Iceresistance Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 The 12z GEFS has showed this at the end of the run: Greenland & Alaska Blocks are really strong, & it will go the Central & Southern Plains if there is a East Coast Block like what happened in February 2021 The GEFS has been showing something like this lately, but not the arctic buildup into a cold wave in good detail until now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 All but one model (12z CMC) is in agreement for a blast of Cold Air in Early December, the Euro is colder faster than the GFS. The 12z GEFS is showing a loose signal of snow in the Southern Plains from December 5th to December 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 CFS model is very consistent with the December Cold Wave Round #2 (And maybe #3) at around Christmas Week, not a very good timing for my Christmas trip plans though . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 14 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: CFS model is very consistent with the December Cold Wave Round #2 (And maybe #3) at around Christmas Week, not a very good timing for my Christmas trip plans though . . . We havent had round 1 yet in December lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: We havent had round 1 yet in December lol Round #1 is in Early December right now, I forgot to say that there is strong model consistency on the Early December Cold Wave (Round #1) here, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 18 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Round #1 is in Early December right now, I forgot to say that there is strong model consistency on the Early December Cold Wave (Round #1) here, LOL Ok gotcha. I dont believe anything until its 5 days out, sometimes less than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 Just now, Mr. Kevin said: Ok gotcha. I dont believe anything until its 5 days out, sometimes less than that Or unless there is extreme model consistency & agreement up to 14 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 These 1060+ MB Highs are not to be messed around at all on the 6z GFS! 1067 MB over Western Canada & 1060 MB over Montana at the same time! Another 1059 MB over Montana Powerful Greenland & Alaska Blocks will also cause multiple rounds of Cold Waves in December Really Cold Temperatures 3 Big Winter Storms to boot as well 24-Hour Kuchera Snowfall Totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 looks like a warm December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 34 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: looks like a warm December. I'm not sure about that . . . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 It does look like on the 6z GFS ensembles at 384, we are getting ready for -NAO, and maybe -EPO, cold blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: It does look like on the 6z GFS ensembles at 384, we are getting ready for -NAO, and maybe -EPO, cold blast. The AO also must be Negative for this to work as well. And the 12z GFS is surging the Cold air faster compared to the 6z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 End of the 12z GFS is February 2021 all over again . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwxtype Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 On 11/26/2021 at 11:53 AM, Iceresistance said: The AO also must be Negative for this to work as well. And the 12z GFS is surging the Cold air faster compared to the 6z run. I think that OK or nearby states could be looking at a possible winter storm by the 12th of Dec. You have arctic air moving down into the Midwest with the southwest wind at 850 mb. Maybe even some ice. What do you think ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, pgwxtype said: I think that OK or nearby states could be looking at a possible winter storm by the 12th of Dec. You have arctic air moving down into the Midwest with the southwest wind at 850 mb. Maybe even some ice. What do you think ? The end of the 12z GFS has a Sleet Storm for most of Oklahoma. However, it's too far out to be 100% sure with the EPO being way more Positive than expected & it's 2 weeks out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwxtype Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: The end of the 12z GFS has a Sleet Storm for most of Oklahoma. However, it's too far out to be 100% sure with the EPO being way more Positive than expected & it's 2 weeks out as well. OK, I agree with you that forecasting 2 weeks out is not dependable. For the forecast to pan out, the Arctic high will have to build rapidly, and move southward as the model predicts. We will see how this situation evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 28, 2021 Author Share Posted November 28, 2021 Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 16 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Uh oh Looks interesting. He said in his video that it is a small one now,but not that well defined signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 29, 2021 Author Share Posted November 29, 2021 EPO is STILL being very Positive right now, the models are underestimating on how long it's lasting, even though I'm still predicting a cold blast sometime in December though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 On 11/26/2021 at 11:36 AM, StormchaserChuck! said: It does look like on the 6z GFS ensembles at 384, we are getting ready for -NAO, and maybe -EPO, cold blast. Maybe we'll get something around Christmas (refering to 12z GFS LR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 29, 2021 Author Share Posted November 29, 2021 Oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 Most models are picking up on a Stratwarm that will cause the PV to become unstable & possibly produce a cold wave by around Christmas week into New Years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 This is very interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 It was 69F in Chicago on 12/29/1984...then 3 weeks later it dropped to -27 (all-time record low) on 1/20/1985. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: It was 69F in Chicago on 12/29/1984...then 3 weeks later it dropped to -27 (all-time record low) on 1/20/1985. This shows how fast things can change within a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: This shows how fast things can change within a month. We we want to see some type of SSW or split just to have any chance of cold weather since the Pacific is in bad shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: We we want to see some type of SSW or split just to have any chance of cold weather since the Pacific is in bad shape A SSW combined with a split could be really interesting, there are strong analogs for this in December 1984 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: A SSW combined with a split could be really interesting, there are strong analogs for this in December 1984 If we can benefit cold then yes I agree but if it goes overseas, we out of luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: If we can benefit cold then yes I agree but if it goes overseas, we out of luck The SSW appears to be stretching from Eastern Siberia to Central Canada, both the GFS & GEFS are showing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The SSW appears to be stretching from Eastern Siberia to Central Canada, both the GFS & GEFS are showing this We want all models on board to be more believable lol. I think euro was at one point. Last winter it took 6-8 weeks for it to happen but it was bad in February lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now