Winter 2021/22 December Thread

[Carvers Gap]

If you want a redux of last year's sever Arctic outbreak in the nation's midsection, that is it.  -61F air(not departures, but 2m surface temps) are in NA for that run of the GFS.  Basically, the cold in northern Russia rotates over the pole and is in a southerly trajectory over NA late in the run.  Impressive.

[iluvsnow]

Pardon my barging into your sub-forum from up north....but thought I would impart info on just how cold that Russian air is currently. These figures from today are the coldest I have seen in many a year.....especially for so early in the season. If any of this heads our way....better order a few more cords of wood.

 

t

 

Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 12/08/2021 at 18:00 UTC

No.	Location	Station ID	Amount
1	Delyankir (Russia)	24691	-77.8°F
2	Ojmjakon (Russia)	24688	-74.0°F
3	Nera (Russia)	24585	-67.9°F
4	Yurty (Russia)	24588	-67.0°F
5	Agayakan (Russia)	24684	-64.8°F
6	Iema (Russia)	24477	-63.0°F
7	Verhojansk (Russia)	24266	-62.7°F
8	Ekyuchchyu (Russia)	24361	-61.2°F
9	Segen-Kyuel' (Russia)	24661	-60.9°F
10	Ust'- Moma (Russia)	24382	-60.2°F
11	Batagaj (Russia)	24263	-57.8°F
12	Batamaj (Russia)	24656	-56.6°F
13	Verhoyanskij Perevoz (Russia)	24668	-56.4°F
14	Tugoncani (Russia)	23589	-56.2°F
15	Baimka-Baimra (Russia)	25335	-55.7°F
Script courtesy of  Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogimet

[Kentucky]

 

[Carvers Gap]

I think if I was in Alaska right now, I would be making sure I had things ultra winterized - more so than normal for there.

[nrgjeff]

Pro Tip: Don't live in Siberia. Weather is arguably worse than the political climate.

MJO wants to make progress. Oop! Another Invest in the West Pac. How will it mess up the progression and keep SER in place?

Confession: I am really salty because we wanted to ski NC right before Christmas. Climatologically dumb move, but it sounded fun while kids on break and before the Christmas crowds.

Hope in the 11-15 day has a little pattern recognition help, all else equal. That kind of cold likes to ooze southeast. We'll see.

[Mr. Kevin]

3 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Pro Tip: Don't live in Siberia. Weather is arguably worse than the political climate.

MJO wants to make progress. Oop! Another Invest in the West Pac. How will it mess up the progression and keep SER in place?

Confession: I am really salty because we have a non-refundable VRBO right before Christmas for NC skiing. Climatologically dumb move, but it sounded fun before the Christmas crowds.

Hope in the 11-15 day has a little pattern recognition help, all else equal. That kind of cold likes to ooze southeast. We'll see.

I believe it will be later rather than sooner jeff for a switch to cold. Probably around or just after Christmas. -60 below zero is too cold and with no snowpack, doubt it ends up that way

[Carvers Gap]

I like the pro tips.  Let’s keep those coming!  LOL.

Hate to hear about the ski trip.  
 

Dr No visited the UT three point line last night in NYC.  Have never seen anything like it.  

 

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Pro Tip: Don't live in Siberia. Weather is arguably worse than the political climate.

MJO wants to make progress. Oop! Another Invest in the West Pac. How will it mess up the progression and keep SER in place?

Confession: I am really salty because we wanted to ski NC right before Christmas. Climatologically dumb move, but it sounded fun while kids on break and before the Christmas crowds.

Hope in the 11-15 day has a little pattern recognition help, all else equal. That kind of cold likes to ooze southeast. We'll see.

Lol alright alright. 

[Carvers Gap]

The invest is a thorn for sure!

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS has found the -NAO again after d10.  It is pronounced.

[PowellVolz]

 
Dr No visited the UT three point line last night in NYC.  Have never seen anything like it.  

 

That was the worst basketball I’ve ever witnessed. To top it off, James getting sniped while going in for a dunk pretty much summed up our night.


.

[Carvers Gap]

Probably should be in banter since it is so far out there, but wow. 

[PowellVolz]

Probably should be in banter since it is so far out there, but wow. 

Good grief


.

[Carvers Gap]

FTR, the surface is cold in that shot.  Not sure it could be anything but cold.  Might be the biggest NAO I have ever seen on modeling.  If anything, goodbye strat!!!!

[Carvers Gap]

@Holston_River_Rambler, the 10mb anomaly at that timeframe is off the charts.  LOL.  Literally out of colors on WxBell.

[Carvers Gap]

And out of colors on the 500mb map as well for the NAO.  That would be an extreme run.  Huge grains of salt.  We all know the drill.  Fun though.

[Carvers Gap]

Just because we are in a boring pattern at the moment.  Normally, I would never post a map this far out, but it is at least worth some fun.  And if we can't have fun, what in the world are we doing here, right?  This is truly a fantasy land -NAO.  Perfectly positioned.  

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just because we are in a boring pattern at the moment.  Normally, I would never post a map this far out, but it is at least worth some fun.  And if we can't have fun, what in the world are we doing here, right?  This is truly a fantasy land -NAO.  Perfectly positioned.  

Yeah and a lot of people won't understand the connection from here to there is important for the NAO to pop like that. The cold up in Siberia would for sure rotate down or it should rotate down.  Fun to look at for sure. I just hope the cold is on our side.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah and a lot of people won't understand the connection from here to there is important for the NAO to pop like that. The cold up in Siberia would for sure rotate down or it should rotate down.  Fun to look at for sure. I just hope the cold is on our side.

Personally I suspect the GFS is slightly too quick in breaking down that big ridge as it is formidable.  I like the 18z CFSv2 this evening.  Reasonable look and makes sense.  That said, if an NAO is developing it is going to be tough to model at this range.  IMHO, getting the NAO right is still a tough feature for computer models to get right at LR.

[John1122]

Not in any way saying this will repeat but weak Nina 1984 saw November start warm, then turn really cold late month. Same thing happened this year. November was -2.6 here in 1984, -3.1 here this year. December 1984 had a few chilly days around the 8th, with some light snow, then it torched and finished +7 for the month.  There was a little light snow and chilly temps today and it's supposed to get really reallywarm the next couple of weeks. The CFS is showing what would be below 0 cold for the valley in January. 99.9 percent sure it's a coincidence but patterns repeat even if extremes don't.

[Carvers Gap]

Just tagging on to what John is saying.   Agree with John in saying this is not a forecast, but the CPC has '84 placed in both the 6-10 and 8-14 twice each.  CFS has a similar outcome, before warming back up.  Again, not saying that will happen as that is THE benchmark winter for extreme cold in NE TN, but we can still look at similarities.  There are some warm winter analogs in that CPC analog package as well.   Almost seems as if we are heading for one extreme or the other or both.

Personally, I think it is going to be tough to beat down that SER for any length of time.  However, it would not surprise me to some extreme swings as that SER wave is beaten down(before bouncing back).  There is wicked cold waiting in the wings in Canada.  When the SER relaxes, the push of Arctic air would likely make it through almost all of the forum area and hold for a few days.

Check out the end of the 6z GFS run both at the surface(temps) and at 500 in the LR.   Very similar to the CFS.  The CFS has been bouncing around between ridge and trough for eastern NA.  I suspect the GFS is in a hurry, but the CMC was pretty close in its run.  For now the GFS is on its own, but cold late in the run.  It is going to need some support before I give it any weight. If it was January, I would take the Euro and run(still might).  But I trust the Euro only slightly more than the GFS until the winter pattern settles in.  Then, the Euro is the "go to" for me.

Really nothing new today from my perspective.  Lots of very cold and very warm temps on the map.  If forced to make a call, I would say that bitterly col air will almost certainly plunges into the western Prairies of the Dakotas, Canada, and Montana. The  wildcard is whether it can find its way eastward.  I think there are two windows to watch - one around Christmas and the other during the first week of January.  Neither is a certainty, but I suspect we see 1-2 trough amplifications in the East where the cold rushes eastward behind a cutter.  Our way to score some snow at that point would be to have something develop on the trailing edge or to have something phase on the Arctic front.  Then, after the cold surges east the stand wave SER quickly pushes back.  Just a guess, but that is my thinking.

Again, lots of extreme temps(warm and cold) on that map.  Severe wx might be a concern also with the mixture of those two air masses a near certainty somewhere over the Lower 48.  

Sorry, long post which didn't say a whole lot.  

Huge grains of salt as the pattern is likely base warm with cold intrusions.   Just trying to find windows for winter wx.

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the link to the CPC analogs.   It will change each day.

[nrgjeff]

I'll take the bait. Bored enough to kick around ancient analogs. January 1985 was the freezer of record here.

Fortunately a method to deliver such cold is climatologically extinct. Snowcover can barely get south of the Canadian border anymore. In the 1980s snow would cover the ground points north, keeping the cold air very cold. Bare ground now allows rapid modification into the South.

Even January 2014 would be bad enough. Heat pump bill Jan. 2014 was 2X any hot AC month. Still, power price is less volatile than that of natural gas, so the heat pump is good most winters.

Yeah @Mr. Kevin later rather than sooner might be a good call for cold. 2023 maybe?

[Carvers Gap]

Man, you know I am old when I lived through an ancient analog.  LOL.   Oddly that winter was a weird deal where the polar vortex was trapped and when several deltas further south than was normal.  Can you imagine the, "Polar vortex!  Polar vortex!" talk if we had had social media back then.  The PV(or at least a piece of the PV) sagged into E TN.  Not sure I would say extinct, but would agree that is a rare, rare occurrence - even for then.  2017-18 is probably more reasonable in today's climate, and the rivers froze every bit as solid here as they did then.  The 84-85 winter was not overly cold for most of that winter - was super warm immediately following and not a soul complained about those warm temps either.  It was those crazy departures during those couple of weeks January that made it a cold winter.   Northwest flow events were spectacular during that time frame.   Man, we went to a crap ton of Saturday school to make up for those weeks.  What is crazy is that many of the winters of the 80s were much warmer than the 70s, and progressively so.  Having grown up as a grade schooler during the 70s in Knoxville, I am forever jaded to what "normal" winter should be like.  It snowed often.  By the late 80s, winters at TRI had flipped quite warm.  Anyone want to take a guess at what also flipped then?  The much talked about AMO.  I think when the AMO flips back, those cold and snow intrusions will likely occur again but w/ 21st century climo style.

The snowy benchmark winters of my lifetime (that stand out to me):

84-85

14-15

95-96 (lived in Knoxville at the time...TRI folks would rank this year second)

A couple of years after 1975 

92-93(blizzard)

93-94

09-10

So every decade has memorable snow and cold for me except for the one we just entered....Two events that I doubt that I ever see again in my lifetime are the Blizzard of '93 and the cold of January 84-85.   

So while we are reminiscing about the days of old.  You all know that I like the thunder in the mountains rule of thumb, right?  BTW it worked again this week.  Here is another....I have heard this old tale told many times.  Old timers talk about trees exploding when it gets cold as well.  Now, personally I think that is more likely that a tree falls during extreme cold and gets busted up pretty good.  However, I had a biology teacher who spoke that like the truth in high school.

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z CFSv2 still holding onto a colder week after Christmas and maybe also the first week of January before likely reverting back to a western trough by the second week of January.  

[Mr. Kevin]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Man, you know I am old when I lived through an ancient analog.  LOL.   Oddly that winter was a weird deal where the polar vortex was trapped and when several deltas further south than was normal.  Can you imagine the, "Polar vortex!  Polar vortex!" talk if we had had social media back then.  The PV(or at least a piece of the PV) sagged into E TN.  Not sure I would say extinct, but would agree that is a rare, rare occurrence - even for then.  2017-18 is probably more reasonable in today's climate, and the rivers froze every bit as solid here as they did then.  The 84-85 winter was not overly cold for most of that winter - was super warm immediately following and not a soul complained about those warm temps either.  It was those crazy departures during those couple of weeks January that made it a cold winter.   Northwest flow events were spectacular during that time frame.   Man, we went to a crap ton of Saturday school to make up for those weeks.  What is crazy is that many of the winters of the 80s were much warmer than the 70s, and progressively so.  Having grown up as a grade schooler during the 70s in Knoxville, I am forever jaded to what "normal" winter should be like.  It snowed often.  By the late 80s, winters at TRI had flipped quite warm.  Anyone want to take a guess at what also flipped then?  The much talked about AMO.  I think when the AMO flips back, those cold and snow intrusions will likely occur again but w/ 21st century climo style.

The snowy benchmark winters of my lifetime (that stand out to me):

84-85

14-15

95-96 (lived in Knoxville at the time...TRI folks would rank this year second)

A couple of years after 1975 

92-93(blizzard)

93-94

09-10

So every decade has memorable snow and cold for me except for the one we just entered....Two events that I doubt that I ever see again in my lifetime are the Blizzard of '93 and the cold of January 84-85.   

So while we are reminiscing about the days of old.  You all know that I like the thunder in the mountains rule of thumb, right?  BTW it worked again this week.  Here is another....I have heard this old tale told many times.  Old timers talk about trees exploding when it gets cold as well.  Now, personally I think that is more likely that a tree falls during extreme cold and gets busted up pretty good.  However, I had a biology teacher who spoke that like the truth in high school.

Suprised you left out 13-14 winter. It was unreal cold dude! Alot colder than 14-15 winter. Not even close in reality. Feb made 14 15 winter cold. It was cold from November to April in 13 14. Nonstop actually. Let's hope for a few weeks of cold weather here.

[Daniel Boone]

Late '70's Winters were tops for me. Pretty much wall to wall cold and snowcover ( 76-77' 77-78)for 2+ Months solid. 78-79 , got going late but produced solid Jan. to early March.

   84-85 saw morning low of -27 a daily high of -4 on heels of a 7" snowfall from Arctic Fropa. A unpredicted short duration Blizzard Feb. 12, of which 15" snow fell in 6 hours with 4-6' drifts ! That AFTER over 2" rain .

   Didn't get to finish. Called back at Dr office.

      As far as cold. Dec. 89.

    95-96...low of -21 Hi, -4 in Pennington gap. That follwed 10" Feb. 4 Snowfall.

     

[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Suprised you left out 13-14 winter. It was unreal cold dude! Alot colder than 14-15 winter. Not even close in reality. Feb made 14 15 winter cold. It was cold from November to April in 13 14. Nonstop actually. Let's hope for a few weeks of cold weather here.

Two words...NE TN.  Location matters.  A lot of folks outside of TRI won't think about 14-15, even on the Plateau.  I probably had almost 30" of snow here in January and February alone - and that is in Kingsport which is less snowy than the other TRI.   We score a bit differently than the rest of the forum area.  SE KY and SW VA folks can relate to the differences of the micro climates.  Kingsport does not do well with NW flow events(Bristol and JC do well), but does very well with events along the Atlantic provide we can get under a deformation band west of the Apps.  Usually when it is colder in western areas of the forum, it is often warmer here.  Last winter was an extreme example.  Memphis got hammered for days.  We saw very little.  

[Carvers Gap]

Meanwhile the 12z GFS is pretty much bringing it this run.  What a block.

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS basically splits the SPV and likely a part of the TPV right around Dec19th.  Part of it heads south into the Lower 48.  Very likely anything after that is in-correct, but a wild, wild run.