dendrite Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 On 11/23/2021 at 1:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: The other day Judah was trying to tell me that December was going to be at least +3 in the NE because, like George, he is hyperventilating over the PV not doing back flips. I simply replied, "no it isn't". lol Expand We've got new climo normals as well. CON gained 1.5F in Dec so a +3.0F last year becomes a +1.5F this year...which is in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 On 11/23/2021 at 5:31 PM, dendrite said: We've got new climo normals as well. CON gained 1.5F in Dec so a +3.0F last year becomes a +1.5F this year...which is in your favor. Expand I hadn't even thought of that...good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Gefs looks better for the 1st week than it did days ago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 The Boys in the Boat is a tremendous book about the University of Washington crew team that represented us at the Berlin Olympics of 1936. The author writes about the crippling blizzards that were hitting Seattle at that time. I was a bit incredulous, as I haven't seen that in my years as a weather nerd...but we might see that in early December? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 On 11/23/2021 at 5:39 PM, MJO812 said: Gefs looks better for the 1st week than it did days ago. Expand GEFS actually cancels any torch at all....just reloads the cold before the mild air ever has a chance to make it into New England. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Euro also has alittle more snow at 228 hrs when another clippers drops down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 On 11/23/2021 at 6:11 PM, ORH_wxman said: GEFS actually cancels any torch at all....just reloads the cold before the mild air ever has a chance to make it into New England. Expand EPS basically cancelled it too...maybe a brief torch around D10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Nice negative epo showing up on the eps mid to long range. This run is alot colder than it showed 24 hours ago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Snowy and cold . Currie and Ive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Probably all goes away now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2021 Author Share Posted November 24, 2021 On 11/23/2021 at 9:32 PM, MJO812 said: Expand That 8-14 day looks just like my Dec map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Gfs looks great for the 1st week of December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Another shortwave behind December 5. What an active run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Now this is a weenie run. Total GFS snowfall up to December 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2021 Author Share Posted November 24, 2021 GFS ensemble 500mb trends for Sunday PM...stronger ridging towards Greenland, western ridge axis shifting slightly farther west & the "50/50 low" lifting out a bit quicker give the shortwave room to breathe near the Northeast US. Perhaps some clipper-gone-coast potential here... https://t.co/udm7Sl4tIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2021 Author Share Posted November 24, 2021 @snowman19Why are you such an ass? Tagging perfectly viable posts and adding jack shit to the discussion. Give it a rest 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 On 11/24/2021 at 5:43 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: @snowman19Why are you such an ass? Tagging perfectly viable posts and adding jack shit to the discussion. Give it a rest Expand He is 5 posted He knows his stuff but he trolls all the time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 First week of December on the gefs has a huge trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 EPS goes to crap at the end of the run. Hope that is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 On 11/24/2021 at 11:30 AM, CoastalWx said: EPS goes to crap at the end of the run. Hope that is wrong. Expand Why do we even look at any models over 300 hours? I'm guilty of it but it's going to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 On 11/24/2021 at 11:46 AM, MJO812 said: Why do we even look at any models over 300 hours? I'm guilty of it but it's going to change. Expand It’s an ensemble and a 500mb look. That’s different then looking at it from a deterministic point of view like finding low pressure giving you snow. It’s basically a weenie lobe near AK that went wild, but it’s possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 GEFS similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 On 11/24/2021 at 11:50 AM, CoastalWx said: GEFS similar. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 12z EPS has been getting Mets all excited for a deep winter December and then the 00z runs has the Mets hot for torcher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 On 11/24/2021 at 11:58 AM, Damage In Tolland said: 12z EPS has been getting Mets all excited for a deep winter December and then the 00z runs has the Mets hot for torcher Expand I called it. You did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 On 11/23/2021 at 9:26 PM, CoastalWx said: Probably all goes away now. Expand AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 On 11/24/2021 at 11:30 AM, CoastalWx said: EPS goes to crap at the end of the run. Hope that is wrong. Expand Debra to the max. BN heights BN 850. Cold feed from Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 On 11/24/2021 at 12:01 PM, Ginx snewx said: Debra to the max. BN heights BN 850. Cold feed from Canada Expand Dude, that will be flushed out quicker than your poop after mama’s sauce and meatballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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