Winter 2021/22 December Thread

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Misinterpreted ur earlier post irt Grit. Yeah, if that happens with MJO and HLB in place. Just Wow !

I haven't read the post.  I may have misread that as well.  So Grit is not saying orbit across the COD from 7 to 2...but to actually go through 7-8-1-2.  I would tend to agree that is a strong possibility.  Those invests are going to cause havoc, and could even skew the MJO reading.  

Just an in general observation not meant for D-Boone...The 18z GEFS again has a pretty strong signal for a -NAO.  I know there is some discussion about west based or east based.  Get those AN heights(even if not the core) in the Davis Straits and good things begin to happen.  One word of caution to the masses, if the -EPO ridge gets super tall...the trough can still tuck west underneath it.  I saw it occur for nearly two years straight recently.  That tucking of the trough under the EPO ridge could also just be a common error.  Lots to sort through and that is what makes this fun.

[Daniel Boone]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I haven't read the post.  I may have misread that as well.  So Grit is not saying orbit across the COD from 7 to 2...but to actually go through 7-8-1-2.  I would tend to agree that is a strong possibility.  Those invests are going to cause havoc, and could even skew the MJO reading.  

Just an in general observation not meant for D-Boone...The 18z GEFS again has a pretty strong signal for a -NAO.  I know there is some discussion about west based or east based.  Get those AN heights(even if not the core) in the Davis Straits and good things begin to happen.  One word of caution to the masses, if the -EPO ridge gets super tall...the trough can still tuck west underneath it.  I saw it occur for nearly two years straight recently.  That tucking of the trough under the EPO ridge could also just be a common error.  Lots to sort through and that is what makes this fun.

Yeah, I remember that tucking too. Rather odd but yeah, can happen. Seems oddities have happened moreso in recent years. Reminds me of the QBO antics couple years ago.

[Carvers Gap]

If I had to rate my favorite weather patterns, a weak La Nina is at the top.  A weak El Nino(w a proper Pacific SST gradient) would be a close second.  Neither are slam dunks, but they work IMBY.  We are adding a -QBO to the mix this year.  We are also seeing teleconnections, with the exception of the AO which is hit or miss, heading to favorable territory on LR modeling.  The MJO could certainly still balk, but for now, looks headed for 8 and couple that with a slow progression.  There are some good signals there.  

A word of caution to all....the best signals in the world don't make a wx pattern happen.  Some years have great signals and go to crap.  Seems like a recent winter had beautiful teleconnections and LR modeling looked nearly perfect during December.  Then the SSW came and screwed it all to ....well, you know, "Grandma Got Run Over by the Stratosphere."  For now I like the climatology of the La Nina for some periods of severe to seasonal cold.  And seasonal cold will get the job done during late December and early January.  

Flies in the ointment are of course the MJO regions which don't favor convection due to BN SST temps - that is a problem.  The PDO is not in phase for a cold eastern seaboard - that is a problem.

So, again, just blend it....and we get a our shot.  Biggest concern I have is one that doesn't get a lot of pub.  We aren't getting a lot of precip.  Lack of precip IMO is the single greatest cause of BN snow.  Gotta see that pick-up.

[Carvers Gap]

18z CFSv2 doubles down on the duration of cold.  The control of that run is extreme with temps during the coldest week of January(second into third week) nearly 30F below normal over western parts of the forum area.  I highly doubt that occurs, but yikes.  That is pipe buster city right there.  Generally, IF the MJO eventually rolls slowly through phase 8-1-2 during the coldest part of winter, that would be something to behold.  I am way ahead of myself.  Could easily go wrong.  We have seen cold model runs revert to warm patterns in reality.  So, huge grains of salt.  I refuse to share a foxhole with the CFS.

[Mr. Kevin]

38 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z CFSv2 doubles down on the duration of cold.  The control of that run is extreme with temps during the coldest week of January(second into third week) nearly 30F below normal over western parts of the forum area.  I highly doubt that occurs, but yikes.  That is pipe buster city right there.  Generally, IF the MJO eventually rolls slowly through phase 8-1-2 during the coldest part of winter, that would be something to behold.  I am way ahead of myself.  Could easily go wrong.  We have seen cold model runs revert to warm patterns in reality.  So, huge grains of salt.  I refuse to share a foxhole with the CFS.

I dont take anything for granted lol. It would be nice to see a cold enough pattern for some winter precipitation here regardless how it can happen or develops

[Carvers Gap]

18 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I dont take anything for granted lol. It would be nice to see a cold enough pattern for some winter precipitation here regardless how it can happen or develops

Well, the CFS seems to like your area!   Hang on tight if it is correct....

[John1122]

GFS was awesome that run. The Rex Block Jax mentioned is there over Alaska. 

Banter really, but heading into Christmas eve.

 

[Carvers Gap]

I believe the CFSv2 is off its rocker wrong regarding the MJO.  Go look at it on the CPC site.  You can tell it is not going to correct to its forecast.   I was hoping it would be right, but its MJO plot looks way off.

JB had a post this morning which basically(if I read this correctly) stated that the MJO is not in phase 7 as it is likely being moved erroneously to 7 by the tropical activity in that MJO region.  The OLR maps are a mess due to the cloud cover from the tropical systems.  It is why we see the MJO push into 7 and then abruptly retreats back on all modeling not named the CFS - meaning the tropical system leaves the region and it corrects back.  Once that system exits, the MJO returns to its normal transit as OLR data will be accurate.  It is likely going to get to 8, but it is falsely being pushed along by tropical activity which truly doesn't represent convection for the MJO.  In other words, the MJO is not in phase 7.  More likely the MJO is actually in phase 6(the surface wx over the US reflects that look), and it will crawl from 6 to 8.  This is likely why are seeing modeling jump to cold solutions too quickly.  Models are jumping the gun as the input due to the MJO error is causing havoc.  They likely get to phase 8, but much slower than projected right now - more like early January.  So my advice, proceed with caution as at some point it is going to leave phase 6.  We may not get a ton of lead time.

Positives this AM, blocking is showing up.  Now, is that blocking a result of a flawed MJO number?  No idea.  If the two are connected, all LR modeling is off right now.  It may well be that if the blocking is independent of the MJO, the Atlantic is about to co-drive the bus.  If that is the case the CFS may be on to something.  For me however, the wonky MJO it has produced this morning is evidence that the model is likely partially wrong.  

ALL OF THAT SAID, the CFSv2 did nail the trough after the 20th where other modeling did not.  So for now, we cannot completely toss.  If you are an MJO expert, please free to add or subtract from these comments......

[Daniel Boone]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I believe the CFSv2 is off its rocker wrong regarding the MJO.  Go look at it on the CPC site.  You can tell it is not going to correct to its forecast.   I was hoping it would be right, but its MJO plot looks way off.

JB had a post this morning which basically(if I read this correctly) stated that the MJO is not in phase 7 as it is likely being moved erroneously to 7 by the tropical activity in that MJO region.  The OLR maps are a mess due to the cloud cover from the tropical systems.  It is why we see the MJO push into 7 and then abruptly retreats back on all modeling not named the CFS - meaning the tropical system leaves the region and it corrects back.  Once that system exits, the MJO returns to its normal transit as OLR data will be accurate.  It is likely going to get to 8, but it is falsely being pushed along by tropical activity which truly doesn't represent convection for the MJO.  In other words, the MJO is not in phase 7.  More likely the MJO is actually in phase 6(the surface wx over the US reflects that look), and it will crawl from 6 to 8.  This is likely why are seeing modeling jump to cold solutions too quickly.  Models are jumping the gun as the input due to the MJO error is causing havoc.  They likely get to phase 8, but much slower than projected right now - more like early January.  So my advice, proceed with caution as at some point it is going to leave phase 6.  We may not get a ton of lead time.

Positives this AM, blocking is showing up.  Now, is that blocking a result of a flawed MJO number?  No idea.  If the two are connected, all LR modeling is off right now.  It may well be that if the blocking is independent of the MJO, the Atlantic is about to co-drive the bus.  If that is the case the CFS may be on to something.  For me however, the wonky MJO it has produced this morning is evidence that the model is likely partially wrong.  

ALL OF THAT SAID, the CFSv2 did nail the trough after the 20th where other modeling did not.  So for now, we cannot completely toss.  If you are an MJO expert, please free to add or subtract from these comments......

With all the convection within the 6-7 area, it is possible for a pattern reflecting a 6 to 7.

    Hopefully, the HLB is being instigated thru other dynamics and counters the MJO until when or if it goes cold phases. 

     We can still get snow with enuff blocking regardless.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC pattern looks really good and so does the Euro out to 180.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looky looky:

 

 

Only one run, but that is the best split I've seen on the GFS in a while. Euro is not on board. 

The split is extra interesting on this run of the GFS since it is initially driven by warming over Siberia, but then a seconds warming appears to be propagating up from the NAO region at the very end of the run:

[Mr. Kevin]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z CMC pattern looks really good and so does the Euro out to 180.

I have never liked the cmc because it overhypes cold and precipitation. It's better than it used to be but still not that good imo.

[Mr. Kevin]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looky looky:

 

 

Only one run, but that is the best split I've seen on the GFS in a while. Euro is not on board. 

The split is extra interesting on this run of the GFS since it is initially driven by warming over Siberia, but then a seconds warming appears to be propagating up from the NAO region at the very end of the run:

Until the euro gets on board, its skeptical for me to believe. I like all the models to indicate something like that but I understand its exciting to see

[Carvers Gap]

22 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Until the euro gets on board, its skeptical for me to believe. 

We know.

[John1122]

Curious to see if the weeklies have changed. Saw some tweets earlier that they are performing horribly so far this fall and early winter, having completely missed several troughs/cold shots.  Carvers has noted they struggle as the seasons change. Will have to see if they stabilize at some point and start actually coming close.

[Carvers Gap]

25 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I have never liked the cmc because it overhypes cold and precipitation. It's better than it used to be but still not that good imo.

The Euro/EPS completely and totally whiffed on the trough after the 20th.  It was the last on board.  It is always safe to bet warm in the south though.

[Mr. Kevin]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro/EPS completely and totally whiffed on the trough after the 20th.  It was the last on board.  It is always safe to bet warm in the south though.

We just want cold enough for winter precipitation here. Last February was an anomaly for sure. 

[Carvers Gap]

Euro does well, because it has a warm bias.  It is almost always the last to effectively model cold.  When the pattern is warm, it does well.  Of late the Euro Weeklies just basically have been wash, rinse, repeat of whatever the first two weeks are.  Been pretty much useless.  They and the EPS have not had realistic modeling during the past couple of months IMO - just total repeats of the first few days of each run.  GEFS has not been much better.   The Euro right now is to warm what the CFS is to cold - biased.  That said if one knows the bias, they can still work with it.  Still a good model.   I could be wrong, but I don’t think the Weeklies will change...but who knows.  Euro is not good IMBY until about January.  Shoulder season for the Euro is tough.  I much prefer the GFS and CMC are much preferred as they can see cold.  Now, by Jan the Euro is the boss.  

[Met1985]

39 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Until the euro gets on board, its skeptical for me to believe. I like all the models to indicate something like that but I understand its exciting to see

Eh the Euro is not what it used to be. It's better to have consistency across the board than just one model.

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

We just want cold enough for winter precipitation here. Last February was an anomaly for sure. 

I have no idea what that last sentence means.

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

I have no idea what that last sentence means.

I think he was talking about the severe cold snap in the mid section of the country.  But I can remember when we would get at least a few night of below zero readings every winter.

[Mr. Kevin]

4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I think he was talking about the severe cold snap in the mid section of the country.  But I can remember when we would get at least a few night of below zero readings every winter.

I was actually. It dont usually snow alot with temperature in the teens here. We can go many years without even getting temps in the teens in my local area lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The EPS suggest a mean nudge west on the SE ridge, late in the run. This is the first I've seen it try to do that:

Seems to be in response to the -NAO pushing west. I don't have access to the run-to-run changes, but I bet they'd look  nice for this one run. 

[Mr. Kevin]

9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The EPS suggest a mean nudge west on the SE ridge, late in the run. This is the first I've seen it try to do that:

Seems to be in response to the -NAO pushing west. I don't have access to the run-to-run changes, but I bet they'd look  nice for this one run. 

Definitely want to see a west based nao or its going to be difficult in our area with the alutian ridge too far west. Hopefully we can get there

[John1122]

Webb noted the EPS is struggling with the -NAO still. It's very hard to have that and a SE Ridge. The best thing about right now, is that winter hasn't really started for any of us yet. We can get snow in December but it's much less common than the months to come. We are still a solid month away from the beginning of prime snow/cold climatology for the area. If we are at January 10th, have received nothing and still hoping for a SSW or some kind of blocking to actually happen we might be in trouble, but even then we've had later winters that turned severe. I believe the aforementioned 2015 had a cold shot around New Years then warmed for a long stretch before mid February brought about 2 weeks of the most brutal winter conditions many of us had experienced since the mid 1990s.

[Mr. Kevin]

15 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Webb noted the EPS is struggling with the -NAO still. It's very hard to have that and a SE Ridge. The best thing about right now, is that winter hasn't really started for any of us yet. We can get snow in December but it's much less common than the months to come. We are still a solid month away from the beginning of prime snow/cold climatology for the area. If we are at January 10th, have received nothing and still hoping for a SSW or some kind of blocking to actually happen we might be in trouble, but even then we've had later winters that turned severe. I believe the aforementioned 2015 had a cold shot around New Years then warmed for a long stretch before mid February brought about 2 weeks of the most brutal winter conditions many of us had experienced since the mid 1990s.

If the -qbo is legit, it should help the mjo propagation into colder phases, which kinda makes sense and either Webber or griteater mentioned that as a potential 

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

If the -qbo is legit, it should help the mjo propagation into colder phases, which kinda makes sense and either Webber or griteater mentioned that as a potential 

It is literally what folks have been saying on this subforum here for 2-3 months.  Glad those two could join the party.

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

Webb noted the EPS is struggling with the -NAO still. It's very hard to have that and a SE Ridge. The best thing about right now, is that winter hasn't really started for any of us yet. We can get snow in December but it's much less common than the months to come. We are still a solid month away from the beginning of prime snow/cold climatology for the area. If we are at January 10th, have received nothing and still hoping for a SSW or some kind of blocking to actually happen we might be in trouble, but even then we've had later winters that turned severe. I believe the aforementioned 2015 had a cold shot around New Years then warmed for a long stretch before mid February brought about 2 weeks of the most brutal winter conditions many of us had experienced since the mid 1990s.

And indeed the Euro Weeklies are latching onto a pronounced -NAO and high latitude blocking scheme during the second week of January.  Looks like the CFSv2 but without the initial cold shot that the CFS has.  Good call...you called your shot on that earlier this afternoon about those changing.  Also, great post.  Models struggle with blocking.  And totally agree about winter really not even starting for us yet.  And yes, if we are having the same conversation about four weeks from now...different story!  But anyway, Weeklies are now on board for better or worse. 

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, Met1985 said:

I think he was talking about the severe cold snap in the mid section of the country.  But I can remember when we would get at least a few night of below zero readings every winter.

Yeah, I didn't know what anomaly he was referring to....if he was talking about La Nina's producing cold or just February being cold or what.  For the record, extreme cold(though rare at this latitude)...if it is going to happen a weak La Nina is great bet.  84-85 have been showing up in analog packages of late.  95-96 is also similar.  The cold snap of 17-18 comes to mind as well.  NOT saying that will happen this winter, but saying a weak La Nina is going to be wall-to-wall warm is shaky, shaky ground.  It can happen as it did during the late 90s, but man, they can go super cold as well.  It is just a pattern of extremes.  A pattern such as this has produced some forgettable warmth and memorable cold. But if we want a shot at wild weather, this is the pattern.  

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The EPS suggest a mean nudge west on the SE ridge, late in the run. This is the first I've seen it try to do that:

Seems to be in response to the -NAO pushing west. I don't have access to the run-to-run changes, but I bet they'd look  nice for this one run. 

Can you produce a Weeklies 500 gif?  Thanks, man!