Winter 2021/22 December Thread

[nrgjeff]

Getting bullish December vibes. First the keep it simple method, November was cold. Trend is one's friend in most cases. Second the GEFS just caved to the colder EPS at 12Z Friday. Now to the non-model evidence.

MJO push is already strengthening the jet stream off Asia. It's usually strong this time of year, but it's really amped up now. ENSO with -GLAAM is a cold December pattern with southern storm track especially with the MJO coming out of the West Pac. 

Members know I'm usually pretty skeptical about cold; however, I have reasoning when I'm skeptical. No reason to be blindly mild. Right now the current trove of evidence supports a cold weather pattern.

[Mr. Kevin]

37 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Getting bullish December vibes. First the keep it simple method, November was cold. Trend is one's friend in most cases. Second the GEFS just caved to the colder EPS at 12Z Friday. Now to the non-model evidence.

MJO push is already strengthening the jet stream off Asia. It's usually strong this time of year, but it's really amped up now. ENSO with -GLAAM is a cold December pattern with southern storm track especially with the MJO coming out of the West Pac. 

Members know I'm usually pretty skeptical about cold; however, I have reasoning when I'm skeptical. No reason to be blindly mild. Right now the current trove of evidence supports a cold weather pattern.

Hi Jeff. Do you think the mjo will make it to phase 7 and 8? Would it be ok to get it into the cod also? Just wondering. My feeling is, correct me if I'm wrong, the trending niña more east based with -qbo will give models fits for a while imo

[nrgjeff]

La Nina is notoriously volatile and yes the models will suffer. La Nina is still basin-wide. Weekly wiggles in the regions are noise compared to the overall signal. 

Meanwhile the negative trending QBO could be bullish; however, a fake-out would not be helpful.

Invest in the West Pac has models confused going warmer. I'd give that a another couple days. Could flip right back cold Sunday or Monday.

[Carvers Gap]

There is a 1065 hp in the Canadian Rockies around 324 on the 12z GFS run.  Fantasy land for sure, but I generally have found that when the GFS starts to "sense" those big highs, it is a hint that cold may well press eastward after first pooling in the Rockies.  Definitely some uncertainty with the MJO as modeling can't seem to decide whether to leave it in phase 7 or loop it back towards 6.  But wow, some gigantic highs on the 12z GFS.

[Carvers Gap]

With that big high, is the GFS beginning to sense an SSW?

[Carvers Gap]

Yep, indeed the 12z GFS nearly or completely severs the SPV late in the run at 10, 30, and 50 mb.  Now, normally I give it little credence at that range, BUT it has an uncanny ability to nail those events at range even if it misses nearly everything else.  Huge implications down the road if that early season split occurs.

[Mr. Kevin]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yep, indeed the 12z GFS nearly or completely severs the SPV late in the run at 10, 30, and 50 mb.  Now, normally I give it little credence at that range, BUT it has an uncanny ability to nail those events at range even if it misses nearly everything else.  Huge implications down the road if that early season split occurs.

JB mentioned that today also along with 12zeuro about SSW possibilities. I think if we have one, it will be early instead of later, but that's me assuming lol. 

[Carvers Gap]

32 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

JB mentioned that today also along with 12zeuro about SSW possibilities. I think if we have one, it will be early instead of later, but that's me assuming lol. 

Not uncommon during second year La Nina's I don't think.  JB has been calling for a strat warm forever.  He has to be right at some point?  I have noticed when SSWs begin to appear, modeling goes absolutely haywire.  Was my first thought when I saw modeling go warm, then cold, and now warm again.  I don't think they are done bouncing around.  I think at some point, if real, we will see a high latitude blocking signal appear on LR modeling.  Past few years, the West has won the SSW lottery.  Climo might favor the eastern part of NA if the split pushes cold onto our side of the hemisphere.  That is another reason we want an early split.  Wavelength pattern favors us early.

[Mr. Kevin]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Not uncommon during second year La Nina's I don't think.  JB has been calling for a strat warm forever.  He has to be right at some point?  I have noticed when SSWs begin to appear, modeling goes absolutely haywire.  Was my first thought when I saw modeling go warm, then cold, and now warm again.  I don't think they are done bouncing around.  I think at some point, if real, we will see a high latitude blocking signal appear on LR modeling.  Past few years, the West has won the SSW lottery.  Climo might favor the eastern part of NA if the split pushes cold onto our side of the hemisphere.  That is another reason we want an early split.  Wavelength pattern favors us early.

Do you think the rmm charts of the mjo are misleading? Of where the mjo is actually? If mjo is really going into colder phases, the ensembles and models shouldn't be so warm

[Carvers Gap]

11 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Do you think the rmm charts of the mjo are misleading? Of where the mjo is actually? If mjo is really going into colder phases, the ensembles and models shouldn't be so warm

I haven’t looked at them today...However modeling does show a few shots of cold consistent with phase 7.  Then, MJO site shows a cluster of models which try to loop the MJO back into 6 which is consistent with the warm-up late in the LR.  So, model output seems to be consistent with that uncertainty as they bounce around.  Interestingly, the warmth seems to be getting pushed back some.  I still like the 10-20th for a ridge to roll through/form in the East.

[Mr. Kevin]

22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I haven’t looked at them today...However modeling does show a few shots of cold consistent with phase 7.  Then, MJO site shows a cluster of models which try to loop the MJO back into 6 which is consistent with the warm-up late in the LR.  So, model output seems to be consistent with that uncertainty as they bounce around.  Interestingly, the warmth seems to be getting pushed back some.  I still like the 10-20th for a ridge to roll through/form in the East.

Carver, the mjo stuff has been updated. Gefs bc looks good at least for today. 

[Mr. Kevin]

9 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, the mjo stuff has been updated. Gefs bc looks good at least for today. 

 

[nrgjeff]

GFS is particularly good at those 50 mb and 10 mb levels and it's been talked about for over a decade in the energy industry. Much as we make fun of it in the troposphere, we notice the stratosphere and plan accordioning. Don't pay attention to commodities this week due to market conditions. Pay attention to that Strato.

OK the MJO is confusing right now due to Invests out there. Models got hung up on the yellow one in a mild area (Southeast US). Now they are starting to pick up on red, which is new but of greater interest. Just gained HDDs this afternoon. Big overnight gain (Colder Southeast US) would not surprise me tonight. Red Invest is over a cold signal area. 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html Joint Typhoon Warning Center is useful year-round for drilling down MJO propaganda. 

[Mr. Kevin]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

GFS is particularly good at those 50 mb and 10 mb levels and it's been talked about for over a decade in the energy industry. Much as we make fun of it in the troposphere, we notice the stratosphere and plan accordioning. Don't pay attention to commodities this week due to market conditions. Pay attention to that Strato.

OK the MJO is confusing right now due to Invests out there. Models got hung up on the yellow one in a mild area (Southeast US). Now they are starting to pick up on red, which is new but of greater interest. Just gained HDDs this afternoon. Big overnight gain (Colder Southeast US) would not surprise me tonight. Red Invest is over a cold signal area. 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html Joint Typhoon Warning Center is useful year-round for drilling down MJO propaganda. 

Jeff, which model/ensembles usually have best track record with mjo progression? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

For those interested in the strat visuals:

GFS 50 mb heights and then 10 mb temps:

 

 

 

 

Same for the Euro:

 

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

For those interested in the strat visuals:

GFS 50 mb heights and then 10 mb temps:

 

 

 

 

Same for the Euro:

 

That is gonna leave a mark.  What to really watch for is if a SER connect with the WAR, and consequently sends a ton of warm surface air from the subtropics into the TPV.  That has been the sign of a top to bottom split.  The EPS has been close as has the GEPS.  Cosgrove correctly points out that most splits result in the cold heading to Eurasia.   However, just seems like modeling likes having cold on this side of the hemisphere in the LR.  I can say this though, modeling is going to be a total mess.  A strat split can actually trump a poor MJO phase.   I do not think modeling is even close to sorting out the LR outside of the SSW which seems probable.  

[nrgjeff]

THIS from Carvers above. We had a good MJO thing going. Trying for SSW at the same time reminds me of an old Wall St saying. Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered. Don't be greedy!

Strato confusion is mixed with tropical Pacific confusion. Both Japan and the US Navy have a typhoon developing in the West Pac. Curves away from the Phils mercifully. Talk about a royal cluster F in the extended forecast. GEFS and EPS do different things with that energy.

Here is the sharp disagreement between the GEFS and EPS.

 

Top European cluster (plurality not majority) at the surface is still cool Southeast with very warm Plains. GFS is warmer but 1/3 of its clusters are even colder Southeast - makes sense with the charts above. Bottom line. Enjoy the volatility!

 

[Mr. Kevin]

4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

THIS from Carvers above. We had a good MJO thing going. Trying for SSW at the same time reminds me of an old Wall St saying. Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered. Don't be greedy!

Strato confusion is mixed with tropical Pacific confusion. Both Japan and the US Navy have a typhoon developing in the West Pac. Curves away from the Phils mercifully. Talk about a royal cluster F in the extended forecast. GEFS and EPS do different things with that energy.

Here is the sharp disagreement between the GEFS and EPS.

 

Top European cluster (plurality not majority) at the surface is still cool Southeast with very warm Plains. GFS is warmer but 1/3 of its clusters are even colder Southeast - makes sense with the charts above. Bottom line. Enjoy the volatility!

 

Hopefully it will be ironed out soon. I believe it will. We are far from a cold stormier pattern in our area. SSW events are tricky because alot of times cold does go overseas and we miss out. We got lucky last February here. Hopefully its colder around Christmas here. 

[Carvers Gap]

LOL.  Let's hope that run of the Euro Weeklies is not correct.  

[Carvers Gap]

After Dec 10th, looks like some warm weather(above to much above is the question at the moment) is highly likely.  Models have been persistent with this look.  The Weeklies are SER in perpetuity(relentless on that run).  I think my idea of an early start to winter (which I put out in maybe June) is headed for bust city.  I think January and February have a good chance at verifying.  That said, Jan may have a chance at seasonal if the cold is delayed.  Although unlikely, I do think a non-winter is possible if the front end of winter is warm.  Weak Ninas tend to deliver cold which models are generally blind to at range.  So, I think we see 1-2 severe cold shots.  Right now the MJO and high latitude blocking are a problem - bad Atlantic and bad Pacific set-ups.  The strat warm is a MAJOR wild card.  If the SSW occurs from Dec10-15, we could see the first incoming shots of cold into the lower 48 about 20 days or so after that....Cosgrove has a good timeline with that which is sometime after Christmas to the first week of January.  So, the Weeklies are likely missing that shot of cold.  However, if the SSW doesn't verify, we may be in for a long stretch of warm weather.   That is surprising to me, but welcome to modeling chaos - it ain't always predictable.  LOL.  Huge grains of salt.  Volatile pattern, but models seem to be leaning warm during the past 48 hours.  Big ridge possible between the 10-20th of December.  Would not surprise me to see us in the upper 60s and into the 70s IMBY.

[Mr. Kevin]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

After Dec 10th, looks like some warm weather(above to much above is the question at the moment) is highly likely.  Models have been persistent with this look.  The Weeklies are SER in perpetuity(relentless on that run).  I think my idea of an early start to winter (which I put out in maybe June) is headed for bust city.  I think January and February have a good chance at verifying.  That said, Jan may have a chance at seasonal if the cold is delayed.  Although unlikely, I do think a non-winter is possible if the front end of winter is warm.  Weak Ninas tend to deliver cold which models are generally blind to at range.  So, I think we see 1-2 severe cold shots.  Right now the MJO and high latitude blocking are a problem - bad Atlantic and bad Pacific set-ups.  The strat warm is a MAJOR wild card.  If the SSW occurs from Dec10-15, we could see the first incoming shots of cold into the lower 48 about 20 days or so after that....Cosgrove has a good timeline with that which is sometime after Christmas to the first week of January.  So, the Weeklies are likely missing that shot of cold.  However, if the SSW doesn't verify, we may be in for a long stretch of warm weather.   That is surprising to me, but welcome to modeling chaos - it ain't always predictable.  LOL.  Huge grains of salt.  Volatile pattern, but models seem to be leaning warm during the past 48 hours.  Big ridge possible between the 10-20th of December.  Would not surprise me to see us in the upper 60s and into the 70s IMBY.

Carver, only chance we have legitimately is to have a strong enough mjo wave into phase 7 because 4-6 in winter is real warm. No questions asked lol. SSW are unpredictable. I expect a warm winter. Just hope like you mentioned that we have 1-2 big cold shots here. I think it would take a SSW to give us one of them imo. Definitely will be warm through mid December. Expect the worst and hope for the best

[Carvers Gap]

8 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, only chance we have legitimately is to have a strong enough mjo wave into phase 7 because 4-6 in winter is real warm. No questions asked lol. SSW are unpredictable. I expect a warm winter. Just hope like you mentioned that we have 1-2 big cold shots here. I think it would take a SSW to give us one of them imo. Definitely will be warm through mid December. Expect the worst and hope for the best

My ideas during June had a seasonal to BN month of December with January and February being AN w/ BN snowfall(but more than last year).  I think all bets are off right now.  I "think" I remember correctly that during a handful of weak Nina winters that the overall pattern was not MJO driven.  The MJO has been a huge driver of late, and I expect that to continue.  However, I don't have all of my eggs in that basket.  Second year, weak La Nina's generally have strong climatology which supports strong to severe cold shots even if the overall pattern for the winter is base warm.  That was my thinking in June and still is now.  The cold shot may not fit perfectly in the month of December.  

Models this morning are pretty warm for most of the Lower 48 not name Washington state -very zonal.  Long way to go as meteorological winter doesn't even start until tomorrow.  We have 14 weeks IMBY until things generally break for spring.  I am sure lots of unpredictability and volatility awaits. As with any winter, surprises are a near certainty.

[Carvers Gap]

And I should add, that if I saw modeling wall-to-wall cold, I would not trust it.  Same rule applies for modeling today.  A few years back, we had an SSW event during early February.  Majority of spring predictions were quite warm.  Pretty sure we didn't actually feel spring temps until mid April that year as winter was essentially felt during much of March.  Again and not to beat a dead horse, most of the non-winters in E TN are a result of strong El Ninos and a few strong La Ninas thrown in for good measure.  The coldest temps I have seen occurred during weak La Ninas and often had very little lead time in terms of forecasting.  Always kind of a bummer to see warm temps prognosticated during the run-up to Christmas, but until the last few years(where we have had early season snows), December was a "no go" IMBY for snow.  So, not overly concerned at this point with mild December temps.  I don't think the base winter pattern is even close to showing itself yet.  My non-winter comment originates from the idea that a warm-start to La Nina sometimes foreshadows warm winters, but if one looks at John's data above, there is a cluster of years where the cold didn't arrive until mid-winter or later.  It is worth repeating that each year is its own analog.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

25 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I don't think the base winter pattern is even close to showing itself yet.

[nrgjeff]

I'm punting the cold. Joining Mr. Kevin and the bears. Teleconnections have shifted sharply warmer as the Pacific typhoon develops.

SSW is actually not in the cards anyway. PV gets jostled by some warmth in the Northern Hemisphere; however, said warmth is not close enough to the pole. Active strato may be helpful later in winter, but that's a total wild card. Plus, studies do indeed show a stronger correlation with Eurasia cold. NA can get it delayed.

Maybe we get a cold shot around Christmas and again in January. I give up on any 4-6 week cold pattern though. Maybe used it up already.

[Carvers Gap]

Agree we are very likely in for some prolonged, very warm December weather after the 10th.  However, the GFS has pretty substantial warming at 10mb and has consistently shown this for several days.  Whether it can split the SPV, now that is another question entirely.  I see a temporary displacement into separate regions before coming back together.  However, by my definition, that is an SSW(sudden stratospheric warming event for new folks) - I did check the definition before posting this.   Last winter we saw several times where the strat warmed, and it looked like it would knock the TPV off its game and did not.  Finally, we saw a massive discharge of cold directly south into the nation's mid-section later in winter.  I actually consider it a good thing for the SPV to get disrupted early.  Now, glass half empty, one could say there is an SSW but the actually TPV is pretty tightly wound.  I think we are seeing the top of the polar vortex disrupted, but it is not propagating down to the surface at this point. 

[Carvers Gap]

And while we are on the topic of the MJO, there is still not a definitive trend on its loop into phase 7.  In general, looks like it takes a turn into phase 7.  Whether it loops back into 6 is a question.  Whether it loops into 7, back into 6, and back into 7(hence a loop) is a question.  However, I would not rule out a high amplitude turn into a colder phase 7 later in December.   

[Daniel Boone]

I think we all agree that without HLB this Winter is basically set in stone mild overall. 

     When the Greenland block set up, I was concerned that the AO wasn't also going decently negative. I think we need them both to counter all the warm drivers with sustainability. 

     IF a SSW does occur, it would assist in forcing a favorable HLB Regime i.m.o..

     How long that would last against so many hostile variables ?., God knows.

     The MJO is, of course the other driver that can help but, can also hurt, as we all know. 

[Mr. Kevin]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

And while we are on the topic of the MJO, there is still not a definitive trend on its loop into phase 7.  In general, looks like it takes a turn into phase 7.  Whether it loops back into 6 is a question.  Whether it loops into 7, back into 6, and back into 7(hence a loop) is a question.  However, I would not rule out a high amplitude turn into a colder phase 7 later in December.   

All we have is optimism, which is good. I just want our opportunities for at least a few winter events. I know we have a long ways to go, unfortunately. Without HLB, it will be almost impossible, especially down south

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

All we have is optimism, which is good. I just want our opportunities for at least a few winter events. I know we have a long ways to go, unfortunately. Without HLB, it will be almost impossible, especially down south

NE TN and the Plateau have a tad more wiggle room(different formula) than most in the forum area.  The mountains here have already received snow - without blocking or a favorable MJO if I remember correctly.  Still, we have some winters which were goose eggs.  I think we get our chances.  Nobody knows at this point.