Winter 2021/22 December Thread

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Is the MJO really moving that much or is this constructive interference from a EW?

The Equatorial subsurface temp has rose the last couple days and you also saw the SOI flip flop back into a more NINO but now its back to NINA so it had a brief hit on NINA but it still looks rather healthy.

My bet is it will turn possibly cold into the 2nd week of Jan., but nothing seems to be locking nothing in.CFS seems to want the MJO to strengthen back into Africa into Jan then into the IO after but i wouldnt rely on that right now.

Mid 70's possible Christmas day,possible severe weather next weekwhat season is this?

 

With all the destruction with the recent severe outbreak, lets hope we don't deal with more severe, although wouldn't be surprising. Anytime you have extreme warmth in Winter, that's one of the drawbacks or in many cases, price to pay. Anytime there's a clash in distinct opposite airmasses,regardless of what time of year, that's always a threat.

    I love wx action in any form for the most part but, even if Severe was my only liking, I'd bite the bullet and pray or hope against it now.

      

[Carvers Gap]

Update:  This is the wrong link.  Correct link to the weeklies is below.  Unreal the similarities.

Thought this was kind of fun.  This is what the Weeklies had for the pattern that ran-up to the crippling Arctic outbreak/over-running event last year during mid-February.    @Holston_River_Rambler, just needed your map - not picking on you in the least.  Take a look at Holston's bleaklies thread.  Indeed, they looked bleak.  Two and a half weeks later, the power was out in the western areas of the forum.  

 

[John1122]

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thought this was kind of fun.  This is what the Weeklies had for the pattern that ran-up to the crippling Arctic outbreak/over-running event last year during mid-February.    @Holston_River_Rambler, just needed your map - not picking on you in the least.  Take a look at Holston's bleaklies thread.  Indeed, they looked bleak.  Two and a half weeks later, the power was out in the western areas of the forum.  

 

Unfortunately that's 2020, and that February was quite bleak. 

[Carvers Gap]

17 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Unfortunately that's 2020, and that February was quite bleak. 

Ah, yes.  Thanks.  Grabbed the wrong one.  Here is the set of Weeklies running up to the outbreak last February.  Still, lots of similarities to now.

 

[Carvers Gap]

17 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Unfortunately that's 2020, and that February was quite bleak. 

19-20'...What was the ENSO state that year?

[John1122]

To find hope, go back to 2015/16. December was very warm, unendingly so it seemed. We had two severe weather threads in December. Our first winter storm threat wasn't until mid-January and it fizzled at the last minute. Then winter unleashed over the next 30 or so days. 

[John1122]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

19-20'...What was the ENSO state that year?

Neutral. 

[John1122]

The La Nina isn't yet behaving quite like a typical La Nina. Southern California should be BN for precip during La Nina. The Los Angeles area after today already has their normal or even above normal monthly rainfall and they are expected to get rain for 4 more days through New Years Eve. The HP that typically is in the N. Pac during a Nina is further NW than normal and that's allowing the downstream trough to be below Southen California instead of further inland. 

I've seen some bad winter as a snow lover but never in my life have I seen a winter that didn't have at least a few weeks of winter weather sprinkled into it. 

[Carvers Gap]

Not sure how I got into the Feb 20 thread!  LOL.  Last year's GEFS(about two weeks prior to the winter/ice storm) do indeed look almost identical to LR maps right now.  Correct link is above.  Thanks to @Holston_River_Ramblerfor posting those gifs.  They are a great historical tool.

[Mr. Kevin]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Not sure how I got into the Feb 20 thread!  LOL.  Last year's weeklies(about two weeks prior to the winter/ice storm) do indeed look almost identical to LR maps right now.  Correct link is above.  Thanks to @Holston_River_Ramblerfor posting those gifs.  They are a great historical tool.

I was very happy to be on the good end of February with very cold and snow. Very rare this far south. 

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The La Nina isn't yet behaving quite like a typical La Nina. Southern California should be BN for precip during La Nina. The Los Angeles area after today already has their normal or even above normal monthly rainfall and they are expected to get rain for 4 more days through New Years Eve. The HP that typically is in the N. Pac during a Nina is further NW than normal and that's allowing the downstream trough to be below Southen California instead of further inland. 

I've seen some bad winter as a snow lover but never in my life have I seen a winter that didn't have at least a few weeks of winter weather sprinkled into it. 

Yeah, I kind of stumbled into the Feb 20 thread.  Pattern looks very nada right now...similar to that.  Here is last year's pattern that ran up to the big storm.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

That pattern I just posted looks remarkably similar to LR modeling today...and also to Feb 20'. One was a nada and one was a La Nina.  One was a dud and the other was historic.

@John1122, very interesting about LA and great post.  I have always considered storms coming in at the latitude of LA a good thing.  That has not held true so far.  I have held to the rule of thumb that storms that enter the west at a specific latitude normal exit on the east at a similar latitude.  Not always true, but wonder at some point if that works in our favor.  

[Mr. Kevin]

No doubt  we get a cold shot around or after  new years, behind a system but it lasts a day and it warms back up. Definitely  would like to get a shakeup in the stagnant pattern. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just because it is a slow night....will talk the 0z GFS

By 189, there is a continue trend of disrupting the Aleutian high.  Trough would appear to be headed eastward...we'll see if we don't get a cutter first.

[Carvers Gap]

At 204, it appears the cold front has sped up a bit...let's see if it makes it all of the way through.

[Carvers Gap]

By 210, the Aleutian high is back....the question is will it rotate eastward as the trough digs SE.  If so, and EPO would pop.

[Carvers Gap]

This GFS run will revert back to a strong Aleutian high.  Trough may rotate through after the cold front on the 3rd.  Feature that seems kind of new is the vortex over HB which is spinning cold air southward.  That cold work.  Let's see how that works in future runs.  Been there for several, but is seemingly more pronounced with each run.

[Carvers Gap]

0z GFS is a strung out mess with vortices all over the place....like I said, be ready the next run will change.  

[Carvers Gap]

Going to hit the sack and will end with this, there is a lot of precip running that boundary after the 30th.  If it manages to get colder, that event has low percentage chance of being a frozen event.

[jaxjagman]

Pretty impressive FWIW

 

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
24 Dec 2021	1014.85	1005.50	29.22	10.18	10.14
23 Dec 2021	1011.50	1006.15	8.46	9.60	9.63
22 Dec 2021	1009.09	1007.85	-12.87	9.60	9.34
21 Dec 2021	1009.99	1011.50	-27.14	10.36	9.37
20 Dec 2021	1011.33	1009.50	-9.81	11.50	9.67

[jaxjagman]

6 hours ago, John1122 said:

The La Nina isn't yet behaving quite like a typical La Nina. Southern California should be BN for precip during La Nina. The Los Angeles area after today already has their normal or even above normal monthly rainfall and they are expected to get rain for 4 more days through New Years Eve. The HP that typically is in the N. Pac during a Nina is further NW than normal and that's allowing the downstream trough to be below Southen California instead of further inland. 

I've seen some bad winter as a snow lover but never in my life have I seen a winter that didn't have at least a few weeks of winter weather sprinkled into it. 

I wish Alan Huffman still had his ENSO models,but ii'm not sure its that far off,with a ridge into Western AK into the Aleutians

EUTIAEUTIAN

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Psu had a good post a day or two ago about the Pac and recent ENSO states. I screen shotted it because it was a nice reanalysis image. If you see this psu, thanks for making that reanalysis image. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Psu had a good post a day or two ago about the Pac and recent ENSO states. I screen shotted it because it was a nice reanalysis image. If you see this psu, thanks for making that reanalysis image. 

 

We get back to what Typhoon Tip talked about several years ago which is the SST gradient between an ENSO event and surrounding waters.  The gradient has to be sharp for the analogs to work.  Additionally we have not seen a lot of trips through 8-1-2 with the MJO either due to the IO or other reasons.  I would probably disagree that we have seen a true -NAO show(Davis Straits) up at the proper time until last year.  Having a -NAO that lasts most of the winter is a rare thing.  I definitely agree that the trough tucked into the West(under an EPO ridge) has been a strong commonality for roughly four years or so - regardless of the wx pattern.  My personal opinion is lack of SST gradient and convection in MJO zones which less than advantageous.  That said, what we have seen IMBY are quick starts to winter which fade.  This year, that cold came in November.  The trend here has been early snows, even as early as Halloween.  Last year, even with a similar pattern as this year, we still managed a historic ice/snow storm over the forum area.  The other thing this winter is just how cold Canada is...

I suspect that we see a bit of a scaled reset of Pac SSTs after this La Nina.  We have had good winters after La Nina cycles.  Why?  Water cools and the gradient for the Nina which is surely to arrive next has a better gradient.

[Carvers Gap]

Oddly this AM, the warm biased EPS has a nice set-up from the 3rd forward with a ridge rolling through during that time.  Will wait and see if it holds at 12z before discussing further.  Right now we have the EPS/GEPS with colder solutions after the 2nd with a ridge rolling through after the cold shot.  That window around the 3rd has some potential though the window is tight.    

[Carvers Gap]

7 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Pretty impressive FWIW

 

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
24 Dec 2021	1014.85	1005.50	29.22	10.18	10.14
23 Dec 2021	1011.50	1006.15	8.46	9.60	9.63
22 Dec 2021	1009.09	1007.85	-12.87	9.60	9.34
21 Dec 2021	1009.99	1011.50	-27.14	10.36	9.37
20 Dec 2021	1011.33	1009.50	-9.81	11.50	9.67

That is an El Nino signal right, and strong at that?

[Carvers Gap]

So something to watch is the breakdown and/or weakening of the Aleutian high.  The EPS is very aggressive with this.  I ned to see a couple of more runs before I give that look credence.  However, the GEPS is similar.  The reason the GEFS is an outlier this morning among the big three global ensembles is that it is slower to weaken the high.  However, the trend across the board was to weaken the Aleutian high overnight(in the long range).  Let's watch and see if this is a trend.  This is the time of year when the EPS begins to rule the roost.  So trends on it must be taken into account.  Could just have been a blip due to data input or could be the beginning of a trend.  Just don't know right now.  

One other thing to watch, and the Euro Weeklies had this yesterday, is for the cold to push under the SER.  That is sometimes a mistake by modeling to depict that, but it can happen during January as climatology(favors stronger cold across the northern hemisphere) supports colder air masses which can push....

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z European control lifts out the Aleutian's high, and temporarily reverses the pattern downstream.  We have seen that look on a few recent GFS runs, notably the most recent 6z.  

[jaxjagman]

40 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That is an El Nino signal right, and strong at that?

for a brief time it went NINO back to NINA again 

[Carvers Gap]

31 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

for a brief time it went NINO back to NINA again 

Thanks, man.  Hope you and your family are doing well.  Is Nina expected to last through winter or move to neutral?

[AMZ8990]

MJO forecast this morning looks like Phase 7 for a while to me.  A few solutions take it into phase 8 but the overwhelming majority keep in in phase 7.