Winter 2021/22 December Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Here are the d10-14 analog packages. Some interesting ones in there.  Beware, this graphic might change with each update.  There are extreme winter analogs (warm and cold) in that package.  The best and worst winters I have experience are found in that analog package.   

[Carvers Gap]

Here are the December composites of PSU's Nina maps.  I haven't taken into account which were second year Ninas.

[Carvers Gap]

Notice the the three air masses(cold and warm).  Actually the December analog package looks similar to our November which we just had.  Also, notice the ridge near Scandanavia - as fickle an analog as it may be.  Current differences would have nearly opposite 500 features over NA and Greenland.  Either we have just left this configuration or we may be headed there.  Below is the 18z CFSv2 for the last part of December and first part of January.  Not exact but close to the analog maps above.  

[John1122]

GFS and Canadian are back on the possible rain to snow event heading into next weekend. GFS is Plateau and East Tennessee based. Much more widespread across the state on the Canadian. 

See if the Euro comes back on board too. 

[Carvers Gap]

John pretty well covered the first potential winter event next weekend which will likely precede an underdetermined period of warmth which follows.  The EPS certainly looks like it would kick the trough eastward(if it continue?) late in its run as AN heights move into the GOA.  Just to show that we aren't talking out of our minds.  This is what the CFSv2 has this morning after a similar set-up (to the EPS) on it.  Will be interesting to see which fork in the road modeling eventually takes.  I do my best not to talk in absolutes but it can happen.  So for now, just presenting two options.  The warm option has been well documented.  However, I do not think it is a given right now that things turn warm and stay warm through the core of winter.  I certainly don't discount that, but certainly can see that the potential for other scenarios exist.  Again, my overall winter forecast ideas are warm with January and February being the warmest month.  My main contention is that cold(possibly severe at times) will be embedded within those warm means similar to 17-18.   IF(stress IF) the AN heights in the Aleutians move into the GOA, this is the potential that exists if that happens.  The control is a little later with this evolution, and I think it is certainly possible that the CFS breaks down the eastern ridge too quickly.   And again, the CFS is not a model which I trust as it has a cool bias at times.  However, with the Euro suite bouncing around about as much as the CFSv2...might as well give it a look.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

RGEM still showing a few flakes Wed AM:

The NAM suite is ever so slightly flatter with the jet to our north and so there isn't as much lift. And just so it's clear, I'm not hoping for some crippling doom storm. I'm shooting for an hour of wet, light snow somewhere in the N. Plateau, SW VA or NE TN. 

But hey the "Thunder in the Mountains" (TIM model) is coming in with a good run at 12z:

 

[iluvsnow]

34 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

John pretty well covered the first potential winter event next weekend which will likely precede an underdetermined period of warmth which follows.  The EPS certainly looks like it would kick the trough eastward(if it continue?) late in its run as AN heights move into the GOA.  Just to show that we aren't talking out of our minds.  This is what the CFSv2 has this morning after a similar set-up (to the EPS) on it.  Will be interesting to see which fork in the road modeling eventually takes.  I do my best not to talk in absolutes but it can happen.  So for now, just presenting two options.  The warm option has been well documented.  However, I do not think it is a given right now that things turn warm and stay warm through the core of winter.  I certainly don't discount that, but certainly can see that the potential for other scenarios exist.  Again, my overall winter forecast ideas are warm with January and February being the warmest month.  My main contention is that cold(possibly severe at times) will be embedded within those warm means similar to 17-18.   IF(stress IF) the AN heights in the Aleutians move into the GOA, this is the potential that exists if that happens.  The control is a little later with this evolution, and I think it is certainly possible that the CFS breaks down the eastern ridge too quickly.   And again, the CFS is not a model which I trust as it has a cool bias at times.  However, with the Euro suite bouncing around about as much as the CFSv2...might as well give it a look.

Carver....you give enthusiasts the best analysis on this board....about any sub-forum. Just wanted to say how much we in the Great Lakes and Oho Valley appreciate the work. I wish we had someone of your knowledge and expertise up here...but having access to your posts will suffice. Keep up the great work.

[Carvers Gap]

26 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

RGEM still showing a few flakes Wed AM:

The NAM suite is ever so slightly flatter with the jet to our north and so there isn't as much lift. And just so it's clear, I'm not hoping for some crippling doom storm. I'm shooting for an hour of wet, light snow somewhere in the N. Plateau, SW VA or NE TN. 

But hey the "Thunder in the Mountains" (TIM model) is coming in with a good run at 12z:

 

Thunder in the mountains!!!   LOL.   

[Carvers Gap]

16 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Carver....you give enthusiasts the best analysis on this board....about any sub-forum. Just wanted to say how much we in the Great Lakes and Oho Valley appreciate the work. I wish we had someone of your knowledge and expertise up here...but having access to your posts will suffice. Keep up the great work.

Thanks for the humbling compliment.   Truly, there are many on this sub-forum and other sub-forums who know much more than I do.  I learned(and still learn daily) from those folks, and realize each day how little I know(the more that I do this).  What makes AmWx so awesome is that it is a collection of people who enjoy the weathe/climater(enthusiasts is a great word), and generally keep it free of the clutter of the rest of this world.  We just come here and talk weather which is awesome.  We are also truly fortunate to have meteorologists who participate.  Hopefully, we can find some cold weather this winter.   My wife's family is from northern Ohio! So, nice connection there!!!

[PowellVolz]

Was not expecting this much rain this morning. Also quite a few severe reports in the typical favored areas. Northern Plateau and southern plateau to Chattanooga.


.

[nrgjeff]

Tennessee only produces during marginal setups. Moderate risks bust.

As for winter, now a +GLAAM screws up any MJO attempt at normally colder phases. Continue SER indefinitely. 

Weeklies offer an opening right after Christmas. Sometimes those go faster. While I'm jawboning flamethrower, of course I'm hoping for a Christmas miracle. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Tennessee only produces during marginal setups. Moderate risks bust.

As for winter, now a +GLAAM screws up any MJO attempt at normally colder phases. Continue SER indefinitely. 

Weeklies offer an opening right after Christmas. Sometimes those go faster. While I'm jawboning flamethrower, of course I'm hoping for a Christmas miracle. 

You are just preparing for basketball season.  LOL.  Hey, may be time to talk a little basketball in the banter thread.  

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS...Kind of wonky after d10, but does manage to pop a massive east basted -NAO(loosely defined admittedly).  Also, the much discussed ridge lasts about one week.  Seems suspicious for it to break down that quickly, and the GFS is often too quick to roll over well established ridges.  I use this term a bit to much.  But certainly is a break from continuity.  The evolution of that pattern is wonky enough to cast doubt upon it.  However, it is not without some support from previous CFSv2 runs.  

Higher elevation snows still showing up for next weekend as well.  If I hadn't been watching the big red blob over eastern North America for nearly a week straight in LR modeling, I would actually be ok with that run considering it is only December.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Was not expecting this much rain this morning. Also quite a few severe reports in the typical favored areas. Northern Plateau and southern plateau to Chattanooga.


.

Shafted here with rain amounts again. Weakness developed between heavy area north and south along precip shield. Just 0.33" as of 12:30 p.m..

[PowellVolz]

Shafted here with rain amounts again. Weakness developed between heavy area north and south along precip shield. Just 0.33" as of 12:30 p.m..

Ended up with .76”. Seemed like it was much more though.


.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Thoughts?

Webb has a Masiello endorsement... 

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Thoughts?

Webb has a Masiello endorsement... 

Yep.  No idea of it happens, but the scenario is a possibility.  The 12z GFS shows high latitude blocking galore.  The GEFS is well into 7 approaching 8 on the MJO plots of CPC.  However, I do urge caution with those as Jeff makes a sound case for it not rotating into 8.  That said, Atlantic blocking could offer some relief as it did last winter.  Those guys in those tweets have forgotten more than I will ever know.  

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Yep.  No idea of it happens, but the scenario is a possibility.  The 12z GFS shows high latitude blocking galore.  The GEFS is well into 7 approaching 8 on the MJO plots of CPC.  However, I do urge caution with those as Jeff makes a sound case for it not rotating into 8.  That said, Atlantic blocking could offer some relief as it did last winter.  Those guys in those tweets have forgotten more than I will ever know.  

IF the HLB does manifest then we should be in business regardless of MJO and the crappy PAC at least in northern forum areas, as last Winter showed as long as it's formidable and stable for awhile, providing there's enuff cold from Canada to come down, of which doesn't look like a problem. 

    

[Holston_River_Rambler]

31 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

 However, I do urge caution with those as Jeff makes a sound case for it not rotating into 8

TBH, I'm kind of waiting for Jeff to lay the smack down on me for bringing up the MJO again. (And from Twitter no less).

 

Please be merciful Jeff. We weenies have to have hope. 

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

TBH, I'm kind of waiting for Jeff to lay the smack down on me for bringing up the MJO again. (And from Twitter no less).

 

Please be merciful Jeff. We weenies have to have hope. 

LOL.  He has been salty lately!  I like it though.  Jeff shoots straight.   I can be just as salty at times.  He and @Mr. Kevin are just making sure there is balance to the force.   Staring at the big red blob over the Aleutians and eastern NA....Literally, I sit and look at operationals and ensembles and am like, "How long can that feature stay in one place?!"  Heck, I am just glad to see it wobble just a bit!

[Carvers Gap]

37 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

IF the HLB does manifest then we should be in business regardless of MJO and the crappy PAC at least in northern forum areas, as last Winter showed as long as it's formidable and stable for awhile, providing there's enuff cold from Canada to come down, of which doesn't look like a problem. 

    

I mean is it too much to ask for the Pacific and Atlantic to both be in sync just once every twenty years or so?!  LOL.  I think the cold is there this year.  Just need to get out of the eastern ridge and/or gradient pattern(where the cold is bottled up north of the lower 48).  I tend to think the November pattern will repeat in a way that disrupts the overall base-warm pattern.   I was reading a post on FB from some folks in western Montana.  They are like, "Where is the snow?"  It is brown up there when snow  pack building should be well under way.  I have a feeling that is about to change for them though.

[Carvers Gap]

Of course we knew the Weeklies (Euro) would be toasty.  I wasn't expecting its control to be exactly (and I mean totally) the opposite for the entire run.

[Mr. Kevin]

42 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Of course we knew the Weeklies (Euro) would be toasty.  I wasn't expecting its control to be exactly (and I mean totally) the opposite for the entire run.

Webber and masiello are smart as fook lol. I don't want a blowtorch all winter, but an east based nao wont help us. West based is key imo. I mentioned this recently but the standing wave has to break down for us to not blowtorch and be stuck in 4-6 phases all winter. 

[Mr. Kevin]

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

IF the HLB does manifest then we should be in business regardless of MJO and the crappy PAC at least in northern forum areas, as last Winter showed as long as it's formidable and stable for awhile, providing there's enuff cold from Canada to come down, of which doesn't look like a problem. 

    

Dont you think one model will fold in regards to mjo? They both adamant about what they indicating. In 17-18 winter, shortly after Christmas, it was a strong cold blast and my car battery went dead and had to get another one. Very cold air.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Dont you think one model will fold in regards to mjo? They both adamant about what they indicating. In 17-18 winter, shortly after Christmas, it was a strong cold blast and my car battery went dead and had to get another one. Very cold air.

You know they really aren't that far off right now.  Just spitballing, but I think we have a cold shot coming later this month.  They are possibly sniffing out a trough amplification(no idea if a pattern change) after the 21st.  But yeah, I like 17-18 as my general rule for this winter...but I think we get a second shot of cold this time around due it being a second year Nina and the QBO in our favor.  November being cold is a big card.  I mean the Weeklies control is stone cold while the mean is warm - not sure I have ever seen the two that opposite.  The control just unloads on the forum area with -20F departures at times(and a prolonged cold shot at that).  JB made a good point this evening - he noted that the AO and EPO are negative in the means for the 12z EPS late in the run(think it was the EPS but you can check me on that) where they were not at 0z.  The Weeklies are derived from the morning run.  Would have been interesting to see the Weeklies run from the 12z run.    Maybe some light at the end of the tunnel.  Let's just hope it isn't a train!  LOL.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Webber and masiello are smart as fook lol. I don't want a blowtorch all winter, but an east based nao wont help us. West based is key imo. I mentioned this recently but the standing wave has to break down for us to not blowtorch and be stuck in 4-6 phases all winter. 

Yeah, those cats are sharp!  East based is kind of dry NW flow if we are lucky with a ridge trying to belly in from the southwest.  My thinking on that is the east based NAO would hopefully retrograde westward.  

[Mr. Kevin]

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

You know they really aren't that far off right now.  Just spitballing, but I think we have a cold shot coming later this month.  They are possibly sniffing out a trough amplification(no idea if a pattern change) after the 21st.  But yeah, I like 17-18 as my general rule for this winter...but I think we get a second shot of cold this time around due it being a second year Nina and the QBO in our favor.  November being cold is a big card.  I mean the Weeklies control is stone cold while the mean is warm - not sure I have ever seen the two that opposite.  The control just unloads on the forum area with -20F departures at times(and a prolonged cold shot at that).  JB made a good point this evening - he noted that the AO and EPO are negative in the means for the 12z EPS late in the run(think it was the EPS but you can check me on that) where they were not at 0z.  The Weeklies are derived from the morning run.  Would have been interesting to see the Weeklies run from the 12z run.    Maybe some light at the end of the tunnel.  Let's just hope it isn't a train!  LOL.  

JoeB and JoeD have a good gig with weatherbell for sure. They have to hype cold to get subscribers. I understand to an extent. I wonder if they sound more realistic on the videos on wxbell compared to Twitter or FB? They are smart people and I like JoeD better than JoeB but imo. 

[Carvers Gap]

34 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

JoeB and JoeD have a good gig with weatherbell for sure. They have to hype cold to get subscribers. I understand to an extent. I wonder if they sound more realistic on the videos on wxbell compared to Twitter or FB? They are smart people and I like JoeD better than JoeB but imo. 

I don't follow them on social media.  I don't even Twitter.  LOL.  Most of the cool tweets I read are from AmWx or @tnweathernutwill keep me plugged-in.   I get up in the morning and work through models, usually before I go to any sites just to have an unbiased perspective. May catch some of the Bills game as the weather their is windy and at times snowy.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

NAMs, RGEM, and RAP all show a quick shot of snow tomorrow AM for extreme NE TN and SW VA. 

Just based on living here as long as I have, the RAP's solution looks realistic to me:

 

 

I fully expect 27, 8 x 10 glossy photos with circles and arrows illustrating all 27 snowflakes that fall, lol. 

Seriously, if I could get away tomorrow AM, I would drive to the Grayson Highlands and brave the biting ponies, for my one exact hour of light snow. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Ehrmergerd, could it be?

GFS 50 mb Heights:

 

GFS 10 mb heights:

 

GFS 10 mb temps:

 

Obvs still a long way to go, but 6z GFS was interesting regarding the strat.