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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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  On 12/8/2021 at 4:24 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

You are hilarious, whats the meteorological explanation behind that outlook which is 2 weeks away?

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could be wrong but based upon the teleconnections, it looks like more of a grinder/shredder pattern where you'd look for a clipper or miller-B.  Assuming we see -EPO MJO p7 and perhaps a neutral or becoming slightly neg NAO

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  On 12/8/2021 at 3:14 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Going into Phase 8 would definitely help as we go into late Dec/January....IIRC we actually had a potent phase 8 wave in January 2011 after the huge NAO blocking broke down post-Jan 12th storm. I believe the same thing happened in January 2009 after the NAO blocking broke down early in the month.

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12/2010 seemed similar to me across the whole lower 48.  Not sure about the mild up next week.  But midwest snows and sierras getting crushed happened that month as well.  Im sure it's not the same overall pattern at all but it just feels similar. 

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  On 12/8/2021 at 2:28 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

In fact, looking further west over Japan, I am noticing in both the EPS and GEFs ( they agree! holy shit, huh ...) the day 10 to 15 range is plunking L/W heights deeper through the Japan Sea with rather large circumvallate - that's typically more likely related to alterations in the torque/R-wave transmitting down from Asia. 

So congrats Sukayu Onsen?


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  On 12/8/2021 at 5:01 PM, powderfreak said:

I think we’ll get a couple days that could go more.  It looks pretty mild anytime it mixes out.  Relative to normal it’s pretty warm.  But normal is lower up here, ha.

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Thursday could be a pretty damned warm, though I worry about the CAD eroding fast enough to maximize it.....most of New England will be backdoored on Wednesday though.

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  On 12/8/2021 at 5:07 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Thursday could be a pretty damned warm, though I worry about the CAD eroding fast enough to maximize it.....most of New England will be backdoored on Wednesday though.

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You can see the model 2m temps trying to pick out cold pockets and warmth mixing in later next week with CAD pockets. Pretty cool.

8E645E2C-460E-4732-849A-0CE93BB18EE7.thumb.png.4dc3f27fb6d9a06121afb85343fb35fe.png

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  On 12/8/2021 at 1:21 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Surprised you didn't post these

cfs-mon_01_T850aMean_month_nhem_1.png

cfs-mon_01_T2maMean_month_nhem_1.png

cfs-mon_01_z500aMean_month_nhem_1.png

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Wow I hope that’s right, the models change so much especially long term that it doesn’t make sense to panic this early about a ratter. I know I did with my panic room post, but I realize that was an overreaction to a bad model run. It’s something to watch, but I do think I jumped the gun saying shit like 2019-2020 and 2011-2012. The polar vortex is quite powerful right now, but even if it doesn’t weaken a ton we have other influences like the MJO and La Niña structure working in our favor long term.

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  On 12/8/2021 at 4:48 PM, Torch Tiger said:

could be wrong but based upon the teleconnections, it looks like more of a grinder/shredder pattern where you'd look for a clipper or miller-B.  Assuming we see -EPO MJO p7 and perhaps a neutral or becoming slightly neg NAO

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Miller B is exactly what most of the subforum wants...maybe save for Luke.

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  On 12/8/2021 at 5:07 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Thursday could be a pretty damned warm, though I worry about the CAD eroding fast enough to maximize it.....most of New England will be backdoored on Wednesday though.

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I honestly feel like Cosgrove has been the best out there these past couple seasons...guys has, and continues to be money.

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  On 12/8/2021 at 6:23 PM, weathafella said:

Yeah Larry is on a hot streak.  He’s picking up something that many are missing over the past few seasons.  Not sure how but kudos to him!

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I have noticed he tends jump around his analogs alot, but ends up with the right idea. 

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