December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like the high was 49.8...settled back to 49.3.

Mild day, but no torch.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

59 here with monkey's swinging through the oaks.

Fak.  41/39 and cloudy here with occasional mist.

[dryslot]

Line them up while we can before it gets hostile.

[CoastalWx]

We take the EPS for next week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We take the EPS for next week.

I would be pretty surprised if that one doesn't work out for a few inches from around the pike in and N in MA.

[J Paul Gordon]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will end up 1-2” to ice to rain 

Maybe 2-4 here and then the same? Didn't even know flakes were in the (potential maybe if we dream hard enough) forecast south of the 44th. Hey if the ground is still white a couple days after the event I'll count it as a win.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be pretty surprised if that one doesn't work out for a few inches from around the pike in and N in MA.

I prefer it for personal reasons haha, but that is nice for many. 

[J Paul Gordon]

Got up to 56F but now 55. Dewpoint has dropeed a couple degrees, too. 

 

[dryslot]

Models have been starting to show some lts snows up here possibly on the 5th.

[Modfan2]

51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty classic SWFE on Euro. High end advisory to low end warning for much of MA and into NH/VT and S ME...N CT may be ok too on that run.

I could see mixing in lower elevation of N CT

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I could see mixing in lower elevation of N CT

Yea, I doubt anyone from I84 on up gets completely shut out.

[mahk_webstah]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pike points north good, I-84 points north servicable.

KCON and up is great.

Next GTG in Concord?  Or CH?

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is nice for 128 N and W. Maybe even to Kevin. Regarding next week.

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like about 4-5" here.

 

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty classic SWFE on Euro. High end advisory to low end warning for much of MA and into NH/VT and S ME...N CT may be ok too on that run.

 

59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's one of the better runs for that event. Not bad.

 

58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You'll want that high to hang on a little longer than shown....which it might. Way too far out for details. The thing could be hundreds of miles different by next week. But verbatim, that high sliding east starts to turn the BL into a problem inside 128/I-95.

Be careful Forky will call you out, no wait no he won't no ballz

[ORH_wxman]

Still not liking the EPS in the 11-15....need a little more ridge amplification in the PAC to press that cold down. It's not far away from being good...central and western Canada are frigid....this isn't like a 2011 or 2015 furnace across the entire continent where the source is gone and on the other side of the pole...it's lurking, but we don't want to get stuck on the wrong side of the gradient.

[weatherwiz]

Nice to see fairly strong high pressure to the north as well ahead of the system. Could be a big game changer (in a positive way) for many. Anyways, trying not to get too hyped up about these D5-6+ threats this winter. The track record with these systems the past few winters have been pretty horrific. The patterns we have been in have just been pure hell from a modeling standpoint. 

But could be the last chance for quite a while...pretty strong signals for Pacific air to flood much of the country. However, given the degree of cold air that sticks around in Canada there will be quite a battle ground so northern New England could get slammed. I am getting a feeling this could be like a 70-71 type winter (I think that's the winter places like PWM and BTV got destroyed?) 

[Typhoon Tip]

According to the weekly PDF/publication that summarizes the MJO ( found at the RMM url), ... I wouldn't be inclined to think this apparent emerging wave strength does much for the Americas.   The ballast of the wave momentum, according to them ... is over the southern lapse region of the MJO latitudes.  In other words, ...it's not really intuitive that it is forcing much on the north side ...

Which, as an aside, I think the MJO suffers do to HC absorption too...   The wave may be damped by La Nina circulation foot-print in these phase 6-8's,  ..so seeing this one emerge is interesting in itself, - I get that.  But, neither may be as effective in forcing the wave distribution of the westerlies in present climate circumstance/era.

 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still not liking the EPS in the 11-15....need a little more ridge amplification in the PAC to press that cold down. It's not far away from being good...central and western Canada are frigid....this isn't like a 2011 or 2015 furnace across the entire continent where the source is gone and on the other side of the pole...it's lurking, but we don't want to get stuck on the wrong side of the gradient.

Yeah the low heights are flushed out of AK but then the ridging doesn’t seem to build.   Hopefully that changes.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Nice to see fairly strong high pressure to the north as well ahead of the system. Could be a big game changer (in a positive way) for many. Anyways, trying not to get too hyped up about these D5-6+ threats this winter. The track record with these systems the past few winters have been pretty horrific. The patterns we have been in have just been pure hell from a modeling standpoint. 

But could be the last chance for quite a while...pretty strong signals for Pacific air to flood much of the country. However, given the degree of cold air that sticks around in Canada there will be quite a battle ground so northern New England could get slammed. I am getting a feeling this could be like a 70-71 type winter (I think that's the winter places like PWM and BTV got destroyed?) 

I got slammed in LEW, 144.90" here that winter.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yeah the low heights are flushed out of AK but then the ridging doesn’t seem to build.   Hopefully that changes.

Hopefully we trend that a bit more amplified in AK/Bering

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Nice to see fairly strong high pressure to the north as well ahead of the system. Could be a big game changer (in a positive way) for many. Anyways, trying not to get too hyped up about these D5-6+ threats this winter. The track record with these systems the past few winters have been pretty horrific. The patterns we have been in have just been pure hell from a modeling standpoint. 

But could be the last chance for quite a while...pretty strong signals for Pacific air to flood much of the country. However, given the degree of cold air that sticks around in Canada there will be quite a battle ground so northern New England could get slammed. I am getting a feeling this could be like a 70-71 type winter (I think that's the winter places like PWM and BTV got destroyed?) 

That was one of my analogs....def some parallels with the big negative PDO and okay arctic.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I mentioned this a day or two ago also…at least we have some action. Maybe we strike out for frozen, or maybe we time something right, but there will be activity it seems. 

Not.for.us.

[weathafella]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully we trend that a bit more amplified in AK/Bering

It seems to want to do that so it wouldn’t surprise me if that happened.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yeah the low heights are flushed out of AK but then the ridging doesn’t seem to build.   Hopefully that changes.

Because it’s a stubborn mofo. We’ll be fighting low heights in that region early and often. Just need to time it with transient ridges and some atl assistance imwo.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was one of my analogs....def some parallels with the big negative PDO and okay arctic.

We need the -NAO to show back up for the '70-'71 analog to hit harder....but the PAC def looks similar. '70-'71 didn't have a ridiuclously poleward Aleutian ridge.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We need the -NAO to show back up for the '70-'71 analog to hit harder....but the PAC def looks similar. '70-'71 didn't have a ridiuclously poleward Aleutian ridge.

 

 

Right....I think it will later in the season, but looks to be admittedly a bit less blocky than I had thought for December. Probably worse for the tri state region than us....Dec 1970 was one of the snowier months of December on record here, so it will def probably be somewhat less snowy than that this month with a more hostile arctic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....I think it will later in the season, but looks to be admittedly a bit less blocky than I had thought for December. Probably worse for the tri state region than us....Dec 1970 was one of the snowier months of December on record here, so it will def probably be somewhat less snowy than that this month with a more hostile arctic.

I think what I was right about is that we are still going to get a slew of modest to moderate SWFE this month and maybe some redevelopers....we aren't getting skunked because there is so much cold over Canada, and the PV is elongated onto our side of the globe....while it is stout, it is not a 2011 death star. The polar domain should be less hostile than 12/2007 and maybe a bit more hostile than 2008 or comparable.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....I think it will later in the season, but looks to be admittedly a bit less blocky than I had thought for December. Probably worse for the tri state region than us....Dec 1970 was one of the snowier months on record here, so it will def probably be somewhat less snowy with a more hostile arctic.

The funny thing is December 1970 is not memorable despite having a lot of snow and cold after about the 10th.   I remember watching Scwoegler’s map and it looked like the progs were seeing but we were mostly on the good side of the gradient.   Impulse after impulse...some bringing 6-10 which was about the ceiling.

[weatherwiz]

I think in order for us to get big changes in the long-term we need to see significant changes across the western Pacific and across Asia. As long as we continue to be in a positive East Asian Mountain torque regime we continue to see wave breaking just off the continent and when combined with enhanced convection/-OLR anomalies across the west-central Pacific this is driving a huge ridge across the central Pacific to west of Alaska with troughing across Alaska. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

The funny thing is December 1970 is not memorable despite having a lot of snow and cold after about the 10th.   I remember watching Scwoegler’s map and it looked like the progs were seeing but we were mostly on the good side of the gradient.   Impulse after impulse...some bringing 6-10 which was about the ceiling.

It didn’t have a blockbuster signature storm. But it was cold and active which led to prolific monthly totals and deep pack. 

Btw weeklies definitely look decent going into late Dec and January. They are agreeing with the EPS for now that mid-month is junk. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It didn’t have a blockbuster signature storm. But it was cold and active which led to prolific monthly totals and deep pack. 

Btw weeklies definitely look decent going into late Dec and January. They are agreeing with the EPS for now that mid-month is junk. 

I think one thing I should have hit harder in my outlook was the reprieve in the first half of Dec....I was honestly thinking that may take place more earlier than mid, but I inadvertently glossed over it. If I had to verbalize a concern now, it would be that my timeline may be a bit fast....ie favorable period taking place later in Dec and riding more in January than I had advertised.

But lets see what happens.