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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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  On 12/9/2021 at 2:29 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Southern NJ is def mid-atlantic....but pron not NNJ.

Hilarious how all of NY State is labeled Mid-atlantic on that map....lol

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It's silly to include as MA "Upstate" NY, basically everything north of Yonkers (or maybe north/west of the Tappan Zee).  Also, all of NJ from the terminal moraine northward and PA north/west of Harrisburg, aren't really MA either, but political boundaries trump geography.

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  On 12/9/2021 at 1:56 PM, EastonSN+ said:

image.thumb.png.d4f387478e7cf47a362ddb5e72673805.png

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those maps are a thing of beauty up here.  enough ridging out west for amplitude, cold source nearby by not on top of us, ridging in the SE and Atlantic  to feed moisture and push the track north enough, looks about as good as it gets for up here?  If that Atlantic ridging builds up to the Davis Straight every once in a while, the the MA might have some fun.  But this looks like a NNE CNE pattern am I right?

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  On 12/9/2021 at 2:56 PM, mahk_webstah said:

those maps are a thing of beauty up here.  enough ridging out west for amplitude, cold source nearby by not on top of us, ridging in the SE and Atlantic  to feed moisture and push the track north enough, looks about as good as it gets for up here?  If that Atlantic ridging builds up to the Davis Straight every once in a while, the the MA might have some fun.  But this looks like a NNE CNE pattern am I right?

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That would be great here too. 

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  On 12/9/2021 at 3:17 PM, bwt3650 said:

Southern NJ isn’t even part of NJ.  Different world.

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For many folks, Jersey means NYC metro plus the corridor to Philly, period.  West of there, the Jersey Highlands (where I grew up) are totally different, and to the south there's the Jersey Shore, pine barrens and farm country.  When family moved from central Illinois to SNJ farm country, they found the land just as flat but instead of corn, beans and a few oil wells they saw trees and farm fields.  Much nicer.

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  On 12/9/2021 at 4:52 PM, MJO812 said:

Pattern starts to get going around the 18th on the gfs. Storm develops but cuts.  It shouldn't cut with the blocking in Canada.  Either way it's way out there to say anything. 

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It's an impressive -NAO showing up on that run....but storms can still cut in a -NAO. The NAO just gives more wiggle room, but if you have a couple shortwaves phase, you can still cut.

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  On 12/9/2021 at 5:06 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It's an impressive -NAO showing up on that run....but storms can still cut in a -NAO. The NAO just gives more wiggle room, but if you have a couple shortwaves phase, you can still cut.

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Right, and correct me if I’m wrong… weren’t we discussing this last winter how the neggy NAO wasn’t doing much of anything to prevent cutters last season?

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  On 12/9/2021 at 5:06 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It's an impressive -NAO showing up on that run....but storms can still cut in a -NAO. The NAO just gives more wiggle room, but if you have a couple shortwaves phase, you can still cut.

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Why he is looking at the day 10 OP is beyond me....the impressive NAO is probably suspect to begin with.

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  On 12/9/2021 at 5:25 PM, MJO812 said:

All I'm saying is that if the epo pattern depicted on the gfs is real , it's going to be hard for storms to cut.

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No it isn't....EPO can provide some resistance and prompt a SWFE, but the mid levels would still fly west and maybe you get a triple point surface reflection to prevent torch. The EPO can provide an antecedent airmass.

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  On 12/9/2021 at 5:15 PM, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Right, and correct me if I’m wrong… weren’t we discussing this last winter how the neggy NAO wasn’t doing much of anything to prevent cutters last season?

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Well, the NAO did help prevent cutters....we only had one single cutter for like a 6 week period starting around New Years. Our biggest problem was we couldn't buy a storm to phase during the January pattern. The airmass was kind of stale but it was still marginally cold enough to support snow. I think ORH had a grand total of 3 days with a high temp over 40F last January despite the month being +3...that's hard to pull off.

 

We were joking how we really needed Tip's hadley cell gradient during January....but it was nowhere to be found, lol.

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