December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas

[dryslot]

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Too bad the Pats aren't home next Monday night.

Mac passed the marginal cold test, Next will be a snow test (and not yesterdays flakes in the air)

[moneypitmike]

56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Prob will only be one event. Saturday or Mondays . When models show two close to each other, it usually morphs into 1. So plan on Sunday/ Sunday night .

I was thinking of the 'two systems in a short time' situation earlier today.  They so seldomly work out that way.  Give me the first of the two.  No Wimpy "I'll happily pay you on Tuesday if you buy me a hamburger today".

[WinterWolf]

40 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Or the first one can set up the 50/50 for the second a la Jan '15.

Lol yup.  And that Jan 15 first one was supposed to be it, cuz the models completely lost the big one a couple days before, and we figured it was gonzo. Until the night of it snowing(Friday late night) the Euro brought it back at 0z. 

[ORH_wxman]

EPS is a lot more bullish for Saturday than the OP and less bullish for Monday.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is a lot more bullish for Saturday than the OP and less bullish for Monday.

Yeah was not expecting the EPS to looks so different. Very little signal for something on Monday. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Yeah was not expecting the EPS to looks so different. Very little signal for something on Monday. 

Monday almost looks like just a FROPA on the EPS. Maybe a hint of a wave.

Saturday OTOH looked pretty good for a legit system on the ensembles:

 

[dryslot]

Wave spacing issues, I was going to post the ensemble map but Will already did, There is some fairly strong LP's in those members too unlike this past weekends.

[Hoth]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol yup.  And that Jan 15 first one was supposed to be it, cuz the models completely lost the big one a couple days before, and we figured it was gonzo. Until the night of it snowing(Friday late night) the Euro brought it back at 0z. 

Ha, I still remember waking up after the first sloppy storm and seeing the overnight Euro had come around and absolutely mauled us. Soon after, everything else fell into place. That was special.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Monday almost looks like just a FROPA on the EPS. Maybe a hint of a wave.

Saturday OTOH looked pretty good for a legit system on the ensembles:

 

12/4-5 has been special for decades.   I believe in my memory it began with 12/5/57 or close to it.

[Typhoon Tip]

My experience with systems spaced closely in fast flows like this is one or the other tends to become dominant.  Both by wave spacing arguments, but also feed-backs in the environment.

If the lead gets a little more potent it'll sweep the dynamics away so that might belay developing the 2nd, ( next Mon ). But if the 2nd evolves stronger, it'll tend to damp the first out more so. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

still, there are examples where two pops took place ...

In 1996 there were two storms 18 hours apart ... between last flakes of the first, 4- 9",  and then Jim Cantore almost getting struck by lightning in ORH thundersnow lol it was barely a day between the two.  It was early Dec that year, and both were flattish waves spaced closely but managed to get it done.

[Damage In Tolland]

34 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I was thinking of the 'two systems in a short time' situation earlier today.  They so seldomly work out that way.  Give me the first of the two.  No Wimpy "I'll happily pay you on Tuesday if you buy me a hamburger today".

We never see two systems like that back to back. The models always fade one out . In this case the main storm if there is one will likely be Sunday . Saturdays will vanish and Mondays will speed up 

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

12/4-5 has been special for decades.   I believe in my memory it began with 12/5/57 or close to it.

Yes over the years, The 12/5 date has produced over the years.

[moneypitmike]

I'll take Saturday if we can push it back 6 hours.....I land at BOS at 2:00pm

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’d rather it be Saturday, mainly because it’s closer. I tend to agree with the consensus that it’s unlikely both end up being legit threats

[weathafella]

Just now, dryslot said:

Yes over the years, The 12/5 date has produced over the years.

I got early December seared into my memory growing up with systems in 1957, 1958, and the big daddy in 1960.  I just presumed it was climo back then as a boy growing up during a great stretch.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I'll take Saturday if we can push it back 6 hours.....I land at BOS at 2:00pm

“Mr mpm we’ve canceled flights to Boston Saturday.  We will allow you to fly Friday with no change in fare”

[CoastalWx]

Weeklies and Ensembles both show that period maybe 10 days centered near mid month could be ugly, but looks better near Christmas. But take it fwiw. Even week 2 changes were huge from the previous run.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

still, there are examples where two pops took place ...

In 1996 there were two storms 18 hours apart ... between last flakes of the first, 4- 9",  and then Jim Cantore almost getting struck by lightning in ORH thundersnow lol it was barely a day between the two.  It was early Dec that year, and both were flattish waves spaced closely but managed to get it done.

Happened in April 1996 too....something about that year 1996, lol....and Dec 19-20, 2008 and Dec 21, 2008. The twin Feb 1994 storms as well.

[dryslot]

Not trying to be a dick here, But has the weeklies even come close to what they have been printing out over the last month or so in week 1 or 2 even 3?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not trying to be a dick here, But has the weeklies even have come close to what they have been printing out over the last month or so in week 1 or 2?

Well ensembles and weeklies are sort of in agreement. You can see how week 3 could be correct based on the end of the EPS. Maybe it's only a few days where it gets dicey...who knows. 

[weathafella]

Also GEFS are a lot more optimistic.  In fact they’re doubling down run to run.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not trying to be a dick here, But has the weeklies even come close to what they have been printing out over the last month or so in week 1 or 2 even 3?

LR guidance has been really bad since about mid November. That said, there's some building consensus on a period of mild weather mid-month. Not set in stone though....GEFS have been kind of stubborn.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well ensembles and weeklies are sort of in agreement. You can see how week 3 could be correct based on the end of the EPS. Maybe it's only a few days where it gets dicey...who knows. 

I think i would still buy more of what the ensembles have but if they are close to matching up then the weeklies could be closer to being right this go round provided the EPS is even right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Second week of December fits my timeline for the month...

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

LR guidance has been really bad since about mid November. That said, there's some building consensus on a period of mild weather mid-month. Not set in stone though....GEFS have been kind of stubborn.

It seems like they were advertising ongoing torch for the latter part of Nov going into Dec but that is not the case.

[Go Kart Mozart]

29 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Ha, I still remember waking up after the first sloppy storm and seeing the overnight Euro had come around and absolutely mauled us. Soon after, everything else fell into place. That was special.

In Hamden?  How much did you get?

[CoastalWx]

Yeah GEFS are more favorable. Just looked. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

In Hamden?  How much did you get?

He was in Boston that winter (Cambridge per memory).

[weathafella]

The thing about winter is you just don’t know what is going to play out.   So today anything is possible including epicosity or total ratter.