December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

[Jebman]

15 hours ago, Stormfly said:

1993-94 winter was a mess!  Using up 3 weeks of leave by March due to impassible roads (ice) was no fun!

Wow I remember that winter! Ice jebwalks are the very best! It was ice after ice after ice! I was savoring leisurely ice jebwalk after leisurely ice jebwalk, dancing on the ice like Michael Jackson while everyone else was falling HARD busting their hips on the solid glacier!

[CAPE]

Teleconnections on the 0z GEFS for the beginning of Jan: Significantly negative AO and NAO, -EPO, slightly negative PNA. EPS is very similar.

As advertised that h5 look is probably about as good as it gets in a Nina. Will it verify, and will it actually produce anything? Watching it play out will be the 'fun' part, weather weenies.

[GramaxRefugee]

4 hours ago, Jebman said:

Wow I remember that winter! Ice jebwalks are the very best! It was ice after ice after ice! I was savoring leisurely ice jebwalk after leisurely ice jebwalk, dancing on the ice like Michael Jackson while everyone else was falling HARD busting their hips on the solid glacier!

But...we were all 28 years younger then. (Strong as an ox, and nearly as smart.)

[Prestige Worldwide]

Don’t get too excited about the change- hopefully we can score in the window of time 

[Solution Man]

Haymarket VA weather Christmas Day:

weather.com 65/45

accuweather.com 45/31

I guess the truth is in the middle 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

Haymarket VA weather Christmas Day:

weather.com 65/45

accuweather.com 45/31

I guess the truth is in the middle 

My WeatherBug app shows 58F for the high in Huntingtown.  It's about as accurate as anything else at this range so I'll go with that.  

[Solution Man]

Just now, IronTy said:

My WeatherBug app shows 58F for the high.  It's about as accurate as anything else at this range so I'll go with that.  

That’s near the middle….will go with that 

[Weather Will]

Doesn’t seem very positive to be talking about the end of the major pattern to more wintry weather before it even gets started.  But if the WB GEFS extended control from last evening which now goes through Jan 22 were to verify, most of us would see January as a good month.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

That’s near the middle….will go with that 

If it’s full sun we’ll see 70 in w PWC. I’ll bet my stocking on it. 

[aldie 22]

30 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Don’t get too excited about the change- hopefully we can score in the window of time 

So the group that's already wrong and amends their call gets corrected by a guy saying the incorrect call will end by mid January. Makes sense to me....where can i send money to these guys to further their expert research.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Doesn’t seem very positive to be talking about the end of the major pattern to more wintry weather before it even gets started.  But if the GEFS extended control which now goes through Jan 22 were to verify, most of us would see January as a good month.

The ens mean is 4-6" for areas east of the mountains for the same period. LR snow maps all suck, but isolating the control run is utterly useless. We could each draw up our best eye candy maps and it would be just as likely to verify.. as in not likely.

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Doesn’t seem very positive to be talking about the end of the major pattern to more wintry weather before it even gets started.  But if the WB GEFS extended control from last evening which now goes through Jan 22 were to verify, most of us would see January as a good month.

As dumb as this product is, I love the fact that DC has more snow on that clown map than NYC.  It’d be mass weenie suicide in the NYC forum if that happens.

[BlizzardNole]

10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

As dumb as this product is, I love the fact that DC has more snow on that clown map than NYC.  It’d be mass weenie suicide in the NYC forum if that happens.

How about Short Pump with 25" and PSU-ville less than 10 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

So the group that's already wrong and amends their call gets corrected by a guy saying the incorrect call will end by mid January. Makes sense to me....where can i send money to these guys to further their expert research.

You need to be involved in #natgas. Only then - and with a substantial outlay - will you get the good stuff from them.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

You need to be involved in #natgas. Only then - and with a substantial outlay - will you get the good stuff from them.

Bet the same for JB.  I’d love to see his real thoughts when money is on the line for his clients.  My gas heat hasn’t kicked on in days…and probably won’t that much through the next 2 weeks or so. 

[Baltimorewx]

Thinking Santa will be coming down our chimney looking like this around these parts..leave margaritas out with the cookies instead of milk 

[nw baltimore wx]

51 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Thinking Santa will be coming down our chimney looking like this around these parts..leave margaritas out with the cookies instead of milk 

That looks like John Daly on tv now at the PNC. Which, by the way, is a lot of fun to watch.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Cold today.. -NAO comes into initialization, and it really fades out on LR models. 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Cold today.. -NAO comes into initialization, and it really fades out on LR models. 

Thanks a pant load Chuck

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Cold today.. -NAO comes into initialization, and it really fades out on LR models. 

Well Chuck, a new year is upon us and here we are.  We both know what's coming in future replies.   Gird your loins.  

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Cold today.. -NAO comes into initialization, and it really fades out on LR models. 

Now if you had said the -EPO has faded on the last couple runs of the GEFS, I might agree.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Even though ssta's to me look like 2011, one major difference is the MJO that December was closer to phase 5.  Right now we're close to 7.  If blocking develops as modeled down the stretch, then we could luck out.  I also remember Bob Chill saying -NAO during the Fall is a good sign for NAO in winter.  I'm still skeptical, but more uncertain.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS  thru day 16 does not show cold air pressing

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z Can ensembles are more encouraging..

[psuhoffman]

I think this is worth pointing out. Something I’ve known but REALLY stuck out when I was updating some of my snowfall data spreadsheets recently was the fact that the biggest change in our snow climo seems to be the fact we don’t squeeze many minor snowfall events out of bad patterns anymore.  
 

Imo where our climo has taken a hit most is 2 places, marginal temp events that used to be 32-33 degree snowfalls 30+ years ago don’t work now and bad patterns are such torches now that you can almost forget about sneaking some lucky 1-3” event in during them. The boundary just isn’t likely to be close enough even behind waves when every ridge goes ape now. So bad patterns are now always a total shutout.  We used to eek out some snows in not good patterns, not so much recently. 
 

The good news is our luck in good patterns doesn’t seem to have changed that much. DC always only averaged about 1 warning event per season. That is still true the last 20 years. When we do get a good look it does still snow. I also don’t think the prevalence of getting good patterns is changing. I know we just went through several years of +NAO but it looks like that cycle has flipped predictably. We always spend more time in not so good patterns.  We’re too far south for the majority of combinations to work. Spending 60-70% of the time in a pattern not “good” for snow is normal. 
 

It’s just our typical climo went from spending 2/3 of the time in patterns that weren’t good but still lucking our way to some minor snowfalls then 1/3 in good patterns when we could get warning level events to now spending 2/3 in total shut out no hope torch patterns then praying we cash in during the 1/3 when we have decent patterns because we have to get all our snow then!  I know that’s really frustrating but that’s just our reality now.  
 

 

[CAPE]

Need to watch the 'trends' on the means with the Pacific ridge in the LR. Really want that more poleward (-EPO) rather than a broad, flat ridge further south/west, otherwise it might be tough to get cold air bleeding southeastward without a hella west based -NAO. The GEFS  has moved in that direction, although it seems to shift the ridge northward right at the end of the run. That's the primary reason for it delaying the eastward progression of cold, but the -NAO is also less impressive the last couple runs. Really need that to be stout if the Pac isn't going to be at least somewhat favorable.

[Weather Will]

Let see what the EURO ensembles show, but I would love to see a better sign of a major pattern change within the next 2 weeks.  There was never a guarantee of a storm, but it would be nice to get a window of opportunity in January.  I don’t see it yet.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Need to watch the 'trends' on the means with the Pacific ridge in the LR. Really want that more poleward (-EPO) rather than a broad, flat ridge further south/west, otherwise it might be tough to get cold air bleeding southeastward without a hella west based -NAO. The GEFS  has moved in that direction, although it seems to shift the ridge northward right at the end of the run. That's the primary reason for it delaying the eastward progression of cold, but the -NAO is also less impressive the last couple runs. Really need that to be stout if the Pac isn't going to be at least somewhat favorable.

The gefs really deepens the trough west of AK then extends it east which prevents the linking of the pac and atl which is what we need.  The geps and eps doesn’t do that so let’s just hope it’s a mistaken handling of one feature. I’ll also trust analog pattern progression based constructs over NWP simulations at those ranges. It’s worth keeping an eye on but I still like where we are in terms of our January prospects (relative to Nina expectations!). 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Let see what the EURO ensembles show, but I would love to see a better sign of a major pattern change within the next 2 weeks.  There was never a guarantee of a storm, but it would be nice to get a window of opportunity in January.  I don’t see it yet.

Because you don’t want to see it.  Analog based projections on where we are now (mjo phase 6/7 in Dec with a -NAO) roll forward into a cold January. Btw since some are worried about how far the mjo progresses a phase 7 in a January Nina is a pretty good look anyways.  Seversl consecutive runs the last 48 hours all 3 major ensembles showed a great look in early Jan. But you focused on the data that supported your fear. Now the gefs had a bad run and you are focusing on that. Even if it showed the same thing it did yesterday would it matter?  It didn’t yesterday!  

[Amped]

The PNA hates us.