's an impressive -NAO showing up on that run....but storms can still cut in a -NAO. The NAO just gives more wiggle room, but if you have a couple shortwaves phase, you can still cut. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 5:06 PM, ORH_wxman said: It's an impressive -NAO showing up on that run....but storms can still cut in a -NAO. The NAO just gives more wiggle room, but if you have a couple shortwaves phase, you can still cut. Expand Right, and correct me if I’m wrong… weren’t we discussing this last winter how the neggy NAO wasn’t doing much of anything to prevent cutters last season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 5:06 PM, ORH_wxman said: It's an impressive -NAO showing up on that run....but storms can still cut in a -NAO. The NAO just gives more wiggle room, but if you have a couple shortwaves phase, you can still cut. Expand Why he is looking at the day 10 OP is beyond me....the impressive NAO is probably suspect to begin with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 4:52 PM, MJO812 said: Pattern starts to get going around the 18th on the gfs. Storm develops but cuts. It shouldn't cut with the blocking in Canada. Either way it's way out there to say anything. Expand Use ensembles and cuff and stuff the op runs into the paddy wagon 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 5:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why he is looking at the day 10 OP is beyond me....the impressive NAO is probably suspect to begin with. Expand Epo pattern more likely than a negative nao pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 All I'm saying is that if the epo pattern depicted on the gfs is real , it's going to be hard for storms to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2021 Author Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 5:25 PM, MJO812 said: All I'm saying is that if the epo pattern depicted on the gfs is real , it's going to be hard for storms to cut. Expand No it isn't....EPO can provide some resistance and prompt a SWFE, but the mid levels would still fly west and maybe you get a triple point surface reflection to prevent torch. The EPO can provide an antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 FWIW GEM has a monster -NAO developing too post Dec 18 into Christmas week 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Torch seems rather muted here. Basically just THU/FRI into the 40s and then more cold drops in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 5:41 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: FWIW GEM has a monster -NAO developing too post Dec 18 into Christmas week Expand Ensembles are also starting to show it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 On 12/9/2021 at 5:15 PM, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Right, and correct me if I’m wrong… weren’t we discussing this last winter how the neggy NAO wasn’t doing much of anything to prevent cutters last season? Expand Well, the NAO did help prevent cutters....we only had one single cutter for like a 6 week period starting around New Years. Our biggest problem was we couldn't buy a storm to phase during the January pattern. The airmass was kind of stale but it was still marginally cold enough to support snow. I think ORH had a grand total of 3 days with a high temp over 40F last January despite the month being +3...that's hard to pull off. We were joking how we really needed Tip's hadley cell gradient during January....but it was nowhere to be found, lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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