PhineasC Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Would rather have it north than south, IMO. North trend is a myth, at last since I moved up here. Smoking cirrus at 20 degrees is a real threat here, but it will still snow here either way probably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Even more comical is the warmup between 12z Thu and 18z Thu...despite winds going almost due north on a trajectory from dendrite's fanny to ORH....it must think the diurnal heating over interior New England has the same enery per sq meter as Mercury or Venus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 6:39 PM, ORH_wxman said: Even more comical is the warmup between 12z Thu and 18z Thu...despite winds going almost due north on a trajectory from dendrite's fanny to ORH....it must think the diurnal heating over interior New England has the same enery per sq meter as Mercury or Venus. Expand LOL, I'd have to see what the upgrade tweaked. But if that is messed up, boy is that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just fired up a threat thread ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 What warmup ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 6:39 PM, PhineasC said: Would rather have it north than south, IMO. North trend is a myth, at last since I moved up here. Smoking cirrus at 20 degrees is a real threat here, but it will still snow here either way probably. Expand These usually are not a myth, That's why i like it being south right now it probably ends up more amped even in a fast flow, Its 6-9hrs and gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 The pattern in clown range is totally different than 12 hours ago. Popping a temporary EPO ridge and flooding the CONUS with arctic air. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Bring back the Swiss model. That thing was going Commando on the other models in CAD. Arnold Schwarzenegger on model temps with rocket propelled grenades and AR-15s to the GFS back in 2017-2019. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 6:40 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Just fired up a threat thread ... Expand Nice! You are good luck for here based on last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Me taking down OCM forecasts with the Swiss back in the glory days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 6:43 PM, CoastalWx said: Bring back the Swiss model. That thing was going Commando on the other models in CAD. Arnold Schwarzenegger on model temps with rocket propelled grenades and AR-15s to the GFS back in 2017-2019. Expand 4 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 6:49 PM, ORH_wxman said: Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 I think I was one of two fans of that model, but it nailed the pre Christmas ice here (2017?) The Christmas snow in 2017, and then the nasty icing event in January 2019. Will and Ray, this was the storm that started at the GTG in ORH as flurries. It was driving the cold into SE MA when nobody...I mean nobody had it near even 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 6:46 PM, PhineasC said: Nice! You are good luck for here based on last winter. Expand Ha - I didn't' actually tho ... It was a jest to encourage groaning lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Man, eastern MN is setting up for a Younger Dryas blizzard with that -28 C air sitting right there and getting sucked into that circulation like that. How about wind gusts to 55 mph, temperature of -15 F, and shattered snow dust down to 20 feet visibility blue dimming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 6:52 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Ha - I didn't' actually tho ... It was a jest to encourage groaning lol. Expand I almost bit, But i wasn't getting Bobbed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 6:51 PM, CoastalWx said: I think I was one of two fans of that model, but it nailed the pre Christmas ice here (2017?) The Christmas snow in 2017, and then the nasty icing event in January 2019. Will and Ray, this was the storm that started at the GTG in ORH as flurries. It was driving the cold into SE MA when nobody...I mean nobody had it near even 128. Expand Yeah I liked it when it was free on weather.us. It's on Maue's site I believe since he collaborated with Joerg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Eps colder and weaker compared to 6z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 6:35 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that banana needs to be rotated counter clockwise about 90 degrees. Expand I’ve heard that in some intense but tender moments.... 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 7:01 PM, dendrite said: Yeah I liked it when it was free on weather.us. It's on Maue's site I believe since he collaborated with Joerg. Expand I just found it did so well in mesoscale events like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 7:07 PM, weathafella said: I’ve heard that in some intense but tender moments.... Expand Two surgeons getting busy? Or a plumber's wife. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 7:07 PM, MJO812 said: Eps colder and weaker compared to 6z Expand I’ll lock is 6-8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Those storm vista clown maps should be banned. They must have a weenie snow ratio algorithm that starts at 15:1. EPS is a 2-3” mean for most of southern New England a bit less south and east. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 6:53 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Man, eastern MN is setting up for a Younger Dryas blizzard with that -28 C air sitting right there and getting sucked into that circulation like that. How about wind gusts to 55 mph, temperature of -15 F, and shattered snow dust down to 20 feet visibility blue dimming Expand The children's blizzard of 1888 in the Great Plains...people were getting knocked on their arses whenever they touched their wood stoves thanks to St. Elmo's Fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 7:13 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Those storm vista clown maps should be banned. They must have a weenie snow ratio algorithm that starts at 15:1. EPS is a 2-3” mean for most of southern New England a bit less south and east. Expand They just updated the snow maps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 7:16 PM, Go Kart Mozart said: The children's blizzard of 1888 in the Great Plains...people were getting knocked on their arses whenever they touched their wood stoves thanks to St. Elmo's Fire. Expand Snow crystals slamming against each other is the leading theory of how thunderstorms get electrified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 6:40 PM, dryslot said: These usually are not a myth, That's why i like it being south right now it probably ends up more amped even in a fast flow, Its 6-9hrs and gone. Expand Do they trend north or do they just under estimate the expanse of QPF in the day 3-5 range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 7:27 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: Do they trend north or do they just under estimate the expanse of QPF in the day 3-5 range? Expand Will explained it well earlier. Couple of things. One being the nrn stream s/w as we know can be underestimated. So that may trend a bit stronger although not always. The other is the southeast ridge. Guidance seems to underestimate that several days out, and then slowly gets modeled a little stronger on guidance. So if you are really unlucky, you have the combo of that to bring this north a bit with each run. Sometimes it's usually like 70/30 a combo. But it's not a myth, and still seems to occur. Now the flow is progressive, so it is possible this remains sort of sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Back in the Nina 07-09 days, the GFS was classic in that it would have a low modeled southeast of the benchmark and come back 200 miles NW in 4-5 days. The euro typically did much better with these and ended up closer to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 The SV snow maps tend to be more conservative vs most. They’re no narcan though... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now