J Paul Gordon Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Looks like a potentially good hit for N Central MA back to the Berkshires. We would be snow to mix to some rain here in Worcester. Snow maps a bit confusing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 seems like the models are selling a scenario where we get these Lakes bombs, followed by a low end snow here, rolls right back into a warm up and Lakes bomb... rinse repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 7:27 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: Do they trend north or do they just under estimate the expanse of QPF in the day 3-5 range? Expand They do come north, And the qpf field is usually quite large too, Coming up from the SW and gathering gulf moisture with it, But it had a sheared look to it on today's modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 The narcan is 3-5 from WNJ thru northern NYC burbs into ORH. At D5 though, it’s meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 6:43 PM, ORH_wxman said: The pattern in clown range is totally different than 12 hours ago. Popping a temporary EPO ridge and flooding the CONUS with arctic air. Expand It’s laughable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 6:40 PM, MJO812 said: What warmup ? Expand This one: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 7:54 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This one: Expand Gone the next run ? Ready for a white Christmas ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Those highs have sped up in guidance like 90% of the times when starting D5 <-- inwards... It'll be interesting if this one bucks that solidly dependable trend - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 6:18 PM, ORH_wxman said: Unless the high position drastically changes (which is still possible), the sfc will almost undoubtedly trend colder based on where it is N of CAR. Model bias 101....eroding the sfc cold too fast, esp when a stout arctic high straps its fanny into a row boat in the St LAwrence seaway near Quebec City. Expand On 12/3/2021 at 6:35 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that banana needs to be rotated counter clockwise about 90 degrees. Expand ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 7:54 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This one: Expand 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 7:55 PM, MJO812 said: Gone the next run ? Ready for a white Christmas ? Expand The mid month warmup has been there for many runs. Our best bet is to grab an inch or two beforehand and then hope Ray’s late month pattern change is on target. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Nothing like a pattern change (short term or long) just before Christmas. Major snowstorm around the 20-22. Below freezing temps through New Year (at least) so kids on vacation can enjoy their sleds, skis, whatever during the Christmas break. This far out dreaming of a white Christmas is more entertaining than dreaming about the annual grinch storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 7:58 PM, Ginx snewx said: ? Expand A typical banana high classic for locking in cold to the coastline is an arc from N of Maine to the Great Lakes region.....not from N Maine to the Atlantic....the latter configuration will still lock in the CAD over the interior, but it will definitely set up a CF somewhere near or west of 128/95 and allow marine air to infiltrate a chunk of the CP. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 7:32 PM, weathafella said: The SV snow maps tend to be more conservative vs most. They’re no narcan though... Expand The storm vista maps for euro and eps are always 100% wrong and too snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 8:14 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The mid month warmup has been there for many runs. Our best bet is to grab an inch or two beforehand and then hope Ray’s late month pattern change is on target. Expand Ahhh no snow for us you said. Don’t start back pedaling now Luke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 8:28 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: The storm vista maps for euro and eps are always 100% wrong and too snowy. Expand They all are except for F5 Narcan maps...but SV is better than wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 8:41 PM, WinterWolf said: Ahhh no snow for us you said. Don’t start back pedaling now Luke. Expand I guess if we get 1-2” that is quickly washed away, satisfies your hunger and thus equates to me being wrong. I’ll concede to your great call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 7:42 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The narcan is 3-5 from WNJ thru northern NYC burbs into ORH. At D5 though, it’s meaningless. Expand What is a narcan? Navgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 And I’m not backtracking. 1-2” could be our ceiling lol. Congrats and slap yourself silly with a red tag if it happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 9:01 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: What is a narcan? Navgem? Expand The F5wx snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 8:59 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I guess if we get 1-2” that is quickly washed away, satisfies your hunger and thus equates to me being wrong. I’ll concede to your great call. Expand On 12/3/2021 at 9:02 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And I’m not backtracking. 1-2” could be our ceiling lol. Congrats and slap yourself silly with a red tag if it happens. Expand We’ll see how it plays out. Nobody’s right or wrong on Friday Luke. Your ceiling yesterday was “No. Snow. For. Us.” So we’ll each stand by our calls. And see how it unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Fight , fight, fight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 9:14 PM, WinterWolf said: We’ll see how it plays out. Nobody’s right or wrong on Friday Luke. Your ceiling yesterday was “No. Snow. For. Us.” So we’ll each stand by our calls. And see how it unfolds. Expand Oh. It is Friday so we are right about: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Icon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 9:22 PM, MJO812 said: Expand I love the, “the opposite can be said if this doesn’t happen.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 9:26 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I love the, “the opposite can be said if this doesn’t happen.” Expand They canceled December last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 9:30 PM, MJO812 said: They canceled December last week. Expand Absolutely correct. The volatility has been off the charts of late. When it’s(the modeling) doing that, it’s crazy to buy into any one idea in the long term….good or bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 9:34 PM, WinterWolf said: Absolutely correct. The volatility has been off the charts of late. When it’s(the modeling) doing that, it’s crazy to buy into any one idea in the long term….good or bad. Expand Yea, that's why I didn't get the punting notion....its not a slam dunk snowy month, but shouldn't be punted, either. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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