ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 4:35 PM, CoastalWx said: Backdoored? LOL. Expand If we can warm sector on Thursday, we could challenge all time monthly high temp records. We're looking at like +10 to +14C 850 temps. Similar to 12/29/84 and 12/6-7/98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 4:24 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: You are hilarious, whats the meteorological explanation behind that outlook which is 2 weeks away? Expand could be wrong but based upon the teleconnections, it looks like more of a grinder/shredder pattern where you'd look for a clipper or miller-B. Assuming we see -EPO MJO p7 and perhaps a neutral or becoming slightly neg NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 4:35 PM, CoastalWx said: Backdoored? LOL. Expand Tip will Christine if that happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 3:14 PM, ORH_wxman said: Going into Phase 8 would definitely help as we go into late Dec/January....IIRC we actually had a potent phase 8 wave in January 2011 after the huge NAO blocking broke down post-Jan 12th storm. I believe the same thing happened in January 2009 after the NAO blocking broke down early in the month. Expand 12/2010 seemed similar to me across the whole lower 48. Not sure about the mild up next week. But midwest snows and sierras getting crushed happened that month as well. Im sure it's not the same overall pattern at all but it just feels similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 I’m expecting to be in the lower 40s during the “torch.” Not a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 3:31 PM, PhineasC said: No weather in NJ today it seems, once again. Expand You new here? Forky's been posting in our Forum since this site started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 4:54 PM, PhineasC said: I’m expecting to be in the lower 40s during the “torch.” Not a big deal. Expand I think we’ll get a couple days that could go more. It looks pretty mild anytime it mixes out. Relative to normal it’s pretty warm. But normal is lower up here, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 2:28 PM, Typhoon Tip said: In fact, looking further west over Japan, I am noticing in both the EPS and GEFs ( they agree! holy shit, huh ...) the day 10 to 15 range is plunking L/W heights deeper through the Japan Sea with rather large circumvallate - that's typically more likely related to alterations in the torque/R-wave transmitting down from Asia. So congrats Sukayu Onsen?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 5:01 PM, powderfreak said: I think we’ll get a couple days that could go more. It looks pretty mild anytime it mixes out. Relative to normal it’s pretty warm. But normal is lower up here, ha. Expand Thursday could be a pretty damned warm, though I worry about the CAD eroding fast enough to maximize it.....most of New England will be backdoored on Wednesday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 5:07 PM, ORH_wxman said: Thursday could be a pretty damned warm, though I worry about the CAD eroding fast enough to maximize it.....most of New England will be backdoored on Wednesday though. Expand You can see the model 2m temps trying to pick out cold pockets and warmth mixing in later next week with CAD pockets. Pretty cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 You gotta lock the CFS Monthly if your a cold and snow lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 I’m actually looking forward to the warmth. No ice to slip on and comfy temperatures to walk in day and night. Gotta watch for ticks in the woods though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 5:17 PM, powderfreak said: You can see the model 2m temps trying to pick out cold pockets and warmth mixing in later next week with CAD pockets. Pretty cool. Expand Ugh that looks like low to mid 30s here while everyone else is in thongs and bikinis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 5:30 PM, dendrite said: Ugh that looks like low to mid 30s here while everyone else is in thongs and bikinis. Expand 60 for Phin and 35 for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 5:30 PM, dendrite said: Ugh that looks like low to mid 30s here while everyone else is in thongs and bikinis. Expand Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 5:30 PM, dendrite said: Ugh that looks like low to mid 30s here while everyone else is in thongs and bikinis. Expand Look on the bright side, you might conserve a half inch pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 4:56 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: You new here? Forky's been posting in our Forum since this site started. Expand i've known some of you since 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 5:57 PM, forkyfork said: i've known some of you since 2001 Expand Don't lie, if Dec 26 2010 happened, you'd be posting nude on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 5:37 PM, CoastalWx said: 60 for Phin and 35 for you? Expand If I get south winds at 65 mph like yesterday, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 6:02 PM, CoastalWx said: Don't lie, if Dec 26 2010 happened, you'd be posting nude on here. Expand we are light years away from anything resembling that pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 1:21 PM, Ginx snewx said: Surprised you didn't post these Expand Wow I hope that’s right, the models change so much especially long term that it doesn’t make sense to panic this early about a ratter. I know I did with my panic room post, but I realize that was an overreaction to a bad model run. It’s something to watch, but I do think I jumped the gun saying shit like 2019-2020 and 2011-2012. The polar vortex is quite powerful right now, but even if it doesn’t weaken a ton we have other influences like the MJO and La Niña structure working in our favor long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 4:48 PM, Torch Tiger said: could be wrong but based upon the teleconnections, it looks like more of a grinder/shredder pattern where you'd look for a clipper or miller-B. Assuming we see -EPO MJO p7 and perhaps a neutral or becoming slightly neg NAO Expand Miller B is exactly what most of the subforum wants...maybe save for Luke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 5:30 PM, dendrite said: Ugh that looks like low to mid 30s here while everyone else is in thongs and bikinis. Expand Ha I thought the same thing. You to Tamarack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 5:17 PM, powderfreak said: You can see the model 2m temps trying to pick out cold pockets and warmth mixing in later next week with CAD pockets. Pretty cool. Expand Jesus, that CAD gradient is a hair N of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 5:07 PM, ORH_wxman said: Thursday could be a pretty damned warm, though I worry about the CAD eroding fast enough to maximize it.....most of New England will be backdoored on Wednesday though. Expand I honestly feel like Cosgrove has been the best out there these past couple seasons...guys has, and continues to be money. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 5:21 PM, leo2000 said: You gotta lock the CFS Monthly if your a cold and snow lover. Expand I think that pattern, like the RNA/+EPO, will be a recurring theme this season. We saw that warm SW/cold bleed into NE much of Novie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 6:18 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Miller B is exactly what most of the subforum wants...maybe save for Luke. Expand I love Miller Bs I hope we get a bunch of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 6:21 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I honestly feel like Cosgrove has been the best out there these past couple seasons...guys has, and continues to be money. Expand Yeah Larry is on a hot streak. He’s picking up something that many are missing over the past few seasons. Not sure how but kudos to him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 6:23 PM, weathafella said: Yeah Larry is on a hot streak. He’s picking up something that many are missing over the past few seasons. Not sure how but kudos to him! Expand I have noticed he tends jump around his analogs alot, but ends up with the right idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heat Miser Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/8/2021 at 3:09 PM, Cold Miser said: The beginning of the end of winter. Expand Back broken. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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