December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[Great Snow 1717]

53 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

There should be no surprise at all. 

[Great Snow 1717]

44 minutes ago, George001 said:

When I see that map I think of one thing, golf. That’s straight up golf weather, may as well take advantage of this warm spell before we the pattern changes and we get hammered in January 2023

Fixed your post...

[Torch Tiger]

50 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Gonna have to check out tee times available for next week.

Unlike the ski trails, should be some great conditions out there

[Typhoon Tip]

Not to add to the dreary tenor in here but ... Jesus.   The D10+ fairy tale range of the GEFs don't really reflect any change, despite what I was mentioning earlier. 

As they typically do beyond D10, mean fades to that tendency for entropy ( annularity ) flow by 300 .. But, it's refusing to stop face-smacking lol... It's maintaining ghosts of the same positive anomaly nodes way out there anyway. 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to add to the dreary tenor in here but ... Jesus.   The D10+ fairy tale range of the GEFs don't really reflect any change, despite what I was mentioning earlier. 

As they typically do beyond D10, mean fades to that tendency for entropy ( annularity ) flow by 300 .. But, it's refusing to stop face-smacking lol... It's maintaining ghosts of the same positive anomaly nodes way out there anyway. 

 

 

The extreme -PNA is really crushing the east with warmth in the extended. We can usually deal with a -PNA at this latitude, but not when there entire longwave trough is digging down into Baja.

Like, here's the EPS at D15....you can see the AK ridge is totally restored...that is actually quite a stout -EPO, but look at how insane that -PNA is.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The extreme -PNA is really crushing the east with warmth in the extended. We can usually deal with a -PNA at this latitude, but not when there entire longwave trough is digging down into Baja.

Like, here's the EPS at D15....you can see the AK ridge is totally restored...that is actually quite a stout -EPO, but look at how insane that -PNA is.

 

 

Yeah..agreed - and the EPS is more robust with the NE Pacific height recovery than the GEFs by D10. 

The only reason why I think there is some hope for D11 -16 ... if biasing later rather than sooner we must, is because it appears there are west Pacific changes in play (maybe) leading. Usually when that happens, the GEFs have to reel by forcing and then they'll show a change more coherently at some critical threshold. 

The MJO ... it's dubiously contributing, but favorably nonetheless... CPC think's west Pac TC activation may take place - if we can distort the major circulation eddy with flux from these sources, the GEFS may not be seeing that yet The EPS .. not sure if that's exactly what that is, but maybe-

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah..agreed - and the EPS is more robust with the NE Pacific height recovery than the GEFs by D10. 

The only reason why I think there is some hope for D11 -16 ... if biasing later rather than sooner we must, is because it appears there are west Pacific changes in place leading. Usually when that happens, the GEFs have to reel by forcing and then they'll show a change more coherently at some critical threshold. 

The MJO ... it's dubiously contributing, but favorably nonetheless... CPC think's west Pac TC activation may take place - if we can distort the major circulation eddy with flux from these sources, the GEFS may not be seeing that yet The EPS .. not sure if that's exactly what that is, but maybe-

Yeah and it's also possible the downstream ridging is overdone (or the extent of the western PNA trough)....I know I don't have to tell you that even if you displace that eastern ridge by a couple hundred miles to the south, we'd probably be quite cold as the northern edge of the positive 500mb height anomalies are quite cold underneath...that arctic airmass will be sloped of course.

[forkyfork]

[greenmtnwx]

On the bright side the timing of the -pna pattern is ideal for rolling into a wintry pattern for the holiday. Grinch likelihood low this year as the SE ridge pushes east in response to beneficial stages of the mjo we should be sitting pretty for a good holiday period from after the 20th to the NY. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said:

On the bright side the timing of the -pna pattern is ideal for rolling into a wintry pattern for the holiday. Grinch likelihood low this year as the SE ridge pushes east in response to beneficial stages of the mjo we should be sitting pretty for a good holiday period from after the 20th to the NY. 

Agree.

[leo2000]

I don't know what is so wrong about a -PNA pattern. I am more worried about a +EPO , But that +EPO should be going away. I seen winters where the cold goes from the West Coast to the East Coast with a combo of -EPO and -PNA. We can have a trough west and trough east is what I am saying. 

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[Ginx snewx]

38 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

I don't know what is so wrong about a -PNA pattern. I am more worried about a +EPO , But that +EPO should be going away. I seen winters where the cold goes from the West Coast to the East Coast with a combo of -EPO and -PNA. We can have a trough west and trough east is what I am saying. 

Kona low to boot. I think after the next week we are gonna see something historical beginning to develop across the country. Fully expect the Christmas week heading into the New Year to be crazy. No George type hype just what I perceive based on past experience and the hemispheric look. Hold my feet to the fire.

[Sugarloaf1989]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Man-made snow is very dense and melt resistant.  The snow being put down now is high in density and base building.  Of greater concern is the high volume of gappers on limited opened terrain. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Man-made snow is very dense and melt resistant.  The snow being put down now is high in density and base building.  Of greater concern is the high volume of gappers on limited opened terrain. 

Think Sugarloaf will survive?

[Sugarloaf1989]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Konami low to boot. I think after the next week we are gonna see something historical beginning to develop across the country. Fully expect the Christmas week heading into the New Year to be crazy. No George type hype just what I perceive based on past experience and the hemispheric look. Hold my feet to the fire.

No family left here, so I'm traveling to my sister's for Christmas and New Year,  she's 200 miles away.  Hopefully nothing crazy happens weather wise. 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Kona low to boot. I think after the next week we are gonna see something historical beginning to develop across the country. Fully expect the Christmas week heading into the New Year to be crazy. No George type hype just what I perceive based on past experience and the hemispheric look. Hold my feet to the fire.

Very interesting.

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Think Sugarloaf will survive?

LOL yeah the "mega torch" doesn't seem too bad up here.

Coastal SNE weenies always panic. Reminds me of MD weenies in 2014 before it stopped snowing there.

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

By "ski country" they mean some bump in suburban MA?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL yeah the "mega torch" doesn't seem too bad up here.

Coastal SNE weenies always panic. Reminds me of MD weenies in 2014 before it stopped snowing there.

Careful of “the charts” 

[Torch Tiger]

charts!

[PhineasC]

Being from down south, I never thought the ski places could hold snow as well as they do up here. Last mid March it torched to near 70 several days in a row and the ski places kept going into April. This doesn't seem like a big deal. They turn off the guns and have some soft conditions for 4-5 days and then it freezes up again. The nights don't look warm either. The high mins is the real torch up here. 40/25 is not a big deal. 

[PowderBeard]

1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Man-made snow is very dense and melt resistant.  The snow being put down now is high in density and base building.  Of greater concern is the high volume of gappers on limited opened terrain. 

White ribbons of death.

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Being from down south, I never thought the ski places could hold snow as well as they do up here. Last mid March it torched to near 70 several days in a row and the ski places kept going into April. This doesn't seem like a big deal. They turn off the guns and have some soft conditions for 4-5 days and then it freezes up again. The nights don't look warm either. The high mins is the real torch up here. 40/25 is not a big deal. 

Plus no sun strength now…so it’ll be just fine. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Kona low to boot. I think after the next week we are gonna see something historical beginning to develop across the country. Fully expect the Christmas week heading into the New Year to be crazy. No George type hype just what I perceive based on past experience and the hemispheric look. Hold my feet to the fire.

There is nothing in guidance that suggests this so we’ve tied your feet up and hung you pig roast style over the firepit…ready to fry on 12/20 if we epocity is nowhere in sight.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Being from down south, I never thought the ski places could hold snow as well as they do up here. Last mid March it torched to near 70 several days in a row and the ski places kept going into April. This doesn't seem like a big deal. They turn off the guns and have some soft conditions for 4-5 days and then it freezes up again. The nights don't look warm either. The high mins is the real torch up here. 40/25 is not a big deal. 

I think it’s usually because people don’t realize the amount of water being pumped as snow.  The QPF is off the "charts” (ba dum bum ching).

I always tell people, remember how long it can be warm with March/April/May sun angles with dews too… and how long those man-made ribbons last.  That stuff seems to survive two weeks without sniffing freezing.  Granted it doesn’t look great, but you’re trying to melt like 2-3 feet of sleet right now.

[powderfreak]

The biggest issue by far for ski areas is a lack of expansion in operations heading into one of the busiest 1-2 weeks of the entire winter.

They won’t close but they won’t be expanding, which puts terrain buildout probably at least two weeks behind when you consider the mild stretch the week before Thanksgiving that delayed openings.

A good 14-24” nor’easter would fix it quickly at any time though.

[George001]

5 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Fixed your post...

It’s too early to give up on winter. We are getting the shitty pattern out of the way early, I’d rather that than something like 2019-2020 with a big storm early December then just turns to garbage. The polar vortex is going to stop deepening and start weakening soon.

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Kona low to boot. I think after the next week we are gonna see something historical beginning to develop across the country. Fully expect the Christmas week heading into the New Year to be crazy. No George type hype just what I perceive based on past experience and the hemispheric look. Hold my feet to the fire.

Im not sure what a Kona low is but I like the sound of it.

[bwt3650]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The biggest issue by far for ski areas is a lack of expansion in operations heading into one of the busiest 1-2 weeks of the entire winter.

They won’t close but they won’t be expanding, which puts terrain buildout probably at least two weeks behind when you consider the mild stretch the week before Thanksgiving that delayed openings.

A good 14-24” nor’easter would fix it quickly at any time though.

Every Snow gun in Vermont will be on until Friday.  They are pushing hard to make the stateside/tramside connection at Jay before the weekend.  I think the real issues won't be the nne resorts; rather places like Hunter or the poconos.  They might not even get the occasional night or two to resurface what little they have.