Iceresistance Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Mr. Kevin said: We want all models on board to be more believable lol. I think euro was at one point. Last winter it took 6-8 weeks for it to happen but it was bad in February lol Yes, the GFS was almost SPOT ON! But the Euro wanted to have none of it until it was too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 SSW confirmed by the models, Cold wave will now be expected between Christmas Week & New Years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: SSW confirmed by the models, Cold wave will now be expected between Christmas Week & New Years In another forum, they are saying this split will be extremely brief, so dont get too hung up in it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: In another forum, they are saying this split will be extremely brief, so dont get too hung up in it yet. The GEFS has a brief split, but that destabilizes the PV even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 The +EPO is refusing to go away, the cold wave may never happen . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The +EPO is refusing to go away, the cold wave may never happen . . . Like I mentioned, dont get excited when you see cold weather forecast because in this pattern, it's very transitory. If it happens. Just hope for one cold shot or possibly two at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The +EPO is refusing to go away, the cold wave may never happen . . . The month never looked that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The month never looked that cold. The Models have severely underestimated the +EPO, there was models hinting a cold wave in long range but the ++EPO would not let it even happen, don't count out the end of December yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The Models have severely underestimated the +EPO, there was models hinting a cold wave in long range but the ++EPO would not let it even happen, don't count out the end of December yet. Second half of December had always looked better than the first to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Second half of December had always looked better than the first to me. That's the new area of the possible Cold Wave for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The month never looked that cold. Many of us winter enthusiasts don't care whether December was forecasted a certain way. We just want December to be, you know, wintry...like it should be. The outcome is all that matters. The lack of snowfall and snow cover east of the Mississippi up to this point in the season is shocking...and it looks to only get worse over the next couple of weeks. Looking at ensemble progs, it's even possible that there will be close to zero snow cover in the entire Lower 48 east of the Mississippi on the winter solstice...when it's supposed to be deep winter. It's unacceptable and frustrating beyond belief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Many of us winter enthusiasts don't care whether December was forecasted a certain way. We just want December to be, you know, wintry...like it should be. The outcome is all that matters. The lack of snowfall and snow cover east of the Mississippi up to this point in the season is shocking...and it looks to only get worse over the next couple of weeks. Looking at ensemble progs, it's even possible that there will be close to zero snow cover in the entire Lower 48 east of the Mississippi on the winter solstice...when it's supposed to be deep winter. It's unacceptable and frustrating beyond belief. The +EPO is not letting the snow try to fall east of the Mississippi, I've seen this case before, December 1990 is a strong analog. Wait until the 2nd half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: Many of us winter enthusiasts don't care whether December was forecasted a certain way. We just want December to be, you know, wintry...like it should be. The outcome is all that matters. The lack of snowfall and snow cover east of the Mississippi up to this point in the season is shocking...and it looks to only get worse over the next couple of weeks. Looking at ensemble progs, it's even possible that there will be close to zero snow cover in the entire Lower 48 east of the Mississippi on the winter solstice...when it's supposed to be deep winter. It's unacceptable and frustrating beyond belief. I understand the frustration, but the winter solstice is not deep winter...its near the onset of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 This is the 2nd run in a row from the GFS to feature this at around Christmas Week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 3 hours ago, Iceresistance said: The +EPO is not letting the snow try to fall east of the Mississippi, I've seen this case before, December 1990 is a strong analog. Wait until the 2nd half of the month. The thing is this not the only December its been like this. Last December was like this too. Also the year before that one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 I understand the frustration, but the winter solstice is not deep winter...its near the onset of the season.beavis lives in a world of his own.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 11 hours ago, Iceresistance said: This is the 2nd run in a row from the GFS to feature this at around Christmas Week Been a trend this year to have a fairly strong PV that is elongated onto our side of the globe. Not a pretty pattern, but it can get it done...kind if like the Pats' win tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 18 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Many of us winter enthusiasts don't care whether December was forecasted a certain way. We just want December to be, you know, wintry...like it should be. The outcome is all that matters. The lack of snowfall and snow cover east of the Mississippi up to this point in the season is shocking...and it looks to only get worse over the next couple of weeks. Looking at ensemble progs, it's even possible that there will be close to zero snow cover in the entire Lower 48 east of the Mississippi on the winter solstice...when it's supposed to be deep winter. It's unacceptable and frustrating beyond belief. Welcome to our new climate change related paradigm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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