December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[ORH_wxman]

Next two cycles are going to be huge as one of the key pieces of energy comes on shore in BC. We’ll see if that changes some of the solutions. When we have a proclivity for a SE ridge with no blocking and you happen to get some energy more consolidated than previously, then that’s how you get those aggressive N trends that we are used to in La Niña events. 

That’s what I’ll be watching for. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/12/early-season-winter-storm-possible-mid.html

Wolfie’s fangs are out, looking west from Southington…starring right down 84. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

16 minutes ago, DFRI said:

Big spread between the two. 

Weenie jack over @Baroclinic Zone

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Next two cycles are going to be huge as one of the key pieces of energy comes on shore in BC. We’ll see if that changes some of the solutions. When we have a proclivity for a SE ridge with no blocking and you happen to get some energy more consolidated than previously, then that’s how you get those aggressive N trends that we are used to in La Niña events. 

That’s what I’ll be watching for. 

The gfs turning this into a full blown coastal is also kind of on its own right now. Would like to see things move towards that.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wolfie’s fangs are out, looking west from Southington…starring right down 84. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The gfs turning this into a full blown coastal is also kind of on its own right now. Would like to see things move towards that.

Yeah I’m not biting on that yet. It’s possible but you need everything to go right. We’re kind of trying to thread the needle in getting a truly big solution (say a widespread 8-14” type storm). We don’t have any real blocking and we have a SE ridge, but at the same time the flow is quite progressive...so that will limit how far NW it can trend.   

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’m not biting on that yet. It’s possible but you need everything to go right. We’re kind of trying to thread the needle in getting a truly big solution (say a widespread 8-14” type storm). We don’t have any real blocking and we have a SE ridge, but at the same time the flow is quite progressive...so that will limit how far NW it can trend.   

Yeah I’d sell on that for now… there Is hope for a cooler flatter solution though 

[Hazey]

Crush job on the 18z gfs. Still a lots of time but that would be fun. I can remember a few winters up this way where the first storm of the season ended up being the biggest of the winter.


#NovaScotiaStrong

[kdxken]

24 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Weenie jack over @Baroclinic Zone

 I think you could have phrased that a little better.

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 I think you could have phrased that a little better.

Already finished to the 18z run. 

[weathafella]

18Z euro not biting it would seem.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

18Z euro not biting it would seem.

Congrats North Carolina 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/12/early-season-winter-storm-possible-mid.html

Looks like the opposite of last year's seasonal snowfall distro.

[leo2000]

Oh yes hehe

 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18z icon looks good for SE Mass…. Not much elsewhere 

[MJO812]

Euro is clouds

[HoarfrostHubb]

Light snow here (right now)  Wasn’t expecting that. 

[DavisStraight]

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Light snow here (right now)  Wasn’t expecting that. 

Noticed that on radar, was wondering if it was hitting the ground.

[Spanks45]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is clouds

One of these models are going to face plant hard really soon, sadly it always seems to be the GFS that stumbles hard in the 4th quarter. But it is a new season, so who knows...

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Noticed that on radar, was wondering if it was hitting the ground.

Yep.  Light dusting.  Festive as we are wrapping gifts

[Spanks45]

7 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

SWC has 30-35” for interior WCT.

Would be my worst season since moving up here....but still well above the average from where I used to live, so there's that

[alex]

Dumping here 

[rimetree]

Light snow shower coming through now. Nice to see. Temps dipped earlier this evening below freezing but now back up to 35F

[Sn0waddict]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is clouds

Perfect. Room for it to move north.  

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, alex said:

Dumping here 

That little engine that could SW putting down a very festive look up there. Some of my favorite snows are the ones coming out of Canada diving in at night pre Christmas. Enjoy 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That little engine that could SW putting down a very festive look up there. Some of my favorite snows are the ones coming out of Canada diving in at night pre Christmas. Enjoy 

I salute you. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I salute you. 

Nothing better than NNE around Christmas time. Currier and Ives for sure. Driving down the highway looking at stick season was sad today. We need a visual enhancement.

[Typhoon Tip]

If anything I’d be worried about over assessing while it was over the Pacific

You know I talked about this a month ago

Ever since the Boxing Day storm seems like we can’t correct storms bigger when they come onshore; they’re always being proven to have been over-assimilated.

As an aside …I wonder if that is done on purpose to protect against short term corrections toward life-threatening storms. 

“might” be why we’ve been noticing in general how storms keep getting corrected or normalize downwards when they’re passing from mid range to shorter terms in recent winters. 

I’m not 86 in the current one.  I’m just sayin …be prepared for the Gfs to possibly been showing really good continuity based on bullshit assimilation

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If anything I’d be worried about over assessing while it was over the Pacific

You know I talked about this a month ago

Ever since the Boxing Day storm seems like we can’t correct storms bigger when they come onshore; they’re always being proven to have been over-assimilated.

As an aside …I wonder if that is done on purpose to protect against short term corrections toward life-threatening storms. 

“might” be why we’ve been noticing in general how storms keep getting corrected or normalize downwards when they’re passing from mid range to shorter terms in recent winters. 

I’m not 86 in the current one.  I’m just sayin …be prepared for the Gfs to possibly been showing really good continuity based on bullshit assimilation

Yep, it's a concern.

[moneypitmike]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If anything I’d be worried about over assessing while it was over the Pacific

You know I talked about this a month ago

Ever since the Boxing Day storm seems like we can’t correct storms bigger when they come onshore; they’re always being proven to have been over-assimilated.

As an aside …I wonder if that is done on purpose to protect against short term corrections toward life-threatening storms. 

“might” be why we’ve been noticing in general how storms keep getting corrected or normalize downwards when they’re passing from mid range to shorter terms in recent winters. 

I’m not 86 in the current one.  I’m just sayin …be prepared for the Gfs to possibly been showing really good continuity based on bullshit assimilation

That sounds very 'tin-foil hat', Tip.