Winter 2021/22 December Thread

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

If AN heights in Alaska happens, then game on for sure. If not game off lol. The Pacific is so important in sensible weather. Alutian ridging is the big thorn for sure so far imo

Not through with the run yet, but looks like the cold is going to get kicked eastward on the ensemble.  

[Mr. Kevin]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Not through with the run yet, but looks like the cold is going to get kicked eastward on the ensemble.  

Not sure where u get your stuff, I'm assuming wxbell. At tropicaltidbits, the gefs was done an HR ago lol. The graphics arent as good as wxbell

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Not sure where u get your stuff, I'm assuming wxbell. At tropicaltidbits, the gefs was done an HR ago lol. The graphics arent as good as wxbell

I use Pivotal, WxBell, and TT to name a few.  I usually watch the models run on Wx Bell, because it is easier to watch trends.  The 18z GEFS is a great winter weather pattern after 300.  Flipped back from 6z/12z to 0z.  Not often you see large scale features bouncing around that much over NA on an ensemble.  

[Mr. Kevin]

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I use Pivotal, WxBell, and TT to name a few.  I usually watch the models run on Wx Bell, because it is easier to watch trends.  The 18z GEFS is a great winter weather pattern after 300.  Flipped back from 6z/12z to 0z.  Not often you see large scale features bouncing around that much over NA on an ensemble.  

That was mentioned on Twitter earlier about inconsistentcy right now

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GEFS is how you would draw up a great winter wx pattern.  NO IDEA if it stays there.  Prob will change several times more.  High in the GOA and building into Canada.  NAO is textbook.  There is some connection between the Alaskan and NAO block.  

[Carvers Gap]

0z GFS is a vast improvement through 300. Snow(minimal but was a ridge earlier)threat for KY and SW VA on the 30th. 

[Carvers Gap]

Honestly, that is super close to an long duration over running event.  Not quite there yesterday, but a strung out front with ample precip.  Night and day to earlier runs.

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z GFS is how one would expect that type of pattern to be...cold with multiple chances for ice/snow.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z GFS, and I have low confidence in any model right now due to huge swings, is basically showing what occurred last winter.  The cold presses and multiple waves run it.  That is the best run of the season so far.  And with a block in place, that is the potential that is there...suppressed storm track with cold coming eastward in waves.

[AMZ8990]

7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 0z GFS, and I have low confidence in any model right now due to huge swings, is basically showing what occurred last winter.  The cold presses and multiple waves run it.  That is the best run of the season so far.  And with a block in place, that is the potential that is there...suppressed storm track with cold coming eastward in waves.

Good stuff, Carver.  Definitely looks like we could have a shot at something in the beginning of January.  long way off but there are definitely signs that have me optimistic.  

[Carvers Gap]

Been up late at a veterinary hospital and up early!   Things this AM look much better than 12z yesterday in regards to the LR pattern.  Ensembles are workable. A lot of this hinges on which area of AN heights is stronger.  Need both to weaken or the NAO to be stronger.  Most importantly, need the big area of AN heights in the PAC to weaken or move closer to the coast.  Those two scenarios bring the cold eastward.

[Met1985]

My thing is the MJO is just not going to move for us. Seems like we are back peddling again with it being stuck in phase 7. I know feedback issues and such but like last year it looks like cold dumps out west then may bleed east. We will see.

[Carvers Gap]

What is showing up on modeling is a gradient winter storm track.  It is WAY out there so please take with a grain of salt.  It is likely that gradient is not in the right place.  If modeling is just now catching the strength of the NAO, could be more suppressed.  Also could trend north if the model is overplaying the NAO.  Looks awfully familiar to last year.  

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

My thing is the MJO is just not going to move for us. Seems like we are back peddling again with it being stuck in phase 7. I know feedback issues and such but like last year it looks like cold dumps out west then may bleed east. We will see.

John had a good post earlier about phase 7. 

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

John had a good post earlier about phase 7. 

For what it turns into in January? Yeah I saw that. Hoping things pan out for at least a chance or two of snow during this pattern break. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

For what it turns into in January? Yeah I saw that. Hoping things pan out for at least a chance or two of snow during this pattern break. 

No idea.  @John1122 found the info.  He had some great comments, so I will let him clarify.  I would suspect that helps us early in Jan, and then flips to a hindrance.

[Carvers Gap]

Interesting to see the 6z CFSv2 move back to a colder look after the first.  Anyone know if there is another MJO source as the CPC is not updating for American modeling?   Looks like a graphics glitch.  I can always just look at it on modeling, but just too lazy to do so.  The plot is much easier.  Plus, you can see where each ensemble strand is.

[John1122]

These are the  MJO phase posts I've been talking about. I misremembered about phase 8, it's the coldest at low amplitude per GAWX. 7 isn't bad though. According to Larry(GAWX) over a 40 year period in January in Atlanta while he's been a weather observer. He said 7-8 low amp are his favorite for winter temps in the Southeast but that 1-2 were also good.  The graphic is Webber's NC snow event chart by phase/ENSO. The drivers can be much different for the other side of the Apps, but cold often arrives here before there. Occasionally they can get CAD when we have cold rain.

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS has single digits in NE TN in early January behind a very strong trough amplification.  Starting to see some of those runs now.   GEFS doesn't look too bad as well.

[Carvers Gap]

Great run of the 12z GEFS and GEPS ensembles.  Canadian was bitterly cold with -10 departures from normal at times.  @Holston_River_Rambler, we need some GIFS.  LOL.

[Carvers Gap]

Compliments of the MA forum....I'm just gonna leave this right here for you all to interpret.  This explains the last 24 hours pretty much.  

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

we need some GIFS

Here ya go:

 GEFS, GEPS, and EPS:

 

 

I have to admit the past 36 hours or so kind of spooked me a little bit and the end of the EPS at 12z ain't helping

 

 

The control has my favorite flood pattern to boot:

 

Fortunately all this is still out past 10 days and maybe the MJO has finally reset, and we won't get another TC, and it will finally make it past 7. I'm hugging the BOM for now:

Not a bad convection flare up NE of New Guinea this PM:

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Euro Weeklies 30 day temps from Jan 3 to Feb2 are normal.  Intrusions of cold and a SER in the mix of course!   Nice run.  

[Carvers Gap]

And precip is above normal with seasonal Jan temps.  We take.

[Carvers Gap]

14 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here ya go:

 GEFS, GEPS, and EPS:

 

 

I have to admit the past 36 hours or so kind of spooked me a little bit and the end of the EPS at 12z ain't helping

 

 

The control has my favorite flood pattern to boot:

 

Fortunately all this is still out past 10 days and maybe the MJO has finally reset, and we won't get another TC, and it will finally make it past 7. I'm hugging the BOM for now:

Not a bad convection flare up NE of New Guinea this PM:

 

 

 

 The Austrialian MJO looks great.  Looks like maybe a seasonal Jan.  Someone at CPC has to be smiling after that Jan map.  Cause I bet they were sweating after that 12z suite yesterday!!!!

[Mr. Kevin]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

 The Austrialian MJO looks great.  Looks like maybe a seasonal Jan.  Someone at CPC has to be smiling after that Jan map.  Cause I bet they were sweating after that 12z suite yesterday!!!!

SW energy ejecting out IF enough cold air is available should cause ice and sleet concerns for some

[Carvers Gap]

29 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

SW energy ejecting out IF enough cold air is available should cause ice and sleet concerns for some

If the CPC is correct, it will be available.  Now, timing is another discussion completely.  Bigger concern, again, is that systems producing precip are infrequent.  That will make timing cold/precip much more difficult.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

38 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

should cause ice and sleet concerns for some

Mr Kevin is a prophet:

 

[Carvers Gap]

Interestingly, LR guidance(to quote someone from the MA) nailed the long wave pattern we are currently in.  Sure, the details were lacking and details MATTER in weather.  That said, I feel like the long wave pattern for January....if I had to make a call today...troughs are going to likely roll through and some cold ones at that during the first half of January.  Could it LR guidance bust?  Sure, we live in the subtropics, and there is a strong argument for warmth as well.  We don't live in Minnesota or interior Maine or Montana where snow is the norm.  Rain is the norm here.  So, and to paraphrase what PSU said in the MA forum, we are looking for windows.  The window during the next couple of days didn't work out, BUT the pattern did produce a coastal slp.  Cold wasn't there.  And then we arrive at timing...we just don't know at this range when referencing the 10-15 window.  So to repeat, we know the pattern is base warm right now.  My seasonal forecast is base warm which I put out(ideas and not a true forecast) in June.  Individual months will likely be boom or bust from those ideas.  That said, my January ideas of a warm month are in jeopardy.  I think it will go AN, but in the same way it became apparent December was going to be warm, January kind of looks seasonal to me...and that will get the job done most years.  So, LR guidance in reference to the long wave pattern looks decent, and modeling for that since early December has been pretty good.  Let's see if it holds serve.......

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Mr Kevin is a prophet:

 

Indeed, overruling events began to show up yesterday at 18z and 0z.  VERY concerned right now that we see something similar to last winter.