Modfan2 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon Lock it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, that's why I didn't get the punting notion....its not a slam dunk snowy month, but shouldn't be punted, either. Ray, what your thoughts on the easterly winds weakening to allow mjo to propagate correctly instead of hitting brick wall in warm phases Bamwx alludes to? Also, east based niña trending? Just trying to be optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 I am all about Icons. I mean we have our own Icon in Scooter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: Ray, what your thoughts on the easterly winds weakening to allow mjo to propagate correctly instead of hitting brick wall in warm phases Bamwx alludes to? Also, east based niña trending? Just trying to be optimistic Way too much focus on la nina at this point...its basin wide and centered slightly east. Not a ton to be gleaned from that, but its not going to become purely east based anytime soon. As for the MJO, I am certainly no expert on that, but everything I have seen seems to imply that it will be on the move, which favors my wintery expectation later this month. Even if its weak...certainly won't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, that's why I didn't get the punting notion....its not a slam dunk snowy month, but shouldn't be punted, either. I said my my my... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I said my my my... Bamwx is really backtracking on the punt idea, but by the way...we could be wrong and it be still mild lol Way to say zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Looks like that weakens it in phase 7, which I would be fine with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 I’m not a believer in this storm for my area. I believe it will rain, not snow due to the lack of North Atlantic blocking preventing the storm from going inland and flooding us with mild air. Unfortunately, that means Metfan will also get rain. I hope I’m as wrong as I was last time, but the pattern doesn’t look great for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, George001 said: I’m not a believer in this storm for my area. I believe it will rain, not snow due to the lack of North Atlantic blocking preventing the storm from going inland and flooding us with mild air. Unfortunately, that means Metfan will also get rain. I hope I’m as wrong as I was last time, but the pattern doesn’t look great for this one. My area down here sucks for snow . There is a reason why I only average 28 inches . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, George001 said: I’m not a believer in this storm for my area. I believe it will rain, not snow due to the lack of North Atlantic blocking preventing the storm from going inland and flooding us with mild air. Unfortunately, that means Metfan will also get rain. I hope I’m as wrong as I was last time, but the pattern doesn’t look great for this one. You'll get some snow, but probably a messy event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You'll get some snow, but probably a messy event Maybe something like 1-3/2-4 inches before a changeover to freezing rain then rain type deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, George001 said: Maybe something like 1-3/2-4 inches before a changeover to freezing rain then rain type deal? Probably...maybe a bit of sleet, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 I'll say this...we are going to get a SSW in the second half that will rock typical nina climo..you can take that to the bank. Remember I said this when all the natural gas trading groupies start to scramble later this season because it will happen. Pretty big failure on my part if it doesn't. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I am all about Icons. I mean we have our own Icon in Scooter Hopefully that was a compliment lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Gfs is way different than the other models lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is way different than the other models lol That looks like it handles CAD better than the euro lol. What have they done to it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully that was a compliment lol. Talk about the wind damage Monday / Monday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That looks like it handles CAD better than the euro lol. What have they done to it? Ask the experts about the Euro. Ever since that stupid upgrade it's garbage. I remember the model use to nail storms days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 That’s actually really nice inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll say this...we are going to get a SSW in the second half that will rock typical nina climo..you can take that to the bank. Remember I said this when all the natural gas trading groupies start to scramble later this season because it will happen. Pretty big failure on my part if it doesn't. JB is hyping a pv split at 50mb is underway right now leading to 84-85 type winter lol or similarities to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Mr. Kevin said: JB is hyping a pv split at 50mb is underway right now leading to 84-85 type winter lol or similarities to it It comes right back though. It’s a brief split or interruption. Ray is referring to something more substantial later in the winter which is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 @40/70 Benchmark isn't this nina now east based? These are current surface temps for each region using the tropical tidbit site 4/ -.645 3.4/ -.844 3/ -1.084 1.2/ -1.679. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ask the experts about the Euro. Ever since that stupid upgrade it's garbage. I remember the model use to nail storms days out. Forcast accuracy for North America was probably not a major concern when the changes were made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s actually really nice inland. Wind damage ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wind damage ? A branch will end up on your lawn. It may tinkle your windows on the way down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 So when is someone starting the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll say this...we are going to get a SSW in the second half that will rock typical nina climo..you can take that to the bank. Remember I said this when all the natural gas trading groupies start to scramble later this season because it will happen. Pretty big failure on my part if it doesn't. Helped us last year in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 47 minutes ago, weathafella said: A branch will end up on your lawn. It may tinkle your windows on the way down. Will you tinkle on the window? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 As a coastal dweller (college in Cambridge), I'd want that high west of Maine to avoid easterly winds, but favorable look nonetheless for pike on north on the 18z GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will you tinkle on the window? If I can reach it… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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