December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, 512high said:

Tip school me, you and others keep talking "fast flow", seems to take its sweet ass time to get here(mean cold), then when it arrives, seems when a threat is near, doesn't have time to get a storm  organized........because of the "fast flow"

Ahmm, is there a question in this above ?  

[EasternLI]

Some interesting factors on the field for the mjo this season, it would seem. From a recent paper on the MJO. I'm really interested in how things work out this season. 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/1/jcli-d-18-0811.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display

Specifically, under cool ENSO, easterly QBO, and SMIN conditions, evidence favors a strengthened wave train that propagates farther eastward and more strongly modulates SLP and SAT anomalies. The modulation is increased further when two or more of these conditions are simultaneously in effect. While internal intraseasonal variability is large and these influences may not be apparent during a given MJO cycle in a given winter, the length of currently available reanalysis datasets allows them to be detected via averaging and construction of mean MJO phase composites.

[forkyfork]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs 

as though you know what the mjo is

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

as though you know what the mjo is

Why are you a big troll ? Get lost

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, 512high said:

A lot of cold air to our friends in the north, still hoping for snow on the ground for Christmas.......baby steps

If we all have to wait until then , so be it. Snow around the holidays are amazing.

[dendrite]

Sunsets start getting later today. 

[MJO812]

Download Windy on the app store. You can look at Webcams from every city. Great for weenies.

[Cold Miser]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sunsets start getting later today. 

The beginning of the end of winter.

[ORH_wxman]

Going into Phase 8 would definitely help as we go into late Dec/January....IIRC we actually had a potent phase 8 wave in January 2011 after the huge NAO blocking broke down post-Jan 12th storm. I believe the same thing happened in January 2009 after the NAO blocking broke down early in the month.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Did the EPS do a major 360 degree turn on the warmth?. 

Credit goes to Bamwx 

 

 

Such a big 360degree turn that it came full circle:

[forkyfork]

7 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Did the EPS do a major 360 degree turn on the warmth?

no

[Typhoon Tip]

Clarification:

Guys ( gals ) there are two distinct time intervals in question.

The warm up is in tact, between ~ D5 and 10

The anticipation for a pattern change is after that period.

There is no EPS reversal in question... never was.  The EPS isn't backing down on the warmth.

What it is doing, is introducing/emerging a thereafter pattern change, one that has both cross-guidance support in the GEFs and EPS. As well as some other observational tedium... etc.  

However, it should be noted that the extended stuff ( duh ) is by constraint of "extended" lower confidence -

 

[FPizz]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Such a big 360degree turn that it came full circle:

Theirs is a 5 day mean (days 6-10), yours isn't, right?  

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Theirs is a 5 day mean (days 6-10), yours isn't, right?  

so desperate for those blue colors 

[PhineasC]

No weather in NJ today it seems, once again. 

[WeatherWilly]

61 degrees Saturday. At least 5 days next week's with temps in the 50s.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Clarification:

Guys ( gals ) there are two distinct time intervals in question.

The warm up is in tact, between ~ D5 and 10

The anticipation for a pattern change is after that period.

There is no EPS reversal in question... never was.  The EPS isn't backing down on the warmth.

What it is doing, is introducing/emerging a thereafter pattern change, one that has both cross-guidance support in the GEFs and EPS. As well as some other observational tedium... etc.  

However, it should be noted that the extended stuff ( duh ) is by constraint of "extended" lower confidence -

 

Yeah this is pretty much it....it's still pina coladas, parrots, and banana hammocks next week, but the guidance is starting to get more aggressive for a favorable Pacific beyond that. We still are contending with the big -PNA, but it's not digging the trough as much as before. It's more like PAC NW instead of max anomalies down in CA and even into Baja.

[CoastalWx]

I don't know why since Novie wasn't a torch, but i am seeing some shrubs blooming again. LOL.  

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't know why since Novie wasn't a torch, but i am seeing some shrubs blooming again. LOL.  

not up our way

...But that did happen later in Novie, after the Halloween deal back in the day.   And I've heard of this around S coastal peeps over the years since, too -

I think it is a real floral biology response to CC, personally ...

Think about basics:   Carpet flora has to be ready to go at a moment's notice, or they get their sunlight subsumed by canopy species.  That's just why in spring, shrubs and lawn green up first.  Get a toe-hold on their nutrient quota before the pigs wake up ... Lol.

But, just bearing that concept in mind, it kinda fits?  If the soil temps, and the ambient air is having difficulty falling to some evolutionary trigger thresholds, this may "confuse" those species into thinking it's April 3 in the middle of mud season.

I tell ya tho... definitely be interesting to check back in around D10 after we've logged 4 days of 65 to 70/ 50 for low

[SouthCoastMA]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't know why since Novie wasn't a torch, but i am seeing some shrubs blooming again. LOL.  

my lawn is still green

[Snowcrazed71]

40 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

The beginning of the end of winter.

Right.. That hasnt even begun. Lolol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

27 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Theirs is a 5 day mean (days 6-10), yours isn't, right?  

Here is your d6-11 5d mean:

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just accept it and look forward to 12/20+.

[SouthCoastMA]

On 12/1/2021 at 1:37 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

until modeling stops showing a train of lows traversing the UP of Michigan into Southern Quebec..I'm out. I'll check back in a week and maybe things shake out a bit

*checks back

.....

*checks out 

[nianticct]

First flakes flying in waterford 

[Torch Tiger]

Looks like post 12-20 we go cold and dry, probably little to if any snow beyond that.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Looks like post 12-20 we go cold and dry, probably little to if any snow beyond that.

You are hilarious, whats the meteorological explanation behind that outlook which is 2 weeks away?

[ORH_wxman]

Next Wed/Thu torch could be "ruined" by a sneaky high pressure to the north. Been showing up on a lot of guidance.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Next Wed/Thu torch could be "ruined" by a sneaky high pressure to the north. Been showing up on a lot of guidance.

Backdoored? LOL. 

[Hazey]

My gut tells me this torch is muted somewhat. The more north and east you are, the better. Could be mild in New England, somewhat normal in the Maritimes, and down right chilly in Newfoundland. The cold air is lurking and maybe we get backdoored sort of speak.