Winter 2021/22 December Thread

[Daniel Boone]

Maybe the Global warming Climate money grabbing bunch are involved. Hacking models to produce warm outlooks

[Mr. Kevin]

If true, a heck of a flip in the models imo. Maybe bonks runs, we will soon find out

[Mr. Kevin]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GFS has a minor, northwest flow event for favored areas next weekend as well - meaning snow showers with minor accumulations on northwest facing slopes.

Do you think it's all attributed to what jax mentioned last night? Or is something else going on? I kinda believe it has a little to do with the niña more east based now imo

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Do you think it's all attributed to what jax mentioned last night? Or is something else going on? I kinda believe it has a little to do with the niña more east based now imo

I think there are some likely differences getting worked out in modeling.  There should be cold pushing further East with an MJO phase 7.  Ensembles are still pretty rock solid though.  But if the models are going to crack, operationals will crack first.

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Do you think it's all attributed to what jax mentioned last night? Or is something else going on? I kinda believe it has a little to do with the niña more east based now imo

Plus, for whatever reasons, modeling has been missing amplifications for about the past 4-6 weeks.    Not sure why.

[Mr. Kevin]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Plus, for whatever reasons, modeling has been missing amplifications for about the past 4-6 weeks.    Not sure why.

So far, the mjo charts look decent, other than bc ecmwf, which always concerns me lol. JB still hyping pv split lol. Mentioned 84-85 winter. 

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

So far, the mjo charts look decent, other than bc ecmwf, which always concerns me lol. JB still hyping pv split lol. Mentioned 84-85 winter. 

Haven’t looked at WXBell today.  There are some similarities to 84-85, but to me that is a stand alone year.  It is like a 100 year blizzard like ‘93.  Not sure anyone can predict extremes like that with a ton of lead time.   We will see more extreme cold and snow in our lifetimes.  Harkening back to last year, the AMO has to flip for those winters of old to return regularly. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Normally not a huge BAMWX fan, but:

 

[Mr. Kevin]

27 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Normally not a huge BAMWX fan, but:

 

We will be fooked if mjo stays in warm phases all winter. Plain and simple lol

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Mr. Kevin said:

We will be fooked if mjo stays in warm phases all winter. Plain and simple lol

Strong blocking could still counter it pretty good but, that's hard to bet on.

[Met1985]

What the models are spitting out pretty much coincidences with the PNA and NAO areas. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Mr. Kevin said:

We will be fooked if mjo stays in warm phases all winter. Plain and simple lol

7 is not a warm phase during December though.  It is cold to the Apps.   Now, if it is stuck in January....it is a warm signal.  It is part of the reason Decembers are often cold during La Nina's.  The same Pacific set-up which makes December cold works against us during Jan/Feb.  There are definitely cracks in modeling right now.  No idea if that amounts to anything.  But just imagine walking out on the ice, and the cracking noise becomes more frequent.  That is what we are "listening" for.  Right now, they are just random off runs.  But make no mistake, modeling lost next weekend's amplification after originally having it.  My guess is that we are going to have strong ridges this winter.  I just don't see any way around that.  However, I think the cold is going to push more than LR modeling depicts.  We have seen that over and over again since early November.  Hey, we manage a super cold shot last year with crap MJO phases.  I will dig around this weekend and try to find some examples of MJOs that rotated 3-6 and still had snow.  There is some correlation to North Carolina snowstorms and maybe phase 3?  The North Carolina guys can correct me on that.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Mr. Kevin said:

We will be fooked if mjo stays in warm phases all winter. Plain and simple lol

But it wouldn't be the first time at our latitude that we have gotten the shaft.  LOL.  We are used to it.

[Mr. Kevin]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

7 is not a warm phase during December though.  It is cold to the Apps.   Now, if it is stuck in January....it is a warm signal.  It is part of the reason Decembers are often cold during La Nina's.  The same Pacific set-up which makes December cold works against us during Jan/Feb.  There are definitely cracks in modeling right now.  No idea if that amounts to anything.  But just imagine walking out on the ice, and the cracking noise becomes more frequent.  That is what we are "listening" for.  Right now, they are just random off runs.  But make no mistake, modeling lost next weekend's amplification after originally having it.  My guess is that we are going to have strong ridges this winter.  I just don't see any way around that.  However, I think the cold is going to push more than LR modeling depicts.  We have seen that over and over again since early November.  Hey, we manage a super cold shot last year with crap MJO phases.  I will dig around this weekend and try to find some examples of MJOs that rotated 3-6 and still had snow.  There is some correlation to North Carolina snowstorms and maybe phase 3?  The North Carolina guys can correct me on that.  

We had a SSW event that overwhelmed everything last February 

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

We had a SSW event that overwhelmed everything last February 

Yep.  That followed an extended run of -NAO blocking.  Both of those overwhelmed a really bad Pac set-up and a terrible MJO cycle with the exception of the 8-2-1 loop in December which worked well in E TN.  -NAOs tend to run in cycles.  Would be nice to get another this winter.  Not feeling that, but who knows...maybe.

[jaxjagman]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

@jaxjagman, looks you called it with the cold shot next weekend.  12z GFS/GEFS has it and so does the Euro at 12z.   I think this is a great example(if it verifies) of why modeling that looks wall-to-wall warm(or cold) is highly suspicious.  Makes me wonder if there is a model input problem in terms of data.

It should turn cold but before both the GFS and Euro is looking severe next weekend,could change this far out.MJO Looks good right now,even the CFS is showing a strong signal into Africa into the last week of Dec.Nothing wrong with that but you should proceed with caution on that one

[Carvers Gap]

On 12/2/2021 at 10:41 AM, Carvers Gap said:

The cold snap of 17-18 isn't spoken about much as it produce very little snow and bitterly cold temps.  It occurred at the end of December and went to mid-January.  That was pretty much it for that winter if I remember correctly.  Would not surprise me to see a similar event.  If that cold spell had not straddled two months, it would have created a ridiculously cold anomaly for a month.  That cold shot is hidden buried in monthly climatology by means which were warmer on the front and back end of that cold snap.   That cold snap was preceded by very warm tempt, almost 15 degree departures during a few of the days prior.  The rivers here in NE TN (which didn't have dams on them and warmer generator flows) froze almost solid.  I remember seeing squirrels walking across creeks which were frozen solid but nearly clear ice due to lack of snow.  The squirrel looked as curious  as me when it walked out there.    This reminds me a lot of that winter.  If we had any precip at all, would have been more memorable than it was.

@Mr. Kevin, Joe D'Aleo of WxBell published an article today about this analog year which was mentioned yesterday on this forum.

[John1122]

Potent front on the 00z GFS in about 8 days.  30 degree temp drops and back side snow with cold catching and undercutting the storm. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

One thing I do worry about worry about with the MJO progression is that as it works its way east, it gets shunted south of the equator, and the 0z GFS shows jus that:

That's not to say that the GFS is right, but it is something we've seen before and the kiss of death would be for it to spawn a TC in the southern hemisphere that rolls SE. 

Here are the EPS members takes on how this could unfold through Dec 19:

]

Def does seem like the wave will make and attempt to push east, but exactly how strong it is and how far it gets remain to be seen. 

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

One thing I do worry about worry about with the MJO progression is that as it works its way east, it gets shunted south of the equator, and the 0z GFS shows jus that:

That's not to say that the GFS is right, but it is something we've seen before and the kiss of death would be for it to spawn a TC in the southern hemisphere that rolls SE. 

Here are the EPS members takes on how this could unfold through Dec 19:

]

Def does seem like the wave will make and attempt to push east, but exactly how strong it is and how far it gets remain to be seen. 

I have a feeling this new pattern is locked in for at least a month. Big time mountain snow in the west with this pattern.

[Carvers Gap]

That ridge is going to want to hold in the East.  La Nina is famous for that feature, but when it relaxes extreme cold surges eastward after building in the northern Rockies and Canadian prairies.  It is interesting that Rockies have had so little snow right now.  They love La Nina winters, and right now La Nina has not kicked in out there - but it is about to.  The other interesting thing is that wx modeling seems to be missing troughs pushing eastward.  I think they are handling phase 7 of the MJO poorly.  Now, as we get closer to January, phase 7 switches from cold to warm in our region.   Biggest takeaway from modeling right now is that wx models are getting the base pattern likely correct, BUT are missing trough amplifications.  Those little troughs in the long range, are turning into much more formidable features as they draw closer.    Now, if someone wants a true bummer for a Saturday, look what happened after the cold in '89.  That is what we don't want.

[Carvers Gap]

Again, the thing that is so very suspicious is that modeling locks this pattern in for 4-5 months in some cases.  It could happen, but those looks are more than likely wrong.  We have seen this over and over again during recent winters where modeling will show a pattern repeating for months on end.  I tend to buy into 4-6 weeks weather cycles.  If so, this current warm cycle should break sometime during late December (at the earliest) or by mid-January(latest).  Now, that doesn't mean the new pattern is any better.  I am just saying the repetitive pattern at 500 is suspicious.  There are an increasing number of cold outliers in modeling even as we speak, but not worth really mentioning until those become trends.  And if models are missing troughs amplifying in the East, that is probably something that will continue.

[Carvers Gap]

That would be accumulating snowfall on the 12z CMC about 7 days out.  The GFS also loses the eternal ridge.  Cold air attacks it over and over.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

In terms of just having some cold around the TN Valley (which is I guess where we are at this point), the Euro has some light snow over KY in the wee hours of Wed morning. 

[Carvers Gap]

Ya'll, I am actually thankful for the break in the cold from the last month.  @Holston_River_Rambler, check out the 12z GEFS.  See that trough develop(retrogrades west) just east of Hawaii late in the run?  Probably have to use the northern hemisphere view to see it.   That argues for a big ridge out west.  Also notice the AN heights rotate out of Europe into Scandanavia.  Roll the forward about 48 hours and the trough reforms in the East.  There is an argument there for the eastern ridge to break down.  It is not out of the realm of possibility that the ridge only lasts for a week and a half.   

[nrgjeff]

BAMWX totally blew the latest MJO call. Models have been consistently moving convection east too much, and it has not budged. In fact it is very strong over the super hot (SER) Subcontinent. Also got ground truth from International friends the storms are bad there. 

I have to go with a 4-6 week much warmer than normal temp pattern which takes us through the New Year. That chart is more bearish than any stork market chart. Mele Kalikimaka is Merry Christmas in Hawaiian.

[Carvers Gap]

@nrgjeff, been digging on this and can't find it.  I am seeing substantial heights build over Scandinavia and the Urals on the EPS.  Seems like that is a precursor to cold here or maybe a strat warm.  I can't remember if either is true.  Right now I see roughly three pools of warm and three cold, tri-pole right?  Maybe that configuration is muting that ridge's influence here?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

A little (always successful ) "just in time" wintry action at the end of the hi reses at 18z 

 

 

 

 

 

[AMZ8990]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

A little (always successful ) "just in time" wintry action at the end of the hi reses at 18z 

 

 

 

 

 

That run was all over the place in terms of temps.  Get your sunblock and parka ready folks.  lol 

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS is very close to a major winter storm next weekend.  It is similar to the CMC.  Ways out there, and everyone should now the drill.