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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z NAM trying to make the clipper on Saturday more interesting. A lot of the SREFs did the same this run....still not much, but if that trend is real, then it wouldn't take much more to drop a couple of inches.

Yeah still watching that. Won't take much to throw some moisture into a fairly cold airmass.

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We need blocking, I hate the way the pattern looks on the European guidance long range. No blocking and a massive trough out west. Hopefully that changes soon, but things aren’t looking great for early December. I’d like to see signs of a pattern change on the models over the next couple of weeks though.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Right here . Just not going to fall for the 18z NAM head fake or the 12Z EPS COC tease of multiple Swfe. We’ve all measured dustings and very likely that will continue for quite some time. 

Time to lower the 30 yr normals from their ridiculous highs?

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z NAM trying to make the clipper on Saturday more interesting. A lot of the SREFs did the same this run....still not much, but if that trend is real, then it wouldn't take much more to drop a couple of inches.

It’s still pretty sheared out I thought… maybe I’m not looking at the right stuff 

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Kevin will be back on the badnwagon by Friday 12z at the latest. One of these next few cycles will start honing in on a threat. He will flip from dustings to 6-10" just like he flipped from "no snow through Xmas" to 4-8" for November 29th last week.

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s still pretty sheared out I thought… maybe I’m not looking at the right stuff 

It is, but it has decent warm air advection with it. You can see at 925 and 850, some warm air tries to move in on strong SW winds.......but yeah there isn’t much moisture. 

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Unless you are fortunate enough to have a perfect pattern with ideal placement of +PP, the route to a plentiful December in terms of snowfall for coastal SNE is positive AO/NAO with a plentiful supply of cold in Canada. Not to say there isn't risk involved with that, but there is more risk for the coast with early season coastals IMHO.

The 12/5/2003 events are not that common.

That's true even in Far Northern Connecticut. For years we would never expect any meaningful snow until Christmas time. So many bridge jumpers now...

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