Winter 2021/22 December Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

VERY concerned right now that we see something similar to last winter.  

Would be interesting if this could take on a more WSW to ENE trajectory, rather than the SSW to NNE of last year. 

I'll go ahead and weenie myself 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Would be interesting if this could take on a more WSW to ENE trajectory, rather than the SSW to NNE of last year. 

I'll go ahead and weenie myself 

LOL.  What is that we say in the SEC, "It just means more."      

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  What is that we say in the SEC, "It just means more."      

There aren't too many posts that actually make me lol. This was one. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I've already broken out the Christmas week beer, so here's a nice NAO GEFS gif trend, as of 18z, to get me back on the rails:

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I've already broken out the Christmas week beer, so here's a nice NAO GEFS gif trend, as of 18z, to get me back on the rails:

Yeah, the 18z GEFS is stout in NAO land.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GEFS is very close to nice winter pattern.  Verbatim it is.

[Mr. Kevin]

The issue we are running into as you know Carver is the cold keeps getting delayed and not moving forward in time yet. I take a freezing drizzle event and be happy for rest of the winter in all seriousness. 

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

The issue we are running into as you know Carver is the cold keeps getting delayed and not moving forward in time yet. I take a freezing drizzle event and be happy for rest of the winter in all seriousness. 

I don't see a delay at this point, but it certainly could happen.  Looks like the Jan 2/3 timeframe has been moving forward nicely during the past several days.  But we have definitely seen cold shots pushed back this winter and during past winters.  Just part of it.  Several days ago, this wasn't even on ensembles and now it is.  I always kind of feel like getting a pattern inside of d10 is key - almost there.  Indeed, the features which will induce blocking are due to begin forming within 2-3 days.   If cold "delays" on modeling, it will often hang up between d10-12 as it comes into focus.  In other words, when that happens it wasn't real in the first place.  The real fun, Mr. Kevin, is tracking a great storm for 10-12 days and have it only turn into a frontal boundary with some backside snow.   Time will tell.  I certainly understand the concern though!!!!

[Mr. Kevin]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I don't see a delay at this point, but it certainly could happen.  Looks like the Jan 2/3 timeframe has been moving forward nicely during the past several days.  But we have definitely seen cold shots pushed back this winter and during past winters.  Just part of it.  Several days ago, this wasn't even on ensembles and now it is.  I always kind of feel like getting a pattern inside of d10 is key - almost there.  Indeed, the features which will induce blocking are due to begin forming within 2-3 days.   If cold "delays" on modeling, it will often hang up between d10-12 as it comes into focus.  In other words, when that happens it wasn't real in the first place.  The real fun, Mr. Kevin, is tracking a great storm for 10-12 days and have it only turn into a frontal boundary with some backside snow.   Time will tell.  I certainly understand the concern though!!!!

I will go out on a limb and say we are due for a major icestorm here. It's been a while. Our biggest ones have been 31-32 range.

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I will go out on a limb and say we are due for a major icestorm here. It's been a while. Our biggest ones have been 31-32 range.

Yeah, the setup on ensembles mildly worries me, especially western areas of the forum.  I also feel like there is a loose connection to big wintertime tornado outbreaks and winter storms following -2-3 weeks later in our regions.  
 

 

[PowellVolz]

Yeah, the setup on ensembles mildly worries me, especially western areas of the forum.  I also feel like there is a loose connection to big wintertime tornado outbreaks and winter storms following -2-3 weeks later in our regions.  
 
 

Tornadoes in 93’ around the middle of February. The one from Oak Ridge, Powell to Halls missed me by 1/2 mile.


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[BuCoVaWx]

53 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Tornadoes in 93’ around the middle of February. The one from Oak Ridge, Powell to Halls missed me by 1/2 mile.


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Then we all know what happened around 3 weeks later. Don't think I'll ever witness a blizzard like that again in my lifetime. Sadly I was only 9 years old lol.

 

[Mr. Kevin]

3 minutes ago, BuCoVaWx said:

Then we all know what happened around 3 weeks later. Don't think I'll ever witness a blizzard like that again in my lifetime. Sadly I was only 9 years old lol.

 

I was like 450 miles too far nw for that blizzard of 93

[Holston_River_Rambler]

TBH I thought Jeff was kind of tongue-in-cheek joking when he said the convection was "reset[ting]" over the Maritime Continent area, but it really looks like it did just that as the typhoon was heading west. I always thought the MJO couldn't move backwards, but it looks like, at least in terms of whatever it does to modulate the the N Hemisphere's pattern, it did just that. 

I guess I just assumed that after the a stall with the typhoon, it would pick up where it left off in the western Pac. Maybe 3 steps forwards and two steps back is the dance it wants to run this winter. 

Still hugging the BOM this AM:

 

But the Euro et al. ensembles ain't budging:

The GEFS seems to have finally straightened out (sort of anyway) whatever kinks it had for the past couple of days:

 

I guess there's a  scenario in there somewhere where it doesn't get to phase 8 until the end of the first week of January and takes until mid February to reemerge in 4 or 5? 

But beware, the EPS shows the possibility for small TCs to sap it a bit once the convection gets back to the Western Pac:

Maybe little ones like that won't do much damage to it, but I really don't know. Also, I suspect talking about possibilities with tropical critters post day 10 doesn't have a lot of certainty. It seems like the EPS sees a general area of lower pressures approaching 150w, but only at the end of its tun. 

Up top, the GFS has been showing some warming at 10hPa late in its recent runs:

 

The Euro is showing similar warming, just over Greenland at 240 hours. No splits in the SPV, but maybe "unsettled" would be a good word, if i were writing a forecast discussion for Sandy Claus flying up in the strat. 

Nothing looks too different in the ensembles this AM, but someone else might have more to say. 

[Bigbald]

Seems to be pretty strong agreement with 0z gem and 6z gfs for extreme warmth in the 7-12 day territory.  Not feeling great about this winter when we start eating into January.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just saw that griteater had another post on twitter yesterday. He (I think he did this research anyway) shows years with MJO stalls like we're seeing now:

For those without twitter, here is the pertinent image: 

 

[PowellVolz]

Then we all know what happened around 3 weeks later. Don't think I'll ever witness a blizzard like that again in my lifetime. Sadly I was only 9 years old lol.
 

I was a Jr in HS. One of the best times of my life. Buddy of mine had a lot of acres. A bunch of us met up over there and we stayed for several days. 4 wheelers, sledding, big camp fire. Looking back we are lucky one of us didn’t get hurt with some of the stuff we did. My buddy was into pipe bombs and explosives. We would go back in the woods and blow tree stumps out of the ground. We all thought he was crazy, he now works for the DOD


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[Carvers Gap]

The time frame just after Christmas has generally been warm on modeling for several runs.  No surprise there.   The time frame prior to Christmas it was modeled cooler than it will actually be, and that will be a bust.  Less warm for sure, but just one BN day here at TRI. 

All three ensembles have a similar look in the 500 pattern in the same time frame as yesterday.  GEFS is probably 24 hours slower.  The 0z GEFS looked not great.  The 6z returned to form.  The MJO is definitely hitting a wall.  Whether it stays there, no idea.  Again, LR modeling has done really well for several weeks now in picking up the long wave pattern.  Ensembles look good this morning.  The 6z GEFS looks about as good as one can draw it up.  We will see today how modeling reacts to the MJO staying in 7 longer.  One note, if I am remembering correctly, the EPS/Euro was adamant that the MJO would loop back into 6.  It didn't.   However, the Euro/EPS has been correct about the warmer temps.  So, taking a blend of the MJO between the GEFS and EPS is prob not a bad idea.

I think this winter is just repeating a lot of what occurred last winter without the late December cold snap.   I strongly suspect that the cold finds its way eastward at some point.  98-99 certainly lurks as a dud analog, but there are many which support a colder push eastward in a quick reversal of previous weeks' warmth.  We should all be thankful the MJO isn't stuck in 3-4-5-6.  We often talk about climatology.  January is often our coldest month of the year(not speaking of norms but actual temps).  I suspect it will live up to that again this year.  North of I-40 we can get by with temps slightly AN.  

I am not convinced the MJO takes the full circuit 8-1-2.  However, as La Nina wanes later this winter, it might.  More likely it would loop back through the COD into warmer phases during mid-Jan.  Late Jan and Feb could see a full circuit.  I think the counter balance will be the NAO region.  The SER will fight, but the storm track should get suppressed once it is fully established, and that should allow periods of cold to push eastward.

BTW, I don't think the potential cold snap in early January is a pattern change.  Looks like the pattern will be...cold builds in the West and then pushes eastward.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the cold linger in the east at some point per November's pattern.  Just don't see that yet...though the GEFS at 6z is close.  The Canadian is outstanding...just not sure I buy that at this point.    

Again, MBY doesn't really see snow prior to Jan.  Past decade has really had more snow prior to January than at any point I can remember.  IMBY, winter is Jan-mid March.  Way too early for me to worry.

Long post which didn't say a lot, but there ya go.

[Carvers Gap]

37 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Just saw that griteater had another post on twitter yesterday. He (I think he did this research anyway) shows years with MJO stalls like we're seeing now:

For those without twitter, here is the pertinent image: 

 

Doesn't look uncommon at all for weak La Ninas to stall.  Good nugget right there.  98-99 was one of those late 90s winters which I don't remember fondly.  I remember the grass never really turning brown during one of those - think it was that one.  The West was coming off several bad years of drought. Thing to remember there is that we had several really strong El Nino's and a flipped AMO which didn't allow for a lot of variation other than warmth.  Cool post.  In the age of social media, a 30 day stall would be fun...only to see it snap back cold after everyone had given up.  If the weather has taught us anything it Is to expect the unexpected.

[Daniel Boone]

'71-72 and 74-75 have been coming to my mind lately. 98-99 was actually similar to those although at least there was a 4-6" Snowfall Dec. 30, 98. 

    71-72 had an arctic outbreak in February with a coastal developing on its heels dumping a major snowfall from our area NEward.

     74-75 only had 1 decent snowfall in lower eles. That being in March .( 5" in Pennington gap). There were a couple Snowstorms east of the Apps from Coastals in Feb...As I remember, Asheville did quite well with those.

    Also of note, March '99 produced about 6" in Pennington gap from 2 events. So, may be some late action this year IF follows similar path. Tbh, hopefully not. If the MJO can make it to 8 then cod. I think this one should fair better.

[Carvers Gap]

IF the ensembles are correct, we should begin to see the operationals spit out some runs that look similar.  The 12z GFS is a massive break from its earlier runs...adios Aleutians Ridge.  Massive block up top.  Trough should come eastward.

[Carvers Gap]

That would be a -AO/-NAO couplet on the 12z GFS.  Doubt that is right, but there it is beginning around 300.

[Carvers Gap]

Actually that couplet begins around the 280 mark.  The destruction of the Aleutian Ridge begins about 240.  This not just an evolution which begins past 300.  Basically, the -NAO region retrogrades.  The Pac Ridge connects, gets pulled eastward, and that is how you switch a pattern.  NOT saying that is going to happen, but it is a potential.  We all need to be rooting for that trend to continue!!!!

[Carvers Gap]

That is a large scale shift after 240 - massive.  That is what HLB can do in response to an uncooperative MJO.  

[Carvers Gap]

Updated with better graphic....Here you go...12z compared to 6z...d10.5-15.5.  This is 5d mean.  The actual final outcome late in the run is far more impressive than this.  I like using a 5d mean in order to show this isn't just a one or two day change.  This was a wholesale change which means it is an outlier until it gets support.  The Aleutian Ridge leaves and the cold heads SE.  That is how you draw up an Arctic outbreak.  Again, NOT SAYING this is going to happen, but it is always wise to pay attention when a model switches up like that.    

[Daniel Boone]

26 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Actually that couplet begins around the 280 mark.  The destruction of the Aleutian Ridge begins about 240.  This not just an evolution which begins past 300.  Basically, the -NAO region retrogrades.  The Pac Ridge connects, gets pulled eastward, and that is how you switch a pattern.  NOT saying that is going to happen, but it is a potential.  We all need to be rooting for that trend to continue!!!!

Definitely what to hope for brother !

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

Definitely what to hope for brother !

Yeah, it may be gone next run as that is a major flip which leaves me very wary.  Let's see if that looks gets a bit consistent over time....or not.  Doubt we see that extreme each run...and that is extreme.  But we can hope that is a hint that there is some restructuring about to occur up top.  I haven't looked at the strat on that run, but guessing it is on fire.

[Carvers Gap]

12z GEFS and 12z GEPS are worlds apart.  GEFS is warmer.  GEPS is colder.  The 12z GEPS looks like the 12z GFS.

[John1122]

Webber was posting yesterday that to look for any movement in the Aleutian Ridge to see winter unleashed. He said it didn't even matter which direction it moved, as long as it did it would change the longwave pattern and send cold East. 

[Daniel Boone]

Exactly. Makes sense. If we can get that Neg. NAO AO Combo over the top connection to it, I think we'll be in business.