Daniel Boone Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z GEFS and 12z GEPS are worlds apart. GEFS is warmer. GEPS is colder. The 12z GEPS looks like the 12z GFS. They are rather confused, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: They are rather confused, lol Still got a ways to go if we ever get there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, Mr. Kevin said: Still got a ways to go if we ever get there Yeah. However, on the plus side, Models tend to underestimate the effects of the -NAO So, things may actually look up faster than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 29 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah. However, on the plus side, Models tend to underestimate the effects of the -NAO So, things may actually look up faster than expected. Bamwx does a long range video on YouTube but I can't find it. It was posted on southern.wx. If the cold keeps getting delayed, it's not going to happen. No sugar coating it. He mentioned a +eamt event that should push a front through around the first, to me, it's a very transitory front, but with such a negative pna, who knows. I'm not a big fan of laniña btw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 16 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: Bamwx does a long range video on YouTube but I can't find it. It was posted on southern.wx. If the cold keeps getting delayed, it's not going to happen. No sugar coating it. He mentioned a +eamt event that should push a front through around the first, to me, it's a very transitory front, but with such a negative pna, who knows. I'm not a big fan of laniña btw One positive, BAMWx is almost universally incorrect in long range forecasting. I'll be stunned if it doesn't get cold and snow at some point. My worst winter ever is around 5 inches of snow. The first day of winter is waaaaaaaaaaaay too early to cancel winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 The euro was beautiful..... for the West lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Euro control worth a look.... Word from an old timer. Webber, Cosgrove, and HM. Roll with those guys. I don't think folks sugar coat in this sub-forum. We just generally don't get overly worked up by a warm pattern. We are from the Upper South - just as slow roll. Cold is never really "pushed back" as it was never real in the first place. We are dealing with computer models which are at the mercy of programing and quality/quantity of data input. When looking at modeling, what we are trying to find is the reality of what will come. If given 25 outcomes, what we are trying to do is to find the one which makes the most sense and will close resemble future wx. So, things aren't really being pushed back or delayed. They just weren't real to begin with. But I do understand that we don't really have a better word/phrase for it. I use the term as well. Modeling is all over the place right now. The Euro control looked very much like the 12z GFS in terms of the surface temp result over the Lower 48. It didn't get there the same way, however. In fact, the control looks an awful lot like the Canadian. I mean it drops 6-12" of snow over the eastern half of the state late in the run. The entire forum area received snow with that slp. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 December 1984 (there have been multiple happenings this late fall and early winter that have lined up with 1984/85) was as unrelenting a torch as we've seen in December. It continued into early January too. New Years Day came in around 70 degrees across the area. There were 15 days of +15 or more days between December 10th and early January with only 1 day BN in a 3+ week stretch. When the pattern flipped, it flipped hard and we know what happened after. As I said a few weeks go, if the cold is still weeks away by mid January I'll feel less good, but still note we've seen severe cold and winter weather outbreaks arrive in February. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: One positive, BAMWx is almost universally incorrect in long range forecasting. I'll be stunned if it doesn't get cold and snow at some point. My worst winter ever is around 5 inches of snow. The first day of winter is waaaaaaaaaaaay too early to cancel winter. I very much agree on all points. I just don't understand that kind of talk(cancel winter and giving up) on Dec 22nd. I mean this winter could be a dud, but very unlikely with the cold sitting in Canada right now. We literally have the Canadian ensemble, the 12z GFS, and the Euro control showing Arctic outbreaks. There are some obvious models/runs which are totally the opposite. But there is a ton of model spread right now. I suspect we see a sever Arctic outbreak this winter but I could be wrong. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I think it worthy to discuss the warm solutions for sure, but ignoring the extreme cold solutions is probably unwise. It is worth remembering that the Jan 1-5 timeframe is still in the d10-15 range. It is also worth noting that the only ensemble model with 500 heights AN after 300 is the GEFS. Who knows where this goes, but that isn't exactly a warm set of ensembles after 300. Very possible(maybe even likely) they bust, but we can't ignore colder solutions of the 12z GFS, 12z Euro control, 12z GEPS, and I also thought the EPS looked decent after 300 as well(cold centered out West by bleeding west). I tend to agree with warmer solutions right now as trends support that. I keep saying this, but this reminds me of the run-up to last year's cold/snow event in the middle and western areas of the forum. With that blocking up top and the extreme cold in Canada, I expect the wild, wild swings in modeling to continue. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I’m starting to think BAMs whole free social media presence is like a misdirection campaign to manipulate weather/ natgas energy weenies on Twitter and they save the good stuff for their highest $$$ paying clients. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 16 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I’m starting to think BAMs whole free social media presence is like a misdirection campaign to manipulate weather/ natgas energy weenies on Twitter and they save the good stuff for their highest $$$ paying clients. I am tempted to post the temp anomaly map for the Euro control at 360...super tempted. The entire US is much below normal. Looks like the Canadian ensemble, and 12z GFS. I lean warm, but barely warm in my thinking. I wouldn't be shocked for the overall high temp in January and low temp in January to have 80 degrees between them. All it is going to take is one strong cutter into the Plains....and it is going to get super cold here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 53 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I am tempted to post the temp anomaly map for the Euro control at 360...super tempted. The entire US is much below normal. Looks like the Canadian ensemble, and 12z GFS. I lean warm, but barely warm in my thinking. I wouldn't be shocked for the overall high temp in January and low temp in January to have 80 degrees between them. All it is going to take is one strong cutter into the Plains....and it is going to get super cold here. The real concern I have is when we loose the -nao and ao, we have ZERO chance at that point and it makes sense. -pna is too negative currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 And the GFS at 18z is back on the cold train. That is quite a cold look around Jan 3rd. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 The 18z GFS has the cold intrusion now on Jan 2nd. We will see if that holds during future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 18z GFS again moves the Aleutian ridge....this time it builds monster heights into Canada. Looks very much like the Canadian ensemble and maybe even the Euro control. Good trend continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 After 300, the Alaska ridge slides southwest into the GOA. Cold air jettisoned from the Arctic headed due south. Very cold pattern beginning around 282 for most of the Lower 48. Like a dam breaking that run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 59 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: The real concern I have is when we loose the -nao and ao, we have ZERO chance at that point and it makes sense. -pna is too negative currently I’m not sure why anyone in the southeast/mid south would have winter concerns on Dec 21st? I guess some people lean optimistic and some lean pessimistic, so to each their own. Worrying about winter, before Christmas, isn’t even on my radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 31 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: After 300, the Alaska ridge slides southwest into the GOA. Cold air jettisoned from the Arctic headed due south. Very cold pattern beginning around 282 for most of the Lower 48. Like a dam breaking that run. Not had time to look, but a ridge SE of the Aleutians, closer to the Gulf of Alaska is Nina climo vs one hanging out in the Central and Western Aleutians. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 16 minutes ago, John1122 said: Not had time to look, but a ridge SE of the Aleutians, closer to the Gulf of Alaska is Nina climo vs one hanging out in the Central and Western Aleutians. Good point. This is the most recent update. What do you make of the third bulleted point in conjunction with Aleutians ridge? MJO indices continue to depict an enhanced West Pacific signal, and upper-level velocity potential anomalies show the enhanced phase crossing the central Pacific. The amplitude of the MJO has decreased, and the RMM-based MJO index depicts little eastward propagation over the past week due to interference from the La Niña base state and Rossby wave activity. The GEFS and ECMWF ensembles depict persistent enhancement over the West Pacific, with little to no eastward propagation. It is possible that this signal may reflect a temporary weakening of the La Niña atmospheric response. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the potential for this MJO event to remain coherent as it crosses the Pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 We will see if it is right, but the 18z GEFS is an outlier now among modeling...It may be leading the pack. Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 2 hours ago, tnweathernut said: I’m not sure why anyone in the southeast/mid south would have winter concerns on Dec 21st? I guess some people lean optimistic and some lean pessimistic, so to each their own. Worrying about winter, before Christmas, isn’t even on my radar. I don’t intend to speak for everyone…but I think part of it is the simple desire for “seasons in seasons”, and the fact that the shortest days plus the holidays are in December. You know - Currier and Ives snowfalls, It’s a Wonderful Life winter scenes, etc. In JJA, you can always count on consistent summer-like weather. It would be nice to be able to count on consistent winter-like weather in DJF. Unfortunately, reality isn’t so kind. Of course everything is relative…but I live in far NE IL, and I get furious and anxious every year when we don’t start building a snowpack early in December, to take advantage of the low sun angle. I actually have to step away from my love of winter for awhile each year, because I get so worked up about it. We get good stretches of cold and snow each winter, but not consistent enough like 45N or north in the Midwest and Plains. As I like to say, we are on the wrong side of the extreme Midwest winter gradient. To me, winter is about consistency - the beauty, like a mindset and a calm and peaceful way of life…not just single events/storms. I plan to move to the upper Midwest when I retire…hopefully soon. Hope you don’t mind my comments here…I definitely enjoy the good people and discussion in this sub-forum. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 38 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: I don’t intend to speak for everyone…but I think part of it is the simple desire for “seasons in seasons”, and the fact that the shortest days plus the holidays are in December. You know - Currier and Ives snowfalls, It’s a Wonderful Life winter scenes, etc. In JJA, you can always count on consistent summer-like weather. It would be nice to be able to count on consistent winter-like weather in DJF. Unfortunately, reality isn’t so kind. Of course everything is relative…but I live in far NE IL, and I get furious and anxious every year when we don’t start building a snowpack early in December, to take advantage of the low sun angle. I actually have to step away from my love of winter for awhile each year, because I get so worked up about it. We get good stretches of cold and snow each winter, but not consistent enough like 45N or north in the Midwest and Plains. As I like to say, we are on the wrong side of the extreme Midwest winter gradient. To me, winter is about consistency - the beauty, like a mindset and a calm and peaceful way of life…not just single events/storms. I plan to move to the upper Midwest when I retire…hopefully soon. Hope you don’t mind my comments here…I definitely enjoy the good people and discussion in this sub-forum. Similiar thoughts here, winter means alot to me. I will schedule most every free minute sking, hiking, or chasing a cold snowy setting. My expectations probably differ from those in the forum in that I can get to 4000' plus elevation across multiple states with about an hour drive, something i try to take advantage of. I definitely don't like to punt the month of December for the high mountains, meteorological winter or not. I am pretty sure I haven't read anyone post winter cancel either (?). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 32 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: I don’t intend to speak for everyone…but I think part of it is the simple desire for “seasons in seasons”, and the fact that the shortest days plus the holidays are in December. You know - Currier and Ives snowfalls, It’s a Wonderful Life winter scenes, etc. In JJA, you can always count on consistent summer-like weather. It would be nice to be able to count on consistent winter-like weather in DJF. Unfortunately, reality isn’t so kind. Of course everything is relative…but I live in far NE IL, and I get furious and anxious every year when we don’t start building a snowpack early in December, to take advantage of the low sun angle. I actually have to step away from my love of winter for awhile each year, because I get so worked up about it. We get good stretches of cold and snow each winter, but not consistent enough like 45N or north in the Midwest and Plains. As I like to say, we are on the wrong side of the extreme Midwest winter gradient. To me, winter is about consistency - the beauty, like a mindset and a calm and peaceful way of life…not just single events/storms. I plan to move to the upper Midwest when I retire…hopefully soon. Hope you don’t mind my comments here…I definitely enjoy the good people and discussion in this sub-forum. Not at all, everyone is welcome here. Appreciate the comments. I grew up near Nashville. I have family from northwest Wisconsin. Spent a lot of mid December to early January’s there as a kid (dad was a school teacher). Being from middle TN heading to snow was always exciting. By the time we left I was always ready to come back to Tennessee. For me, snow loses its luster when it’s there all the time. I genuinely enjoy the tracking as much as the event, and seeing it fall from the sky is always magical for me. Once it’s on the ground I’m ready for the next one, which in the south is never guaranteed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 40 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: I don’t intend to speak for everyone…but I think part of it is the simple desire for “seasons in seasons”, and the fact that the shortest days plus the holidays are in December. You know - Currier and Ives snowfalls, It’s a Wonderful Life winter scenes, etc. In JJA, you can always count on consistent summer-like weather. It would be nice to be able to count on consistent winter-like weather in DJF. Unfortunately, reality isn’t so kind. Of course everything is relative…but I live in far NE IL, and I get furious and anxious every year when we don’t start building a snowpack early in December, to take advantage of the low sun angle. I actually have to step away from my love of winter for awhile each year, because I get so worked up about it. We get good stretches of cold and snow each winter, but not consistent enough like 45N or north in the Midwest and Plains. As I like to say, we are on the wrong side of the extreme Midwest winter gradient. To me, winter is about consistency - the beauty, like a mindset and a calm and peaceful way of life…not just single events/storms. I plan to move to the upper Midwest when I retire…hopefully soon. Hope you don’t mind my comments here…I definitely enjoy the good people and discussion in this sub-forum. Around here not being too cold and not snowing is seasonal. Those days are generally out of the ordinary here. Especially at lower elevations where most people live. Down here we have to hope for the exceptions to go our way. It's been cloudy and 40s/20s today and yesterday was a bit cooler than today. Those are seasonal for here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 5 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: Bamwx does a long range video on YouTube but I can't find it. It was posted on southern.wx. If the cold keeps getting delayed, it's not going to happen. No sugar coating it. He mentioned a +eamt event that should push a front through around the first, to me, it's a very transitory front, but with such a negative pna, who knows. I'm not a big fan of laniña btw I'm not a fan either. Although a weak one as well as weak Nino tend to avg out as our best snow/cold winters. I don't like a strong -PDO Lanina combo. However, my statement on the - NAO has proven to be true time and time again. Models do underestimate its affect much of the time. Hopefully, same case this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 The thing that gets me is how warm this airmass we have had is. I know in and around this area we have shattered several record highs and record low highs as well. This is not a normal pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The thing that gets me is how warm this airmass we have had is. I know in and around this area we have shattered several record highs and record low highs as well. This is not a normal pattern. We've had two really warm overall days. I've still managed 25 or below for the low 11 days this month with one more day at 29. Had two days with 50 for the low and another with 48. Two days of +18 and one +16. Overall +5 for the month. December 1984 was +9. It's maybe the warmest December of my lifetime here that I recall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: We've had two really warm overall days. I've still managed 25 or below for the low 11 days this month with one more day at 29. Had two days with 50 for the low and another with 48. Two days of +18 and one +16. Overall +5 for the month. December 1984 was +9. It's maybe the warmest December of my lifetime here that I recall. LOL that's before my time. We on this east side of the mountains we have set several record highs by several degrees. This seasons PNA is at record negative territory on the west coast and it would take a mighty block up top to beat back the SER. yall can do better than us though because when the cold dumps into the west and we have a strong SER the mountains help keep the cold away. We will see but I don't see the light at the end of the tunnel currently and yes that's being pessimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 40 minutes ago, Met1985 said: LOL that's before my time. We on this east side of the mountains we have set several record highs by several degrees. This seasons PNA is at record negative territory on the west coast and it would take a mighty block up top to beat back the SER. yall can do better than us though because when the cold dumps into the west and we have a strong SER the mountains help keep the cold away. We will see but I don't see the light at the end of the tunnel currently and yes that's being pessimistic. We do need at least a shift with the Aleutian ridge. If the -NAO can help shove that GOM/SE Ridge west n2 the SW, think things will be much better. NW to SE moving Jet with embedded Shtwvs. Several -pdo/nina winters featured that setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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