December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

We torch.

 

3 hours ago, ldub23 said:

The  JB storms keep piling  up the snow. He  nailed  it  months ago

 

 

[Vice-Regent]

If it ends up in the middle then it would be like a continuation of what we have now which sucks massively.

On the other hand I have reconsidered my desires for an EF5 to rip through @psuhoffman's house.

[Chris78]

There's our Dec. 5th snow on the 18z gfs

[WinterWxLuvr]

That’s exactly the way to get a good storm in early December. IIRC that’s pretty much how we got Dec 5, 2009

10 days out so likely fantasy.

[Heisy]

13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s exactly the way to get a good storm in early December. IIRC that’s pretty much how we got Dec 5, 2009

10 days out so likely fantasy.

Seeing some agreement for a +PNA in this time frame. Cold air possibly available, but as always will need timing between two waves to get the job done. For example, on the 18z GFS you see how the trough kind of elongates where the lead wave lays the cold air down and the back end of the trough digs and turns the corner...something like that. Euro is an example of what wouldn't work where you just get one really strong low out of the trough at 240 hrs.  Something to keep an eye on because there isn't much potential until then 

[midatlanticweather]

Model watching is not all that great in the long-range. A lot of switching, false hope, false heartbreak. Not sure we can be sure of anything! 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6z GEFS….P25 please…Day 9-10 storm has been on the models for a couple of days now.  Something to watch…

[poolz1]

As Wentz said, that transitory +PNA is key.  Ops are jumping around with it's placement but the signal is there for a ridge to pop.  Ens are showing it as well but are just a little washed...plenty of uncertainty on placement, strength and orientation.

Some interesting ingredients are there.  Plenty of Arctic air ready to be tapped just prior to any ridging going up.

 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS…. Toss the 6Z.   Week of December 6 still needs to be watched.  

 

[NorthArlington101]

51 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS…. Toss the 6Z.   Week of December 6 still needs to be watched.  

Think we can say the period needs to be watched without tossing random OP runs, haha.

The GEFS are definitely active from the 5th-8th. Hopefully there is something fun in that period. 

[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Think we can say the period needs to be watched without tossing random OP runs, haha.

The GEFS are definitely active from the 5th-8th. Hopefully there is something fun in that period. 

This is about all that can be said at this juncture. Lots of intricate wave interaction/timing, and not exactly a classic h5 look on the means for lowland snow at the beginning of December. Sometimes it can all fall into place though with a well timed PNA ridge and all the shortwaves end up in the right places with the required spacing.

[Chris78]

Euro gives Northern MD about a 4 hour period of snow late Saturday night into Sunday morning with up to about 1" on accumulation. 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

[Weather Will]

Euro definitely keeps me interested in the period next weekend although it is blowing up a different shortwave from GFS.  Lots to watch over the next week….at least there is some cold air in the Northern Hemisphere to give us some chances….

[Heisy]

Ugly 00z euro run. Not much to get excited about on tonight's model suite that's for sure.

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Ugly 00z euro run. Not much to get excited about on tonight's model suite that's for sure.

Check out the ensembles 

[Weather Will]

Looking at the MJO plots, looks like we slide into Phase 7 which is more favorable after the first week of December.  So hopefully the ensembles will reflect a colder and stormier look after that timeframe.  Extended WB GEFS still holds out hope for some snow in December.

[MillvilleWx]

Current GFS running shows something different with regards to the mean longwave pattern across the Conus. Earlier this week, we saw a greater wave pattern with a strongly meridional component to the flow aloft. Now we see a more zonal pattern with lowering heights from 60N down to 40N, but minimal undulations to cause a distinct pattern for synoptic development. It's a bit interesting considering the total 180 done from even just 3 days ago. Regardless, the colder outlook is promising for the long term with brief warm ups intermittently thrown into the mix on the lead side of progressive s/w's ripping through the flow. Want to see a greater involvement of these s/w's dropping further south to provide more ascent south of the Mason Dixon, but this was a potential with the December pattern given analogs, so we'll see. I still like the second half of winter for the east coast with regards to snow and increasing baroclinicity east of the Apps, so all is not lost. I'll be stopping by when something looks more formidable. The disturbance for Sunday looks to be a little too far north to give any appreciable flakes outside the northern reaches of the sub, and even then, mainly mood flakes. 

Have a great day y'all!

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Current GFS running shows something different with regards to the mean longwave pattern across the Conus. Earlier this week, we saw a greater wave pattern with a strongly meridional component to the flow aloft. Now we see a more zonal pattern with lowering heights from 60N down to 40N, but minimal undulations to cause a distinct pattern for synoptic development. It's a bit interesting considering the total 180 done from even just 3 days ago. Regardless, the colder outlook is promising for the long term with brief warm ups intermittently thrown into the mix on the lead side of progressive s/w's ripping through the flow. Want to see a greater involvement of these s/w's dropping further south to provide more ascent south of the Mason Dixon, but this was a potential with the December pattern given analogs, so we'll see. I still like the second half of winter for the east coast with regards to snow and increasing baroclinicity east of the Apps, so all is not lost. I'll be stopping by when something looks more formidable. The disturbance for Sunday looks to be a little too far north to give any appreciable flakes outside the northern reaches of the sub, and even then, mainly mood flakes. 

Have a great day y'all!

Thinking similar regarding Dec and the greater chances later in winter. In my outlook I noted the strong anchored TPV, the progressive and fast PJ (Nina) and the NAO/AO as our key players this year. Also noted the record PDO which will play a role especially as we move ahead. I was on the fence with BN snowfall and much above (went with BN for my region) because based on what we see right now and historical given a Nina, makes sense to err on the BN side. But what was keeping me on the fence was the hangover neg NAO and AO from last winter and also was a background state this fall. I was thinking if those 2 tellies play nice, we could easily jump into the AN category....it won't take an historic blocking episode. Just periodically work in tandem to push this active PJ under our regions and we are gold. However, we are seeing those favorable tellies fade fast, and I'm not so sure they will be a background state or even show themselves again until after Christmas. Personally, not a huge fan of what I am seeing moving a couple weeks into Dec but this was also expected to a degree. 

Eta: we probably won't 'torch' this year with +20 AN temps for stretches,  but most of us will likely be pulling our hair out for periods and grow tired as the flow is fast and mid 40s to low 50s become common with the bulk of wintry weather farther N. We will get our shots, but this is probably going to require patience to the nth degree this winter.  

[Vice-Regent]

We should all change our names to Lowershoresadness and accept our inevitable snowless future.

[Prestige Worldwide]

say it ain’t so Joe - looks like strat warm prayers have started early.  

[IronTy]

53 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

say it ain’t so Joe - looks like strat warm prayers have started early.  

What happened to cold December Joe?  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

say it ain’t so Joe - looks like strat warm prayers have started early.  

For some reason I initially read "Big Stratwarm" as "Big Strawman"!!  Maybe that's more appropriate! 

[Maestrobjwa]

33 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

For some reason I initially read "Big Stratwarm" as "Big Strawman"!!  Maybe that's more appropriate! 

Was about to say...it fits! Lol Tbh I'm not convinced the strat warm really does anything...I mean, has it in the past?

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Was about to say...it fits! Lol Tbh I'm not convinced the strat warm really does anything...I mean, has it in the past?

It does "something", depending on the suddenness and the magnitude of the warming, but the actual impacts and locations of such are pretty unpredictable. It is something weather dweebs mostly pay attention to when the winter has sucked badly and time is running short, or the advertised pattern is otherwise boring af and not conducive to cold and snow.

[Chris78]

51 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It does "something", depending on the suddenness and the magnitude of the warming, but the actual impacts and locations of such are pretty unpredictable. It is something weather dweebs mostly pay attention to when the winter has sucked badly and time is running short, or the advertised pattern is otherwise boring af and not conducive to cold and snow.

Usually it grasping at straws or a hell Mary so to  speak lol. 

[dallen7908]

Here is a preprint of a recent un-reviewed article on the impact of SSW on European winter weather.  Worth the skim. 

https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/2206/

[yoda]

Hmmm

 

[frd]

Interesting despite the gloomy prospects of an early winter in the East.  

 

[frd]

 

 

Also of note, the potential of a favorable MJO passage later in December, however, the amplitude remains uncertain. Still, something to keep track of in the days ahead.