dryslot Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 4:23 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: That’s a better look. Expand The one on the 6th keeps cutting further west on modeling which looks to help the follow up one for more of a winter look where the gradient ends up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 4:25 PM, dryslot said: The one on the 6th keeps cutting further west on modeling which looks to help the follow up one for more of a winter look where the gradient ends up. Expand Yea, that next on the 6th is a lost cause. I will do a write up this wknd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 4:02 PM, CoastalWx said: What does he mean leafing out? It's solar winter and we had a fairly normal November. Expand His climate seems like Florida. He can run a fruit orchard in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 4:31 PM, ORH_wxman said: His climate seems like Florida. He can run a fruit orchard in the winter. Expand That restaurant near him can likely put that potted palm tree back out onto the sidewalk on Monday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 4:40 PM, NorEastermass128 said: That restaurant near him can likely put that potted palm tree back out onto the sidewalk on Monday. Expand The weird part is as Scott said...it wasn't a warm November there. I assume BDR is the closest site to him and they were actually a -1.7 departure for the month. But being close to the shore definitely makes for a much longer growing season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 4:23 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: GFS OP is an error with the very warm look of late....its totally at odds with tropical forcing, for which we have a very good consensus. The fairly mild interlude that we will have mid month belies the true overall tenor of this month. Expand MJO phase 6-7 for December is usually a decent look and it usually supports ridging in AK and not troughing. We'll see if that ridging trying to show up near EPO region mid-month becomes stronger as we get closer. Forecasts are for us to go from phase 6 to phase 7. Maybe scooter has some thoughts on the convection, but the two baseline December maps aren't bad....phase 7 does support some SE ridging but it's kind of weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Still damaging wind signal for Monday? @CoastalWx. @ORH_wxman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 4:45 PM, ORH_wxman said: MJO phase 6-7 for December is usually a decent look and it usually supports ridging in AK and not troughing. We'll see if that ridging trying to show up near EPO region mid-month becomes stronger as we get closer. Forecasts are for us to go from phase 6 to phase 7. Maybe scooter has some thoughts on the convection, but the two baseline December maps aren't bad....phase 7 does support some SE ridging but it's kind of weak. Expand I have this for phase 7/Dec/Nina 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 2:39 PM, CoastalWx said: I'm bracing for a shit stretch for awhile. Maybe next week works out...but I'd rather be where you are or especially Brian and points north. I guess the only thing I can see working out is later in the 11-15 day as we get more of a -EPO. Maybe that helps bleed in more low level cold, but otherwise that is a ridge on roids across the SE. Expand I tried to tell wolfie that last night but once he growled and locked his jaws…I couldn’t get him to let go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 Same idea...probably going to be some gradient and I would not expect any singularly huge events with that compressed flow. Fits with the idea from the seasonal outlook w respect to Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 4:49 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I tried to tell wolfie that last night but once he growled and locked his jaws…I couldn’t get him to let go. Expand No one denied a mild period mid month...it was you punting the month that was the source of dissent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 4:51 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: No one denied a mild period mid month...it was you punting the month that was the source of dissent. Expand I told him no snow for him and I for 3wks and he went wild. While the possible changes around dec20 would be nice, I doubt it happens so quickly that the xmas is snowy. I’m not punting the month but the punter is off the bench kicking into the net. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 Australian model is great for all of SNE....lol ICON is nice north of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 4:56 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I told him no snow for him and I for 3wks and he went wild. While the possible changes around dec20 would be nice, I doubt it happens so quickly that the xmas is snowy. I’m not punting the month but the punter is off the bench kicking into the net. Expand HAHA Got ya. I think we are good before xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 What Austrian model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 4:41 PM, ORH_wxman said: The weird part is as Scott said...it wasn't a warm November there. I assume BDR is the closest site to him and they were actually a -1.7 departure for the month. But being close to the shore definitely makes for a much longer growing season. Expand So much for Mowvember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 4:57 PM, Damage In Tolland said: What Austrian model? Expand Australian...ACCESS on F5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 4:00 PM, George001 said: I’m ready to panic about the long term winter outlook. I’m bailing on my winter forecast, based on the long term outlook with the polar vortex continuing to deepen into January I don’t see how we get over 70 inches of snow this winter, which is what I forecasted. Expand You should have kept your forecasts the way it is. Things can drastically change by January. But being so erratic you're not going to have the respect from people on the Forum. Just sayin in a friendly kind of way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 4:57 PM, Damage In Tolland said: What Austrian model? Expand The Elle Macpherson 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 weather.us has the aussie as well. I peeked at it last year and it didn't perform too well. Maybe they have their coriolis the wrong way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Grann Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 4:00 PM, George001 said: I’m ready to panic about the long term winter outlook. I’m bailing on my winter forecast, based on the long term outlook with the polar vortex continuing to deepen into January I don’t see how we get over 70 inches of snow this winter, which is what I forecasted. Expand Best way for you to forecast in the future is to take your gut feelings and go 180 degrees opposite. You may indeed wind up as one of the most accurate on the board.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 4:57 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: HAHA Got ya. I think we are good before xmas. Expand If we see the ridge building into AK as we head into mid month and it becomes more medium range goodies, then I’m all in. Nothing better than a cold and white xmas week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 5:02 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If we see the ridge building into AK as we head into mid month and it becomes more medium range goodies, then I’m all in. Nothing better than a cold and white xmas week. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Congrats SNE. 32.5F at home and iced in while it's corona and limes down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 5:09 PM, dendrite said: Congrats SNE. 32.5F at home and iced in while it's corona and limes down there. Expand 43.9 at home....no torch yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Despite the thread the needle event possibly for next week , the pattern doesn't look good for the foreseeable future. Teleconnections are awful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Lets go Ukie next week. Although GFS works for CNE and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 12:16 PM, dendrite said: http://www.newenglandwx.com/northfield-nh/cam.htm Expand Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 59 here with monkey's swinging through the oaks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 5:12 PM, MJO812 said: Despite the thread the needle event possibly for next week , the pattern doesn't look good for the foreseeable future. Teleconnections are awful Expand You can prob fold up the tent in NYC for a while....unless something lucky happens. It's going to be a gradient pattern....further north the better. Even SNE may struggle in this, but we'll see as we get closer to mid-month. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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