December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The extreme -PNA is really crushing the east with warmth in the extended. We can usually deal with a -PNA at this latitude, but not when there entire longwave trough is digging down into Baja.

Like, here's the EPS at D15....you can see the AK ridge is totally restored...that is actually quite a stout -EPO, but look at how insane that -PNA is.

 

 

Yea…and then moving forward the -pna retros into the AK region and strengthens, flooding the conus with puke air. This ain’t good.

[powderfreak]

32 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Every Snow gun in Vermont will be on until Friday.  They are pushing hard to make the stateside/tramside connection at Jay before the weekend.  I think the real issues won't be the nne resorts; rather places like Hunter or the poconos.  They might not even get the occasional night or two to resurface what little they have.

Very true.  My vantage point and comments come from a mountain in NNE that will average colder than those spots further south.  The crew in NVT, NNH, NWME will see it mitigated in actuals compared to spots like the Catskills, Poconos, Berkshires.  There’s a big latitude difference there.

Relative to normal it could be the same, but normals are colder up north… mild high/lows of 45/25 hit differently than south at 55/35 with regard to snow preservation at ski areas.

[bwt3650]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Very true.  My vantage point and comments come from a mountain in NNE that will average colder than those spots further south.  The crew in NVT, NNH, NWME will see it mitigated in actuals compared to spots like the Catskills, Poconos, Berkshires.  There’s a big latitude difference there.

Relative to normal it could be the same, but normals are colder up north… mild high/lows of 45/25 hit differently than 55/35 with regard to snow preservation at ski areas.

And we get that backside "fake" snow to help resurface too..

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

And we get that backside "fake" snow to help resurface too..

It sounds dumb, but even that dusting to 1-2" after a rainer has a more wintry appeal than going rain to cold/dry/frozen ground.

Frozen standing water is one thing, at least add a skiff coating of snow to the local fields to give a wintry feel.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Ski Sundown in January of 2007, after about 1 1/2 months of absolute torch. Not a lot of snow,  but enough to ski on. Shows the durability of Man-made snow. 

Enormous turn around in weather conditions starting in February.  Huge amounts of snow at Sugarloaf in April,  100".

8

[CoastalWx]

Finally looking ahead and it does seem like after 12/20 we may see a change, but don’t be surprised if that is delayed until closer to Christmas. 
That’s a stout -EPO. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Finally looking ahead and it does seem like after 12/20 we may see a change, but don’t be surprised if that is delayed until closer to Christmas. 
That’s a stout -EPO. 

I don't know.....Forky's smiley face composite was pretty compelling evidence otherwise....

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know.....Forky's smiley face composite was pretty compelling evidence otherwise....

LOL. Hey it might be pushed out, but this isn’t the AK pig eye. That’s some wintry weather coming out west and into the Plains probably. You’ll probably hear Seattle and Portland in the news.

[weathafella]

4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea…and then moving forward the -pna retros into the AK region and strengthens, flooding the conus with puke air. This ain’t good.

Has that happened yet this season (flooding conus) despite low heights). Also, is there any guidance showing that?

week 3-6 of Monday’s weeklies:

if anything the January implication is split flow fun.

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[ORH_wxman]

Ensembles trended a bit better overnight. Still a ways out but perhaps Xmas week can be salvaged. Monster EPO ridge...

[Great Snow 1717]

10 hours ago, George001 said:

It’s too early to give up on winter. We are getting the shitty pattern out of the way early, I’d rather that than something like 2019-2020 with a big storm early December then just turns to garbage. The polar vortex is going to stop deepening and start weakening soon.

...and you know this to be a certainty???

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Resembles summer...

[Lava Rock]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

time to move to Alaska.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

time to move to Alaska.

If you think about all those winters where AK and the west fried while we had fun....time to pay up. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

Has that happened yet this season (flooding conus) despite low heights). Also, is there any guidance showing that?

week 3-6 of Monday’s weeklies:

if anything the January implication is split flow fun.

 

 

There is. LR eps vanishes the late Dec epo ridge after first week of Jan. There is some hint at Leon on last night’s run for mid Jan before the epo troughs again. 

[CoastalWx]

Some good news I think.

 

 

Some signs of an eastward progression of the MJO and easterly 850 wind anomalies. So at some point we should see things change a bit which the guidance is showing later this month. 

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There is. LR eps vanishes the late Dec epo ridge after first week of Jan. There is some hint at Leon on last night’s run for mid Jan before the epo troughs again. 

LR EPS only goes to the 23rd

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

LR EPS only goes to the 23rd

Better pattern develops near the 20th on the gfs.

Mjo goes into 8 on the gfs

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Surprised you didn't post these

[EastonSN+]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Better pattern develops near the 20th on the gfs.

Mjo goes into 8 on the gfs

Even ECMWF has it going into phase 7 heading to 8, albeit at a much slower pace. Both models have a stall in early phase 7 before progressing.

[ORH_wxman]

Even EPS may start offering winter wx chances again around 12/18-12/19. It's not a bad look.

 

 

[512high]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even EPS may start offering winter wx chances again around 12/18-12/19. It's not a bad look.

 

 

A lot of cold air to our friends in the north, still hoping for snow on the ground for Christmas.......baby steps

[forkyfork]

[Typhoon Tip]

Significant pattern change signaled  - just keeping along/adding to what Will and Scott and I have been chirping about since a couple days.

It got a little more coherent ( in the right direction ) over night.

We see definitive height rises in the WPO region; success with that anomaly distribution change would very likely relay into the EPO domain  - triggering the phase change from positive to negative there.  

This looks like the grears begin to turn around D8 actually ...but may take a the usual 3 to 5 days thereafter to transmit/force signaling down over the continent. 

This stuff is also orbital - cannot possibly get into extents of regional-concerning anomalies and so forth.  But we are in the scaffolding mode of early deterministic/canvas detection for now.  The winter enthusiasts should 'like what they are seeing', which is a step up from yesterday's 'pleezy weezy with sugar on top be real'

In fact, looking further west over Japan, I am noticing in both the EPS and GEFs ( they agree! holy shit, huh ...) the day 10 to 15 range is plunking L/W heights deeper through the Japan Sea with rather large circumvallate - that's typically more likely related to alterations in the torque/R-wave transmitting down from Asia.  In other words, this - albeit still early - pattern change detection, may be anchored hemispheric in scale.

I Don't believe these notions are very La Nina supported, not by linear statistical inference with that gunk - but ... mm, as I have been yammering for years now ..that model is being disrupted by climate change/apparent climate change factors, as is being accredited in science and papers emerge.  Without getting too deep - I could see an Asian carpet snap roll around the mid latitude and redistribute the R-wave anchor points ... and possibly supplant that La Nina signal which frankly ... we could get into arguments about it merely being weak-moderate in dimensions anyway.   If the aforemention factors get overwhelming, bye-bye La Nina... 

Also, the MJO is rather impressive ... it is still not hugely clear that it will manifest a wave momentum/propagation more over the N side of the Equatorial climate routing, but ... ( hint hint ) I think it may materialize.  The above looks regarding the Asian --> western Pac circulation exchange, 'supports' a Phase 7-2 strength, on the N side.  It lends to the MJO being in constructive feed-back with the Asian factor ...  but in destructive feed-back with the La Nina footprint.  To me, the math of this larger telecon  juggle works out to 2 constructive interference modes vs 1 destructive interference modes.   So the weight likely favors the coupling the MJO to the Asian --> WPO connection, damping the La Nina footprint - how long ...who knows.  But, you know how I feel about weak to moderate ENSO's during HC expansion anyway...lol.  no but seriously

[512high]

Tip school me, you and others keep talking "fast flow", seems to take its sweet ass time to get here(mean cold), then when it arrives, seems when a threat is near, doesn't have time to get a storm  organized........because of the "fast flow"

[EastonSN+]

Somewhat of a stall then onwards to 8.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

LR EPS only goes to the 23rd

Whatever the LR eps is on weathermodels. I guess it’s the weeklies. 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Somewhat of a stall then onwards to 8.

Gfs 

[Typhoon Tip]

 

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Somewhat of a stall then onwards to 8.

Yup ...

    part of my apprehension with the MJO inclusion in all this ..    I think it's competing large scale emergence' going on, which causes that sort of 'cavitation' in the wave propagation. 

The La Nina circulation foot-print ( whether modulated by HC expansion or not... ) is still there, as this wave is attempting to move out of the Marine continent you see there in the RMM..  It's like 'bouncing' ( conceptually ) off as it heads into inhibition as a maybe metaphor. 

Anyway, as the Asian signal ( growing in the EPS and GEFs ) perhaps gather's momentum out there D10, that will couple with this MJO and that creates a future state of synergistic feedback - they constructively interfere and the outcome exceeds the La Nina inhibition.   Para phrasing what I just took readers through above.. 

But back on point, I think that's why that wave is doing that in the prognostic mean there like that.  Note, it's been doing it all along, tho.  It's had that curling back as it has emerged over the last week, but the verification keeps "winning" the battle and it's grown in strength anyway.  Interesting...