December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[weathafella]

0Z ensembles are pretty ugly.   Maybe some light at the end of the tunnel at the end of the runs but for now, expect doo doo especially 12/10 and beyond unless they’re wrong which is possible.

[moneypitmike]

How much rain does ORH average prior to 12/10? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

0Z ensembles are pretty ugly.   Maybe some light at the end of the tunnel at the end of the runs but for now, expect doo doo especially 12/10 and beyond unless they’re wrong which is possible.

We rain… and then the look gets even worse. Awesome.

[WinterWolf]

4 hours ago, weathafella said:

0Z ensembles are pretty ugly.   Maybe some light at the end of the tunnel at the end of the runs but for now, expect doo doo especially 12/10 and beyond unless they’re wrong which is possible.

They’ve been wrong for weeks lol. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Pray to grab something before 12/10 then close the shades rest of month. Unfavorable EPO/PNA/AO combo incoming AIT.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pray to grab something before 12/10 then close the shades rest of month. Unfavorable EPO/PNA combo incoming AIT.

It's not the rest of the month.

Wrong.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not the rest of the month.

Wrong.

GL getting rid of stubborn troughs over AK and the west that quickly. Maybe we sneak something later in the month but I’ll bet it against it down here. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

GL getting rid of stubborn troughs over AK and the west that quickly. Maybe we sneak something later in the month but I’ll bet it against it down here. 
 

You said the same, exact thing last year. Your default la nina opinion.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I agree lower heights near AK will be an issue this year, but it's not going to be a 2012 black hole. PNA will be variable. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe I will be wrong,  but not worried yet...waaaay too early

[mahk_webstah]

Seems more unclear than ever how things will break as we move into December.  In the meantime it’s cold and things are freezing up and there will at least be some snow in the air over the next week.  And the models will keep shifting around to find the next pattern after our somewhat persistent troughing  in the NE

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe I will be wrong,  but not worried yet...waaaay too early

Winter doesn't start till after Christmas.  People expect sustained cold and snow way too early where people live.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You said the same, exact thing last year. Your default la nina opinion.

And I was mostly right. I had a two week stretch of real winter in early Feb and basically nothing else. But I don’t have enough enso knowledge to have a default nina opinion, so…it’s the late fall EPO/PNA look that typically worries me where I have enough weenie experience telling me that will be a dominant feature prevalent throughout winter. Whether it is transient or not, it tends to be stubborn.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree lower heights near AK will be an issue this year, but it's not going to be a 2012 black hole. PNA will be variable. 

I’m not thinking black hole 2012 either, fwiw.

[CoastalWx]

It’s not an AK black hole. The problem is PNA tanks and no blocking. Yeah we had -PNAs before, but verbatim the SE ridge furnaces us. Just the orientation of it. No confluence to the north. But Canada will be very cold and should be a good snowpack there and into nrn tier of US. I’ve said this for awhile. Probably hostile until 12/15. Maybe we sneak snow events in, but I’m speaking the overall look. I don’t have confidence in the month as a whole, JMHO. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Winter doesn't start till after Christmas.  People expect sustained cold and snow way too early where people live.

Maybe for those that stick out into the ocean in se zones but the rest, winter has begun. We don’t expect sustained cold and snow but a good pattern would produce…and there is nothing good 12/10 and beyond, as of now.

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And I was mostly right. I had a two week stretch of real winter in early Feb and basically nothing else. But I don’t have enough enso knowledge to have a default nina opinion, so…it’s the late fall EPO/PNA look that typically worries me where I have enough weenie experience telling me that will be a dominant feature prevalent throughout winter. Whether it is transient or not, it tends to be stubborn.

One of those winters where 1 storm in December and that February gave us above average snowfall for the year! And a B- winter grade.

I agree what's showing on the ensembles looks bad for a while. Energy savings FTW.

[MJO812]

12/8 might be the first real threat 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

12/8 might be the first real threat 

Yeah although I’m less than 50/50 on it, it might be. More than any other threat up until then. Saturday could have flurries or a little -SN.

[kdxken]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not an AK black hole. The problem is PNA tanks and no blocking. Yeah we had -PNAs before, but verbatim the SE ridge furnaces us. Just the orientation of it. No confluence to the north. But Canada will be very cold and should be a good snowpack there and into nrn tier of US. I’ve said this for awhile. Probably hostile until 12/15. Maybe we sneak snow events in, but I’m speaking the overall look. I don’t have confidence in the month as a whole, JMHO. 

When do we get this furnace? I want to play golf.

[Modfan2]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not an AK black hole. The problem is PNA tanks and no blocking. Yeah we had -PNAs before, but verbatim the SE ridge furnaces us. Just the orientation of it. No confluence to the north. But Canada will be very cold and should be a good snowpack there and into nrn tier of US. I’ve said this for awhile. Probably hostile until 12/15. Maybe we sneak snow events in, but I’m speaking the overall look. I don’t have confidence in the month as a whole, JMHO. 

Maybe you see the annual Icing event

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

When do we get this furnace? I want to play golf.

Probably after next week. Maybe furnace is a little excessive, but a mild look.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Maybe you see the annual Icing event

Could be as early as next week up north. 

[SJonesWX]

11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

We could use it

i had just over 2" in Nov, but the ground is still soaked. i have wet areas in the yard that are usually only wet in late spring. the little streams have been running since July-very unusual. 38" since May 1 will do that i guess. if that drought monitor says drought anytime in the next 6 months, i might go crazy lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And I was mostly right. I had a two week stretch of real winter in early Feb and basically nothing else. But I don’t have enough enso knowledge to have a default nina opinion, so…it’s the late fall EPO/PNA look that typically worries me where I have enough weenie experience telling me that will be a dominant feature prevalent throughout winter. Whether it is transient or not, it tends to be stubborn.

Qualify it however you want. It was a good winter. You were wrong. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

12/8 might be the first real threat 

My guess is too early

[Lava Rock]

47 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Winter doesn't start till after Christmas.  People expect sustained cold and snow way too early where people live.

yeah, we need to get the grinch storm out of the way first then we can proceed to winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Maybe for those that stick out into the ocean in se zones but the rest, winter has begun. We don’t expect sustained cold and snow but a good pattern would produce…and there is nothing good 12/10 and beyond, as of now.

He averages as much in December as you do.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe I will be wrong,  but not worried yet...waaaay too early

Even in a somewhat hostile environment the next few weeks I still feel like we can get an SW to cut under us. That might not give everybody snow but I like the chances for a front ender giving some love to the pike north crew.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He averages as much in December as you do.

Dec is a winter month. Anyone who says it doesn’t start until after xmas must live in a coastal warm climate I guess.