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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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Seems more unclear than ever how things will break as we move into December.  In the meantime it’s cold and things are freezing up and there will at least be some snow in the air over the next week.  And the models will keep shifting around to find the next pattern after our somewhat persistent troughing  in the NE

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You said the same, exact thing last year. Your default la nina opinion.

And I was mostly right. I had a two week stretch of real winter in early Feb and basically nothing else. But I don’t have enough enso knowledge to have a default nina opinion, so…it’s the late fall EPO/PNA look that typically worries me where I have enough weenie experience telling me that will be a dominant feature prevalent throughout winter. Whether it is transient or not, it tends to be stubborn.

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It’s not an AK black hole. The problem is PNA tanks and no blocking. Yeah we had -PNAs before, but verbatim the SE ridge furnaces us. Just the orientation of it. No confluence to the north. But Canada will be very cold and should be a good snowpack there and into nrn tier of US. I’ve said this for awhile. Probably hostile until 12/15. Maybe we sneak snow events in, but I’m speaking the overall look. I don’t have confidence in the month as a whole, JMHO. 

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13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Winter doesn't start till after Christmas.  People expect sustained cold and snow way too early where people live.

Maybe for those that stick out into the ocean in se zones but the rest, winter has begun. We don’t expect sustained cold and snow but a good pattern would produce…and there is nothing good 12/10 and beyond, as of now.

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14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And I was mostly right. I had a two week stretch of real winter in early Feb and basically nothing else. But I don’t have enough enso knowledge to have a default nina opinion, so…it’s the late fall EPO/PNA look that typically worries me where I have enough weenie experience telling me that will be a dominant feature prevalent throughout winter. Whether it is transient or not, it tends to be stubborn.

One of those winters where 1 storm in December and that February gave us above average snowfall for the year! And a B- winter grade.

I agree what's showing on the ensembles looks bad for a while. Energy savings FTW.

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not an AK black hole. The problem is PNA tanks and no blocking. Yeah we had -PNAs before, but verbatim the SE ridge furnaces us. Just the orientation of it. No confluence to the north. But Canada will be very cold and should be a good snowpack there and into nrn tier of US. I’ve said this for awhile. Probably hostile until 12/15. Maybe we sneak snow events in, but I’m speaking the overall look. I don’t have confidence in the month as a whole, JMHO. 

When do we get this furnace? I want to play golf.

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not an AK black hole. The problem is PNA tanks and no blocking. Yeah we had -PNAs before, but verbatim the SE ridge furnaces us. Just the orientation of it. No confluence to the north. But Canada will be very cold and should be a good snowpack there and into nrn tier of US. I’ve said this for awhile. Probably hostile until 12/15. Maybe we sneak snow events in, but I’m speaking the overall look. I don’t have confidence in the month as a whole, JMHO. 

Maybe you see the annual Icing event

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11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

We could use it

i had just over 2" in Nov, but the ground is still soaked. i have wet areas in the yard that are usually only wet in late spring. the little streams have been running since July-very unusual. 38" since May 1 will do that i guess. if that drought monitor says drought anytime in the next 6 months, i might go crazy lol

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48 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And I was mostly right. I had a two week stretch of real winter in early Feb and basically nothing else. But I don’t have enough enso knowledge to have a default nina opinion, so…it’s the late fall EPO/PNA look that typically worries me where I have enough weenie experience telling me that will be a dominant feature prevalent throughout winter. Whether it is transient or not, it tends to be stubborn.

Qualify it however you want. It was a good winter. You were wrong. 

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33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Maybe for those that stick out into the ocean in se zones but the rest, winter has begun. We don’t expect sustained cold and snow but a good pattern would produce…and there is nothing good 12/10 and beyond, as of now.

He averages as much in December as you do.

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49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe I will be wrong,  but not worried yet...waaaay too early

Even in a somewhat hostile environment the next few weeks I still feel like we can get an SW to cut under us. That might not give everybody snow but I like the chances for a front ender giving some love to the pike north crew.

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