Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 I think we can deal with the Aleutian ridge. It is actually common during many good La Nina winters. The GFS for the past 2-3 runs has shown it basically working to connect over the top with the NAO. If that occurs the TPV will be forced south into a broad trough between the Rockies and the Apps. I take the 0z GFS as is....that would likely be an overrunning event if real. Great discussion, everyone.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 0z ICON and CMC sneak a cold front through on the 29th. Worth noting, because that is different than what we have been seeing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 0z EPS wasn't bad. Cold arrives as we approach hr 300, potential overrunning set up unfolding around then. Most of the country outside Florida was BN as deep cold from the west pressed towards us. Hopefully it continues to progress in time. There also seems to be some debate on where the MJO has been. The CPC has had it in 7 for a while now. The Australians have had it in 6 and it seems to have barely crossed into 7 the last couple of days. The weather is definitely more reflective of 6. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 The 6z GFS is nearly a pattern reversal to an eastern trough. The Euro control was nearly the same thing. Really good trends in modeling overnight. After reading John’s post, I agree. Looks like a 6 which is now moving to a 7. Have to think the typhoon was causing havoc last week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Waiting for the MJO to roll right now. We may be looking at a pattern change, but more likely a relaxation of some sorts and full change later in January. However, what is on most modeling this morning is the first hints of the current pattern beginning to break down. WxBell still has the PNA negative on its run, but that is a PNA ridge that pops on the 6z GFS. Oddly, and I thought about this yesterday, but wasn't brave enough to post it. It is like the -NAO(which normally we want very strong) is causing a buckle which locks the cold out West, because it is in conjunction with the Aleutians high. When the NAO gets out of the way, it is like a dam breaking. That said, it does its work by forcing the cold south. Without it, the cold would slide across the northern border states. Not saying that is the gospel, but it did cross my mind. Reading through the MA forum which has a great winter thread going as well, they mention the NAO is more strongly correlated to eastern cold during mid and later winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Appreciate all of the play by play from y'all. There seems to be much disappointment/frustration out there from many on our current pattern and the forecast for the next two weeks. However, my hope is that we can time up a slow tour through MJO phases 8 - 2 just in time for our peak winter period in mid to late January. All those of us outside the mountains need is a week or two of the goods. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Have to think the typhoon was causing havoc last week. Don't look now, but the 6z GFS sees another one: That run has more of a recurve than last week's so maybe, if it forms and recurves, it can shake up the north Pac? Or maybe it reinforces the same old, same old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 I will say not too many EPS members see a TC in that area, but some do. Prolly a low risk right now, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 GFS looks like it is cooking up a fantasy storm at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 I suppose, a way we could get some wintry weather with even this look: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 22, 2021 Author Share Posted December 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I suppose, a way we could get some wintry weather with even this look: Plenty of cold air in our source regions as well. Pretty drastic cold front pushes through New Years Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I will say not too many EPS members see a TC in that area, but some do. Prolly a low risk right now, but something to watch. You'd think those SSTs there would be cooled enuff from all the tcs there recently that development there would cease, or at least weaken their strength if they move thru there. Confounded area! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 7 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Don't look now, but the 6z GFS sees another one: That run has more of a recurve than last week's so maybe, if it forms and recurves, it can shake up the north Pac? Or maybe it reinforces the same old, same old. And that would make some since given what we are seeing in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Been out finishing up some Christmas shopping. Modeling still looking good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 GFS is cooking something up inside d10 now. This trough is heading in at D9 and west coast ridging is popping. That low is spreading winter weather across Texas. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Turned into a monster winter storm for the deep south. Looks 2018ish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 I still feel a ice/sleet event somewhere close to our area, providing we have enough cold air. Pattern is tough right now for sure, but we got to try to be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Three straight days of BN temps at TRI. Will today be a fourth? Modeling pretty much nailed the pattern just prior to Christmas as it did the days prior to the 20th. It likely will nail the pattern after Christmas as well from the 25th to the 31st. We are now watching the pattern just after New Year's. See John's post above. Welcome to the world of extremes. Base warm pattern with interludes of cold(maybe severe cold at times). What we need, to grab a quote from another thread, is an active STJ. Dry conditions are our main nemesis, not just the longer interludes warm wx. Looks like we get another amplification of the eastern trough around Jan 3rd. That looks like a window with some potential. Modeling has been fairly adamant that we will see a trough roll through then. So, it is progressing along. What happens after that potential cold shot is open for much debate. January is one of those months that doesn't require strong BN temps for snow. Even slightly AN temps will get the job done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 52 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Three straight days of BN temps at TRI. Will today be a fourth? Modeling pretty much nailed the pattern just prior to Christmas as it did the days prior to the 20th. It likely will nail the pattern after Christmas as well from the 25th to the 31st. We are now watching the pattern just after New Year's. See John's post above. Welcome to the world of extremes. Base warm pattern with interludes of cold(maybe severe cold at times). What we need, to grab a quote from another thread, is an active STJ. Dry conditions are our main nemesis, not just the longer interludes warm wx. Looks like we get another amplification of the eastern trough around Jan 3rd. That looks like a window with some potential. Modeling has been fairly adamant that we will see a trough roll through then. So, it is progressing along. What happens after that potential cold shot is open for much debate. January is one of those months that doesn't require strong BN temps for snow. Even slightly AN temps will get the job done. Nice to see modeling stay consistent with a southern storm around the 3-5th of January. Been showing up on modeling for 2-3 days now. Definitely something to keep an eye on going forward. Also- If it makes anyone feel better , Chicago is about to set a record for longest amount of time between measurable snow events. There around 215 days straight without a trace or more of snow. I only say this to show how hard it’s been to get snow the past year in areas that normally receive a lot of snow yearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 12z GFS... Much different run. Cold has come earlier. EPO ridge is in place after the 1st and AN heights into the GOA. Good trends overall. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z GFS... Much different run. Cold has come earlier. EPO ridge is in place after the 1st and AN heights into the GOA. Good trends overall. Carvers, that's what our thoughts have been, once that block is realized. Maybe, some of the younger crowd will take note. As you and a couple other Veterans have basically preached; Models are not good with blocking and generally(although,not always as we've saw in recent years with a SER,-NAO connect)adjust as they are more realized in range. Happens more times than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Is the MJO really moving that much or is this constructive interference from a EW? The Equatorial subsurface temp has rose the last couple days and you also saw the SOI flip flop back into a more NINO but now its back to NINA so it had a brief hit on NINA but it still looks rather healthy. My bet is it will turn possibly cold into the 2nd week of Jan., but nothing seems to be locking nothing in.CFS seems to want the MJO to strengthen back into Africa into Jan then into the IO after but i wouldnt rely on that right now. Mid 70's possible Christmas day,possible severe weather next weekwhat season is this? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Carvers, that's what our thoughts have been, once that block is realized. Maybe, some of the younger crowd will take note. As you and a couple other Veterans have basically preached; Models are not good with blocking and generally(although,not always as we've saw in recent years with a SER,-NAO connect)adjust as they are more realized in range. Happens more times than not. Interestingly, the 18z GFS is sort of doubling down on the same deal. It is hammering the Aleutian high(edit). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Nashville's record high was 76 in 2016 Christmas day,,hope you didnt put those shorts away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 The 18z GEFS is how winter gets unleashed for a time. Impressive trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 294 on the GFS is how this gets done...just an example and not the gospel. This is the second straight run with something similar. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Impressive, impressive run of the 18z GFS. I also didn't think the Euro Weeklies looked half bad. Its control looks strikingly similar to the current GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 LOL. That is an awesome run. TPV gets trapped and the dam breaks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Trough eventually lifts out, but I am starting to wonder if we might be seeing the initial seeds planted for a pattern reset. GFS is likely early, but it has hammered the Aleutian ridge during several recent runs. Not saying the reset will be any better. The LR result of that is the PV lifts northward, and we are left with zonal. Nor worried, that will very likely not be the same next run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 I like your optimism Carver, but I really truly believe winter is over already other than a few cool days behind a front. Pattern is locked in and we got alot against us in terms of any significant cold. Nothing we can do about it. I will be shocked beyond belief if we get a big shakeup this winter. Sorry to be negative guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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